rocket surgery

Sheets to the wins

2010-01-27T09:36:00.001-08:00

Pitching, pitching, pitching.

Athletics great Rollie Fingers has been quoted as saying "Baseball is 90% pitching". That makes sense, coming form a pitcher, but may seem a bit lopsided, as hitting, base running and defense need to figure in somewhere. Such an analysis would favor a club like the A's, who have made their focus to be building a stable of young hurlers (arguably at the cost of any viable offense).

The emphasis is even more understandable, considering the setting. Oakland's massive foul territory, cavernous outfields, and dense marine layer air all favor the pitcher, resulting in a .20 drop in batting averages. This setting, ideal for a fledgling pitching staff can dampen offensive production, and also limits Oakland's ability to attract free agent hitters.

So what does a pitching-heavy team, in a pitcher's park do to improve their roster? Sign a big name free agent pitcher. Obviously.

In a move that is sure to please A's fans, Billy Beane singed 4 time All Star Ben Sheets to a 1 year contract, at $10MM plus incentives. Not bad for a guy who didn't throw a single pitch in 2009. Coming off rotator cuff surgery and a year rehabbing, the 31 year old Sheets will either return to form, or fall short of the staff ace role he played in Milwaukee over the last 5 years. Oakland fans have their fingers crossed. Sheets' career 3.72 ERA goes a long way to mitigate risk of injury, or least make the risk worthwhile.

Whereas Sheets does add a veteran presence to a young staff, and a brand name to the roster, his effectiveness has yet to be determined. In classic Oakland fashion, Beane reserves the ability to trade him at the deadline should the As' fall from contention. This tactic has netted the bulk of of young talent in the A's system over the last 3 years, and helped replenish one of the strongest minor league systems in baseball.

This first half-commitment to the last 3 seasons has been particularly difficult for fans, but those in the know understand it. Each season requires an effort to field a competitive team, but a competitive team means 25 players of major league caliber. Those valuable pieces don't grow on trees, and often have to be self-incubated. The A's made their push in 2006, and continue to pay the price, having to re-tool, and re-aim for 2011.

So far the process is going well, at the cost of finishing sub .500 3 years in a row. Whether or not the 1 year addition of Ben Sheets accelerates the goal remains to be seen.

The Shift is On

2010-01-05T10:07:00.001-08:00

The new year is upon us and the stove is getting hot. I haven't written an update in a while, so here is my first effort of 2010. Pardon the rust.

Defense seems to be the emphasis is Oakland's personnel strategies for 2010. In a surprising move, Beane signed veteran center fielder Coco Crisp, almost guaranteeing his agile outfeild glove and pedestrian batting average a spot in the starting lineup. Crisp is coming off shoulder surgery, and figures to need a proving a proving ground for his career going forward.

Beane also made an offer to high priced Adrian Beltre, one of the elite third baseman in the League, who also batted circa .260 in 2009. Unsurprisingly, Oakland's free agent sorrows continued as their front office watched him sail on by, signing with Boston yesterday for one year, at $10MM. Oakland's offer was not disclosed.

Oakland fans are quite used to seeing big names chose bigger destinations. Nothing new there.

But, a fan may ask them self why the great interest in expensive free agents who do little to fortify Oakland's lingering offense? Isn't that counterproductive? A more informed fan might see rising value in building a sound defense to strengthen the A's greatest asset--their young pitching staff.

It would seem offense is not the highest priority for the A's in 2010.

The plan was always 2011, according to Beane. The recent acquisition of top prospect Micheal Taylor adds depth to a promising young offense in Oakland's minor league system that includes the #1 hitting prospect in minor league baseball, Chris Carter. Crisps' one year deal seems to validate that premise, as his true value is not his bat, but his ability to keep outfield shots from becoming hits. With plus defense behind a stable of young fireballers, Beane seems to think another year of development for the rotation is necessary before making the real push.

He may be right.

The all-rookie platoon of Gio Gonzalez, Vin Mazzaro and recently repaired Josh Outman will be back and competing for the 5th spot in the rotation. All present tremendous upside and risk, as all have had shaky and dominant outings in 2009. This year will hope to separate the wheat from the chaff.

Trevor Cahill showed flashes of brilliance, finishing at 10-13, and still features a ton of promise for a 21 year old right hander. He will likely pitch in the 4th spot, and if he can limit the home runs, he may evolve into the elite young talent he was projected to be.

Dallas Braden enjoyed a career season, coming out of nowhere and achieving 8 wins and a 3.89 ERA while serving as the A's defacto staff ace. The jury is out on his ability to repeat that performance, which would land him a #3 spot in just about any MLB organization. Even still, he is not the question mark some of the other youngsters seem to be.

The true prize stallion is 22 year old Brett Anderson, included in rookie of the year conversation with an 11-11 record and 150 big league stikeouts. That is not achieved by accident. With some run support, his 4.06 ERA may yield a few more wins this year. It will certainly be enough to earn him the #2 spot, behind Justin Duscherer.

It takes a confluence of many moving parts to build a championship roster. Especially on a budget. This takes time and would seem to be aiming for the next 2 to 3 year window. The free agent signings of 2009 either represent bad judgement, or a quick fix to get the team through a year of experimental pitching. No one knows but the man himself. The experiment continues into 2010 with one goal: a dominant, young, inexpensive pitching staff to ride into the next decade.

The Death of Moneyball?

2009-09-15T17:08:00.000-07:00

Much has changed in the six years since Michael Lewis’ groundbreaking book, Moneyball, brought the Oakland A’s and Billy Beane’s unorthodox management strategies into the public sphere.

Tampa Bay is the reigning AL Champion, the Yankees spent a mindboggling $400 plus million in the offseason (on 3 free agents) and Oakland sits dead last in the uncelebrated AL West.

Could we all see this coming?

Some would argue that 2009 is an anomaly, a speedbump in Oakland’s next rise to prominence.

Some say it’s just bad timing; the market readjusted during a rebuilding season. Others, however, are more certain of the causes.

Moneyball has failed.

Billy Beane is a fraud.

Haters are unanimous in their outcry.

Just ask a Giants fan.

As they chase the NL wild card from their China Basin digs, they look across the Bay and see an aging, cavernous ballpark, a small time payroll, and a revolving door of Oakland’s most celebrated players.

They see bush league.

KNBR newsies coined a cute little phrase: “The AAA’s”… as in: all prospects, no major league talent.

Needless to say, Giants fans with short memories love this.

Unlike the A’s, the men in orange and black have not enjoyed a winning season in years, so they’re riding this wave for all it’s worth. Part of the ride means boasting a nouveau-riche dismissal of moneyball, as a concept, and Beane, as its executor.

Whatever Moneyball means, it doesn’t mean much in Oakland right now.

But maybe there is some value in what happened earlier this decade.

Maybe there are other franchises who have taken direction from what Billy Beane did a few years ago. Maybe a good example would be the Red Sox. Maybe the Yankees, the Dodgers, and even the Giants have followed suit.

So maybe we should qualify some terms. What IS “Moneyball”?

In its purest sense, Moneyball means finding value in undervalued assets.

As in Bobby Abreu or Jason Giambi. They’re old. Their best years are behind them, and that means they could come at a dramatic discount, like say: $5 million, as opposed to $17 million, which is what happened to Abreu.

Deals can be found when one is willing to reconsider “value”.

In other words: Buy Low.·

Conversely, one can exploit the market by trading away over-valued assets, like, say, two months of Matt Holiday, for five years of three high level prospects.

Because the 2009 A’s were not in a playoff push, the value of two months of Holiday is low. But to the Cardinals, who are trying to make the post season, those 2 months are an extremely valuable commodity.

In other words: Sell high.

The other essential component of Moneyball is finding undiscovered value by using new, innovative methodologies.

In Lewis’ book, the A’s realized that batting average and RBIs were misleading stats that teams payed too much for. So instead, they targeted palyers with high on base percentage because those highly disciplined hitters flew under the radar of other teams, and could thus be acquired by Oakland’s limited budget.

Both BA and OBP are offensive metrics, but only one was dramtically undervalued.

Finally, the Moneyball philosphy placed unpercedented importance on the draft, and building teams inetrnally.

The A’s could never sign a free agent like Mark Texiera. Small market teams do not patriciptae in the bid-high world of free agency, so they have to build teams through their minor league systems and the draft.

They used homegrown methods to develop homegrown prospects and thus built teams from the inside.

To the average fan, those all seem like pretty sound concepts.

But haters remind us that the A’s are 49 - 62.

Obvisouly Moneyball has failed, right?

Wrong.

The success of the Moneyball philosophy is not limited to green and gold. In fact, big market teams may be the best exapmples of Moneyball at work, and the greatest testament to Moneyball is the adoption of its practices by teams who didn’t have to use them.

As ESPN’s Buster Olney points out:

“Big-market teams, such as the Red Sox and Yankees, smartly began to drink from the same draft-and-develop trough that the Athletics, and others had drawn for years.”

Granted, the A’s haven’t exactly put up lights-out numbers these past few years.

There are many explanations for this, but perhaps the most convincing is what Olney suggests: that the secret’s out.

Once Lewis’ book was released in 2003, and the dirt-broke A’s posted three consecutive 95 plus win seasons, teams started to take notice.
All of a sudden, clubs began to reconsider how they evaluated talent. According to ESPN’s Howard Bryant, “Beane became the lead evangelist of a new baseball orthodoxy that emphasizes greater statistical analysis in the scouting and development of players”.
Baseball was getting smarter.
A new school of baseball thinking was being quietly ushered in.

The Boston Red Sox were early adopters.

In 2003, they offered Beane the largest contract in history to lead their club. He declined, and decided to stay in Oakland. So, instead, they decided to implement the strategies he made famous.

Boston CEO Larry Lucchino hired fellow SaberMetrics aficionado, Theo Epstein, to replenish their nascent farm system and minor league affiliates. They nurtured high OBP players like Kevin Youklis and Dustin Pedroia into some of the most fearsome hitters in the game today, and built stables of young pitching around prospects like Josh Beckett and Jonathan Papelbon. They also used their deep pockets to acquire big time free agents like Manny Ramirez, and, viola—no more curse.

As Red Sox Lucchino admitted:

“Billy Beane is a sharp mind. We tried to hire him, but what we've done since Theo took over is to take some of the quantitative analysis approaches and overlay them with the resource advantages of our market."

In essence, what Boston did was marry Moneyball with money.

The result: 2 World Series titles in the last 5 years.

Not to be outdone, the Yankees began efforts to draft smarter.

In GM Brian Cashman’s own words:

“Statistical analysis comes into play in defining the reality of the performance. Trends that show risk, injury, regression -- maybe you can catch that earlier because it's definable.”

The key similarity with Boston (and advantage over Oakland) is that Yankees don’t have to substitute one value for another. They can buy any combination of OBP and home runs. The idea that Brian Cashman’s checkbook is consulting Billy Beane’s notebook can be a scary thought for the rest of baseball.

More examples?

How about them Dodgers?

In 2004, LA hired former A’s assistant GM Paul DePodesta to bring some of that analytical Oakland A’s magic to the NL.

He took them to the playoffs in 2004 and went on to champion the tenets of Moneyball in San Diego, where he took the Padres to the NL West Divisional series in 2006 and 2007.

So, haters, please take note; Moneyball is NOT dead.

It is alive and well.

It has evolved into industry standard knowledge, and has improved the efficiency of any team willing to give it a try.

And where does this leave the A’s?

The reality is, that Oakland still sits in the bottom ten of all Major League payrolls.
Resources are limited. And now that Beane’s innovations have been exploited by everyone else, they face a new burden of having to re-innovate further advances.

At this point, rebuilding via trades has seemed to be the most productive route.

Clichés aside, 2009 is a rebuilding season. Oakland has five talented 22 year-old starting pitchers locked in for the next four seasons.

Despite this year’s numbers, Beane has to like his chances going forward.

For the remaining haters, consider this: no team aside from New York and Boston has won more games since 2000 than the Oakland A’s.

What has your GM done for baseball lately?

Casualty Report

2009-07-13T11:06:00.001-07:00

Is it just me, or does it feel like A's fans have found cover behind an abandoned bunker at the All-Star break? Someone pass the first aid kit. The firing has stopped for a week, and we could really use this lull to lick our wounds and suppress the bleeding. Medic! Request paper bag with eyeholes, STAT!

"There are a lot of guys who need a break on this team" said Mark Ellis, who by the way just came off the DL 2 weeks ago. 37-49 at the mid-season break is the worst we've seen since 1999. It's been frustrating to say the least.

Casualty report:

Plenty happening on the front lines. Most of it falls into the "negative" category.

Today Sean Gallagher was sent to San Diego as "the player to be named later", thereby completing the Scott Hariston trade. Gallagher struggled mightily in the Big Leagues, giving up 12 earned runs in his last 12 innings. Although he's still only 23, and hence offers potential upside, his 7.14 ERA and 2 atrocious starts will have most A's fans happy to see him go. The reader can definitely put me in that camp.

Hariston is hitting .261, which, sadly puts him at the upper end of offensive production for the A's. His bat was sought to help a slumping lineup find some stride. His 11 homers put him in front of all but Giambi and Cust, and he is leaving little behind in SD. I like this trade, as he's also under control through 2010, which fills one hole beyond this season (with a guy we didn't grow organically... shocking).

With the body count totals rising, the A's sent a couple of minor league pitchers to Tampa Bay for journeyman 2nd baseman Adam Kennedy. Substantially less expensive than Giambi, Kennedy has proven to be one of Oakland's more productive hitters, and went from a bench role in Tampa to an everyday starter batting .291 and leading off for the A's. Sad but true, we've been utterly incapable of growing our own hitters. Instead, we've been forced to deal prospects or pick up elderly free agents at a price we can afford. Every now and then, we land a guy like Kennedy, having a career season at age 33.

Organically grown backup 3rd baseman Jack Hannahan was finally shown the door, being dealt to the Mariners for AA pitcher Justin Souza. So much for the homegrown product. Souza is a serviceable releif guy at best, but represents the top end of value for Hannahan, who hit a yawn-insipring .193 in 52 games for the A's. In many ways, Hannahan embodied the underachievement of the A's fledgling offense: a jallopy with a new paintjob: tons of potential, consistently meager numbers. He is the guy we paid too little for, yet somehow expected something from. So long Jack.

Josh Outman, beginning his professional career by going 4-0 was quickly becoming the dark horse rookie phenom until he suffered an elbow injury that led to season ending Tommy John surgery. Dang. He will hopefully be ready to throw next spring. Honestly, after a first half like A's fans have just gone through, Outman's injury felt more like "the routine setback of the week" than a devastating blow to the core of our young rotation. Bad news has a way of softening more bad news.

And it's usually a sign of even more bad news to come. Fellow rookie starter Brett Anderson was pulled after going 2.2 innings against Tampa due to tightness in his back. This is discouraging after watching the young man 3 hit the Boston Red Sox at home, for his first career shutout and complete game. But again, as an A's fan this year, one must re-adjust their threshold for disappointment. There is no verdict yet on his status, and A's fans can only keep their figners crossed.

On the bright side, we've seen signs of strength and poise from a young and unproven collection of starting pitchers. Well, what's left at least. That was supposed to be the A's big question mark this season: the pitching. Instead, we've used 2009 as a filtering mechanism to weed out the unproductive arms, and have come away with a nucleus of young, talented pitchers who project very well into 2010.

Granted, the filtering has come at a cost to our record, and being in the bottom 5 of all teams is never a desirable position. And as we all know, great pitching does no good when your offense produces 1 run a game. Ultimately, a fan needs to be able to find value in some part of this otherwise terrible season.

Dallas Braden seems undeterred by the noise. His hardheadedness has won him a team best 7-7 record, but that's more the result of poor run support than inconsistency. In fact, Braden has been very impressive, not allowing more than 2 runs in his last 10 starts. He missed his last start due to family illness, and returned to form Saturday, holding the Rays to 2 runs and locking in his 5th win in 7 starts. Braden was not the guy I envisioned earning the Ace spot, but he has, and with little support. Credit the underdog.

Vin Mazzaro, who opened his career with 15 scoreless innings has come back down to Earth, losing his last 5 starts, and sitting precariously at 2-5. There is potential all over this young talent, however, and he has certainly proven he can play at the Major League level.

The A's sent one guy to St Louis; newly anointed closer, 24 year old Andrew Bailey. This kid pretty much came out of nowhere, and went from a AA set up role to icy-veined 10 Save fireballer, with a cut fastball in the mid 90s that has helped him lead all MLB relief pitchers in strikeouts. He won't edge out Mariano Rivera for the closer's role in the All Star Game, but the mention of his name in the same sentence would seem to be sufficient for A's fans this year. Hey, it's something.

Player performances are one thing, but perhaps the true dysfunction lies with leadership. Manager Bob Geren's career record (and personality) floats lifelessly around .460 (187-221, to be exact). For some unknown reason, his modest successes have been enough to earn him a satisfactory approval rating with Billy Beane and ownership. This is a real headscratcher, and leads fans to beleive that lack of action and lack of passion are good enough for A's baseball. Yes, he's had guys traded away. Yes, he's had some rough breaks. But the numbers don't lie, and Geren has not done much to promote a culture of success with Oakland. Does it go deeper?

Personnel aside, this team does not feel like it has a rudder. Chemistry, fan attendance, managerial choices and comparative statistics all seem to come up short, all season. As we take a step back and evaluate 2009 at its mid point, one hopes some changes are on the horizon. Status quo so far has been tantamount to surrender.

The troops are weary, ground has been lost, and we're way, way past diplomacy.

building with steam with building blocks

2009-06-05T08:48:00.001-07:00

There comes a point in the season when a fan refocuses his perspective. At 9 games back in early June, the A's have a long steep hill to climb to catch Texas, and now there may be more compelling storylines than our record.

22-30 is not good. But despite being bottom 5 in MLB, it's not atrocious either. There are still 110 games to play. The season is still early. But as reassuring as that is, looking beyond this season has been a more rewarding practice lately.

The A's started 4 rookies against the White Sox this week. The newly formed rotation of: Dallas Braden, Trevor Cahill, Vin Mazzaro, Josh Outman and Bret Anderson is by far the youngest rotation in Major League Baseball, and they're coming off a very strong week, having given up just 5 runs in the last 4 games.

Vin Mazzaro threw 7 shutout innings of 4-hit ball, in his MLB debut Tuesday. Both he and fellow rookie Brett Anderson blanked a potentially dangerous White Sox offense and earned themselves a big league win. John Outman improved to 3-0 with a 3.06 ERA on the season. Not bad for a 23 year old rookie. Although our bullpen erased a quality start by Cahill, he went 6 and gave up 3 runs.

As good as this week was, last weekend was ugly in equal measure. Outman's 9 K's were not enough to beat first place Texas, and they took 3 of 4 pretty easily. The Oakland offense just couldn't find it's step, and the bullpen is even more janky. So in tough times, the dedicated fan finds reason for hope in other areas. Oakland's silver lining may be our rotation.

The beauty of dealing in young, undiscovered pitching prodigies is that they're inexpensive, and under team control for several years. If these youngsters continue to picth as well as they did last week, the A's would be looking at the youngest, most talented and least expensive rotation in baseball. This last week projects very well on 2010 and beyond.

This is Moneyball at it's best. Beane built out this staff of youngsters by trading away any player with name recognition for handfulls of young prospects. Now we have 22 year old arms for days, and we've filtered through to chaff to find the 5 strongest. If the A's can establish a true nucleus of young fireballers; 5 guys with sub-3.00 ERA's, our chances look very good in fielding a competitive squad for the next few seasons. But that's a big IF. Yes, it takes some time for a rookie to adjust, and yes, it seems liek our guys have found a rhythm. But nothing is established yet.

Nothing hurts an A's fan more than playing to our payroll. Just because we are the 5th brokest team in baseball, it doesn't mean we're condemned to playing like the 5th worst. A's fans have been spoiled to an extent by enjoying superior management that translates to a disproportionately competitive team; at least over the last decade. 2007 and 2008 were especially tough, having made the ALCS in 2006, and seeing every big name player on that roster be dealt away. Rebuilding took its tool. And, though it may still be too early to see the fruits of those moves, glimmers of brilliance are visible.

Tonight the A's head back to Oakland to face a similarly underachieving team in the Baltimore Orioles. They hope to build on a 3 game win steak against a 24-30 club with the 3rd worst ERA in the AL. If we cant take this series, I'm confident we have no shot left at the West in 2009.

signs of life?

2009-05-08T09:09:00.001-07:00

Speculation abounds as to what the A's will do come trade deadline time. Yes, it's still early. The division is far from won, and all 4 teams have beat each other up pretty good so far. One thing is for sure, Beane will not hesitate to deal the big guns if we are not in contention. Right now, the gap is small enough to assume we can be.

Season summary thus far:

Our short term rental in Matt Holiday is finally flashing signs of ROI. He hit a 3 run shot yesterday to tie Jack Cust for most homers hit at 4. Still technically slumping, at .230, Holliday seems to be finding some rhythm, and it couldn't happen sooner. Giambi has yet to find his stride, posting a dismal ground ball ratio and hitting .225. Nomar is predictably plagued by injuries as is fellow infielder (and sugery recoveree) Eric Chavez, and neither have contributed much. Orlando Cabrera has played nothing short of gold glove defense at shortstop, but is hitting .220 with 0 homers.

The young rotation is holding up about as well as we could have hoped. Not stellar, but certainly not bad. The team ERA is 3rd in all of baseball at 3.77 . The young starters are 8th in hits allowed. Pair that with one of the worst offenses in baseball and you get, well: a 10-16 record. Pleasant surprises include Josh Outman and Trevor Cahill's latest performances, posting 6 strikeout and 5 strikeout gems, respectively.

The bullpen is pretty shaken up. With would-be closer Devine out for the season, the responsibility has fallen onto the skinny shoulders of submariner Brad Ziegler. Heavy is the crown, as Ziggy succumbed to a flu that kept him off the field for th last week, only to return Thursday and give up 3 runs in the 9th against Texas. Santiago Casilla sprained his right knee and left his set-up duties to one-year-deal vets Russ Springer and Mike Weurtz. Both have been decent, but not lights out. The true diamond in the rough seems to be young Andrew Bailey, at 3-0 with 24 K's through 19 innings pitched. If he keeps it up, he could find himself pitching more than just late inning relief.

The A's are only 4 games back in the West, and Seattle has lost 4 straight, earnign them a #2 spot, half a game behind Texas at 15-13. It's safe to say this division is soft, and ripe for a take over. What remains to be seen is if the A's are men enough to take it.

gone away on Holliday

2009-05-01T10:09:00.000-07:00

While (sort of) enjoying a sick day this week, I happened to catch a day in the life of Matt Holiday behind-the-scenes on Comcast Bay Area. All told, it was B- entertainment value, C+ education value and surprisingly, quite telling as to the psychological limbo the one time batting champ now finds himself in while playing for Oakland.

Holliday looked uneasy when asked to discuss his new situation. His anxiety was thinly veiled behind a facade of optimsm as he conducted a sports radio interview by cell phone at his Malibu home (one can hardly expect he'd move his family to Oakland). So shaken up was the slugger that he actually thought he was fooling the listener by claiming he was happy with the move. He was glad to be playing for an entirely new team... for one year.

It must be tough, to be traded without warning in a contract year... to go from one of the best hitters parks in the majors to the #1 worst. The world must look a little different in the AL, wearing white shoes and being the highest paid player on one of the smallest payrolls in the game. It must feel like the rug has been pulled under you when you've just gambled by turning down a 4 year, $82MM extension for promise of even bigger dollars, and now those dollars are less certain.

It doesn't take a genius to offer an amateur blogger's psych profile: he feels deflated and cheated. He feels like his destiny has been taken out of his hands. He feels powerless. Naturally, his psyche projects onto his performance, and his hitting has been just that: powerless. Batting a pedestrian .240, with 12 stikeouts, Matt Holliday in green and gold is a far cry from the stud power hitter from Colorado. I guess feeling powerless can be tough.

Well you know what? Boo fuckin' Hoo. It's May 1st and Holiday has 1 home run to show for his $13 million dollar salary. That is both highly unexpected and totally unacceptable. All shake-ups aside, this is pro baseball, and he is a professional. The uniform should be irrelevant when it comes to production, especially in a contract year. If he still has his eyes on that big 7 year deal, Holliday’s next team will not accept excuses for an unprecedented drop in numbers. He needs to quit sulking and pick it up. Now.

The Mark Texieras and A-rods of the game can thank consistency for their record payouts. Well, consistency and Scott Boras. Without solid, regular numbers, player profiles can go from legendary to above-average in a heartbeat. Above-average players get 3 year deals. Legends get 8 figures. Holliday's contract extension offer from Colorado was fair and then some. He elected to let his bat do the talking and homer his way to legend status and legend dollars.... which was great until he was traded away to Oakland. Surprise!

Maybe Colorado felt snubbed. Maybe they knew they couldn't afford him as a free agent. Maybe they saw a chance to rebuild their roster in one feel swoop. Whatever the reason, the Rockies were somehow convinced to deal the face of their franchise to the A's. Holliday's opinion was not solicited.

The A's made an equally bold gamble in trading away 3 of our most promising young ballers in exchange for the slugger. Carlos Gonzales, Greg Smith and 2005 rookie of the year Huston Street made up what looked like a substantial personnel upgrade for Colorado. That trade seems to have worked out in Oakland's favor, as none of the youngsters has yet earned a starting spot.

So here he is. Point of no return. Holliday didn't ask for a trade, but he got one. He didn't ask for a monkeywrench in the gears of his well oiled, high altitude offensive machine... but nonetheless, here he is playing west coast mechanic with a bat. Attitude affects confidence, and confidence is everything in this game where performance pays. It's a compeptive game and a cut throat business, and there are no contracts awarded on goodwill (except for maybe Mike Sweeney). If Matt Holliday feels he's worth the biggest free agent contract of 2009, he's going to need to need to hit a few more homers than 1.

But hey... the season is still young, and the value of the trade for both sides has yet to be determined long term. Players go through slumps and hot spells alike. The future is anyone's guess, but one thing is clear: Matt Holliday looks unsettled, and he has a very limited amount of time to get comfy.

Exhale

2009-04-26T16:48:00.000-07:00

Exhale.

It was getting a pretty rough for a minute. I guess it's hard to be creative in the middle of a 6 game slide. But life is intact. The A's picked up 2 straight against the reigning AL Champions and we the dust has been kicked off. Giambi homered. Buck homered. The veteran of our young pitching staff got his first win, and the A's are on the board in all the right momentum categories.

The AL West is off to an unforeseen beginning, with Seattle having won 20% of last years win total... in April. They're hot at 12-7 and their small lead looks favorably on the 5+ months of baseball yet to play. Texas leads the league in home runs, and having lost some offense-heavy meetings, the hold 2nd place by half a game at 8-10. The Angels are in LAST place, and the highly anticipated and well staffed Oakland offense is inching the A's toward .500.

It wasn't the losses so much as the way were losing. Over the last 2 weeks the A's epitomized baseball futility. We were batting .200, pitching with 3 shut outs up until yesterday. We lost 12th inning and 14th inning heartbreakers on the road, and simply could not score when we needed to. Holiday and Giambi were homerless and the A's as a group were dead last in home runs. The word "anemic" is often used to describe an offense in these scenarios, but maybe "retarded" is more apt. The A's seemed incapable of outscoring their opponents.

But the ship has been righted. Geren gave Travis Buck the start, and he made the skipper look foolish for denying him the last 4 games at-bats. But more importantly, Giambi homered. To right. The last 4 weeks have seen more than a few line-drive outs, as defenses put on the shift for the big left hander. Today the infield was irrelevant, as Jason rocked a long ball into the bleachers like he did 33 times in 2008. OK. He's not broken. Our $5.25 investment is not a lemon. The pressure is off. Exhale.

A secondary (yet vital) aspect of our game is also looking good, with Dallas Braden and Dana Eveland posting wins againist last year's World Series runners up. Bradens 2.53 ERA leads the A's (as do his 2 wins) and it's also good enough for 9th in the American League. He beat the Red Sox and the Rays, and he did not look outmatched. This is kind of start you need for the youngest pitching staff in baseball. While some of the A's rotation has taken its lumps, others have demonstrated impressive outings against real-deal teams.

Ziggy is tied for 2nd in the league in saves. He's not a fluke. He's a groundball machine with a gold glove defense behind him. Orlando Cabrera broke an 0 for 8 slump today going 2 for 4 with a double. Russ Springer is earning his 2 million with an impressive 1.08 ERA. Garciaparra is looking like the free agent pickup of the year, coming up clutch in the last 3 games. Signs of life are everywhere at the Coliseum this afternoon.

7-10 is not exactly lights-out, but this afternoon, I'll take it. We took the series against the reigning pennant winners, and we did it with offense. The pitching looked good too, but we scored runs. You can't post a winning season while scoring like we did in 2008. Offense was the objective, and offense brought us 2 straight wins. The A's ride a day off into an 8 game road stretch and hope the bats can stay hot against Texas and Seattle, whose equally struggling pitching staffs will seek to cool them.

LET'S GO OAK-LAND!!!

R.I.P. Nick Adenhart

2009-04-09T11:32:00.000-07:00

The kid in red looked sharp last night. Cool. Calm with runners on... wiping the sweat from his forehead with his sharp-cornered red hat. Six scoreless innings of 6 hit ball, a 22 year old rookie reducing Major League hitters to groundouts and wiffs. He strolled off the mound and into the dugout with the quiet air of a guy who'd almost earned it. His cockiness was well contained, as if he knew his best days were still ahead of him.

This morning I find it incredible to think that talent is gone; taken swiftly by the force of a drunk driver. Rookie pitcher Nick Adenhart was killed last night in Fullerton, a few short hours after his professional career saw its brightest moment. 20+ years of practice... a lifetime of commitment: little league, playing catch with his dad, high school 2-a-days in summer, 3 minor league seasons and a very real promise of greatness... all taken away.

Being ranked the #35 prospect in pro baseball is no small accomplishment. Choosing a minor league career over a full ride to the University of North Carolina, Nick had seen his destiny and chased it at full speed. He improved quickly, and after an elbow surgery at 18 years old, he started making some waves in the Angels organization. Nick dominated AAA in 2008, and got a couple of shaky starts in the big leagues. At 22, this was going to be his year. The Angels suffered some key injuries in the rotation, and Nick was given the chance to prove himself. He did that and more last night, going 6 scoreless innings for Anaheim and striking out 5 Oakland batters. He looked sharp. He looked every ounce a big league pitcher.

Last night his talent bugged me. In fact, the thought of him mowing down A's hitters for the next 5 years scared me. I never thought I'd sincerely mourn the loss of a rival, but a tragedy like this puts things into perspective. It's just baseball. A game. For Nick Adenhart, however, it was more. It was his life--in a way most of us will never know. To be so good at something, so much better than the millions and millions of others who try, that he reached the very top--is truly remarkable, and the kind of achievement that most can only imagine. Nick Adenhart got to feel that, if only for one night.

birthright or wrong?

2009-03-18T08:49:00.000-07:00

The weather was perfect for my very first spring training game. I bought my tickets 2 months in advance, took a week off of work, booked flights/hotel with plenty of time to spare. Everything was all set for a copacetic baseball vacation for for me and my girlfriend. A's vs Giants in Phoenix... pretty exciting stuff for a lifelong A's fan with roots in both cities.

As we settled in, wandered into the gift shop and over to the beer stand, my girlfriend and I drew some looks, and some funny comments. See, she's a Giants fan. SF born and bred, and she came well dressed for the event in her new Tim Linceum jersey. I, on the other hand was literally green and gold from head to toe (jersey, hat, undershirt, socks, shoes etc... flirting with overkill, even at a ballgame). "You two gonna make it through them game?" quipped a couple of walkers-by. It was cute, we played along.

We had great seats, 6th row behind home plate. We were early and made friends with some of the adjacent fans, including a pair of young ladies (maybe 22 or 23 years old) who were also from the Bay, specifically: Blackhawk, CA. Initially, they were very pleasant, knew their baseball and also found humor in our A's/Giants juxtaposition. They were sitting right behind us, so we overheard their conversation, which bounced around from A's clubhouse gossip to the new Lexus one had just gotten, to their first class flight into Phoenix. These girls were definitely from Blackhawk, and had little issue flaunting it. No harm done... I found them amusing and fun.

In the 2nd inning, the beer man approached and I hollered him over. I got myself an ice cold Coors light and my girlfriend asked him if he had any wine in his bucket. One of the girls behind us tapped her on the shoulder and in a cautiously condescending tone said "just like a Giants fan to ask for wine". She was kidding, but needless to say, it was not received well. My girlfriend was less than amused, and though I've razzed her using the same joke in the past, it seemed a bit out place coming from our new friend.

The can of worms here is big, and maybe it's easy to see where I'm going with this. The girl's comment was inappropriate on a few levels: First, she doesn't know us, or the fact that my girlfriend is 5th generation blue collar SF... a city employee and someone who takes great pride in her heritage. Second, the girl is from Blackhawk... one of the most exclusive and affluent communities in the Bay Area, an enclave which is known for fencing out the surrounding residents of Danville, a town not without its own affluence--certainly not without its wine drinkers. Third, and most significantly, her comment presumed that as an A's fan, she is part of the scrappy, fighting, beer drinking community that is inherently above the snobbery and wine drinking lifestyles of an aloof and baseball-illiterate Giants fan.

So, this incident got me thinking. As I dissected it further, I came to feel that the philosophical question is this: does any fan, regardless of background have a right to attach themselves to the character and identity of a team... even if the qualities embodied therein are contradictory to their own backgrounds? Furthermore, does the scrappy, blue collar appeal of the A's become diluted or less pure by folks of affluence adopting the stripes for fashion's sake?

I will not portend to answer these questions, as they are complex issues that don't have one right perspective. My most ethical answer is that a baseball team is everyone's: rich, poor, black, white, urban or suburban. Hands across America. As an Oakland native, my partisan response would cite the East Oakland location, the small-market payroll, the 2 dollar Wednesdays and the consistent marginalization of the club by pundits and Yankee fans alike. Is either answer inherently more right? Does an Oakland native have a more legit claim to the A's than someone from Portland or Sacramento or Blackhawk, and does their social class further qualify/disqualify this?

Again, I'm not going there. I am certainly no authority on any of the issues in play. I do, however, see value in springboarding off of this issue, at this time, when my team's ownership is pursuing a relocation for business purposes. Fremont fell through. Consequently, Lew Wolff and his grand designs for a stadioplex reatil-ominuim windfall are looking elsewhere. San Jose IS the most feasible location within the NorCal market where he can hope to retain existing fanbase and hopefully leverage a fresh, untapped revenue stream. The logic is not wasted on me. I understand the draw, and the hope that corporate ticket packages and higher median incomes can promise. San Jose is, after all, a shorter drive from Blackhawk.

BUT. Will the A's lose something by leaving Oakland? I'm not talking about season tickets, money, advertisers, business concerns. I guess I'm talking about purity. Intangible, unabashed emotion-based gut instinct. I'm talking about a team playing with the spirit of its city. Would the Steelers be the same if they moved to Cape Cod? How about the Mariners of Compton? These conjectures are fictional, and maybe a bit silly, but I think my questions have merit. They are questions every fanbase has pondered in the face of change, and they are now ours. As long as I have been alive the A's have been synonymous with Oakland, and I can't help but wonder about the cultural implications of a move.

Bottom line; it's Wolfe's prerogative, so perhaps the point is moot. It's his club, and his investment. His track record boasts a lifetime of successful real estate development projects/sports franchise ownership... and the A's are his latest undertaking. It's up to him how he wants to position his assets, and right now: he wants to see some return. Fine, that makes sense. But fallout will insue. Those fans who live in San Jose have reason to celebrate. Those who live in Oakland might feel cheated or burdened. I know I do.

As I am sure to draw backlash, please note: this is an editorial. This is not meant to override, outsmart or trump anyone else's stance. I do not speak for any contingent or demographic beyond myself. This is just my take. I understand that I've adopted reverse-elitist tones here, and maybe that makes me just as wrong as the girls who prompted this diatribe. Please also note: I am not saying that people with money are bad. No one is inherently immoral because of their social class; that would be a ridulous assertion. I work hard to make my life easier than it was growing up, and there is nothing wrong with success.

So who is right? Is anyone? Clearly I have my own leanings, and maybe they're misguided. But my context is mine alone, and I'm proud of it. I've been taking BART to A's games since 5 years old. My parents were broke, so I earned each nosebleed ticket by reading 8 books in the Oakland Public Library's summer reading program. I love Oakland. I love baseball, and I love the A's. I'm a season ticket holder. I chose the A's EVERY time I play a baseball video game. I own 12 different A's hats, in every color and I wear one of those hats to any stadium I visit, regardless of whether or not the A's are playing. Ultimately, my fanhood can not be taken away from me... and I understand that I can not out-muscle anyone else's. Not even the gracious ambassadors from Blackhawk.

Go A's.

fallen angels

2009-03-11T09:34:00.001-07:00

It's nice to know the A's aren't the only team with injury concerns. This week has been a rough one for the Anaheim Angels, with 2 of their highly talented starting pitchers complaining of elbow pain. Ervin Santana, who inked himself a hefty contract extension this offseason has reason to worry now that initial optimism has gone dark:

Says Will Carroll at Baseball Prospectus:

"Bad news on Ervin Santana. He has a "small" tear in his UCL. He’ll rest and undergo treatment before a decision is made on the next step. Surgeons disagree on how complete a tear must be before doing Tommy John surgery, in large part because every arm is different. More, the forces put on those arms are different. Santana’s going to be risky, even if he’s able to come back. Very few pitchers are effective in the short term, with many showing control issues." Santana is easily the best Angel pitcher, at 51-37.

As if that news was not bad enough, yesterday Angels brass told the LA times that Joe Saunders, their #2 is also experiencing elbow pain. "His ball was flat, his sinker up a bit," Manager Mike Scioscia said — he still needed only 30 pitches to complete three innings. He threw another 15 in the bullpen to bring his pitch count to 45.

Saunders did his best to deflect the direness of the situation: "The fastball command still isn't there, the arm speed still isn't there," Saunders said. "I've just got to keep long-tossing to get my arm strength where it should be." Sure, Joe. Maybe the economy could use a little "long toss".

Any baseball fan can tell you, elbow/tommy john surgeries are a crap shoot, especially when you're talking about pitchers. Pitchers rely on tendon strength for velocity and accuracy, and without a firm grasp on both, their value at the Major League level can plummet quickly. A sinker left up is lunch meat for a big league hitter. A 78 MPH fastball is just as easy to prey upon... just ask Barry Zito (yes, this line has been used before and yes, it will be used again).

The Angels now have some choices to make: start the season with banged up pitchers (and risk further injuries) or call up a few minor league arms to provide a stopgap. Their situation is made more precarious by the increasing viability of Oakland's young arms. Trevor K-Hill, Vin Mazzaro and Bret Anderson have all shown the cactus league some impressive outings, and they are not leaving Anaheim much room for error.

I'm reluctant to root for injury, mainly because it's bad juju... and because these athletes are people too. Well, all except Yankees. But seriously, baseball is the most superstitious sport in the US, and sending those vibes will inevitable lead to an imbalanced cosmos, potentially at the expense of one of our newly acquired hitters. So I just stay away. That said, I shed no tears for Ervin Santana, and in fact; I wish him a long, slow, thorough and meticulous healing period.

Get well Ervin, hopefully in September.

elbow grease

2009-03-06T11:42:00.000-08:00

The saga continues... Wu Tang, Wu Tang...

Injury concerns aside, Justin Duchscherer is a rock. Satisfactory (read: less than overpowering) speed, pinpoint control and good, solid judgment; a decent #1 for a rotation full of youngsters. Injuries, however, are par for the course in his career, and 2009 is no exception. As the A's rumble into week 2 of preseason, Duchscherer is complaining about nagging elbow pain when he throws, and there is a big fat question mark hovering above the head of our anointed ace.

Obviously, management (and fans) would like to know the extent of the injury, and the potential damage it could cause to our momentum-rich Spring. Surgery would mean certain death for Duchscherer's season, if only for the time he would miss. Playing hurt could cut short his career, period. For this reason' I'd like to examine the history and context of Justin Duchscherer's elbow injury, and perhaps offer an amateur blogger's diagnosis.

In his own words, Justin injured the right elbow in his youth, in a car accident. "Maybe chipped a bone". The elbow is not part of the string of injuries that have kept him benched the last few seasons (hip, bicep inflammation) but has definitely surfaced before. The dull pain and "tightness" he is experiencing are are typical for pitchers at this point in the preseason, but for a guy who has felt it the last 4 seasons, this is not a good sign. He's played through it in the past, but this time it seems to be more troubling.

"I was trying to throw through it, trying to pop something loose if there was something in there," Duchscherer said Wednesday. "I don't know what's wrong, I just know my elbow doesn't feel right. The timing stinks, but at least we know there's nothing structural wrong - my ulnar collateral ligament, all that, is all fine."

Pardon me for not feeling reassured. There was obviously enough concern on his end to get a second opinion from Angels team Dr. Lewis Yocum on the MRI he had done Tuesday. Initial physician advise is rest, rest and more rest. That does not bode well for those who would like to see the bugs worked out pre-opening day (those being: me, most A's fans, Billy Beane, Bob Geren, the rest of the A's roster...) But, what can you do?

My advise is to let him have his rest... and once he's rested up, ship him to the bull pen. Beane has spent the last few seasons building out the minor league roster in one main area: pitching. We have 21 year old arms for days, and should not overwork what has proven to be a very fragile pitcher in Justin Duchsherer. He was an all-star out of the bull pen in 2005, and could be quite valuable to Oakland in that role once again. It does seem counterproductive to crowd an already full bullpen with a guy who has proven he can pitch as a starter--especially when we have a shortage of starters. But, consider this: he provides NO value at all on the Injured Reserve list. And he's been on that list every year for the last 4 years.

If it's tendinitis... he can fight through it, pitch reasonably well and not risk grievous permanent damage. If it's a tear (and it's safe to assume it isn't, based on the MRI) he should have the surgery now and try to be back for the second half. If it's nerve damage, this season may be a wrap already--and the A's have wasted $4MM on him for 2009. So, again my assessment: give him his rest. Let him heal, and once he does, ship him to the bull pen and restrict his innings on the mound.

My thought is that he is dealing with scar tissue from an old injury. That could mean a couple things: best case, he plays through the pain and posts numbers similar to last year's first half. Worst case, it's permanent (or near-permanent) damage that will require surgery and limit his productivity to nothing in 2009. All the A's can do is give him sufficient time to heal, and reevaluate once the time comes.

Duchsherer throws 5 pitches: a cutter in the mid-80s (his best pitch), 4-seam fastball at (87-89 mph), 12-6 curve, 2-seam fastball, and a changeup. He owns a 31-24 major league record and has another year on his contract with Oakland.

art of waiting

2009-03-04T08:32:00.000-08:00

Negotiation is an art. Just ask Scott Boras, who as I type deliberately drags his heels into a late morning meeting with Dodgers GM Ned Coletti. Having straight up rejected LA's 2 year, $45MM offer to his client, Manny Ramirez, he seems to feel he can squeeze a couple more drops of blood from the stone.

Boras, like only the sharpest of negotiators can sense it. He understands that Manny is not just a frightening hitter... he is also in a position of historical importance to baseball. If they can come to terms with the Dodgers, Manny will hit homer #600 in an LA uniform. Colletti will see a return on his investment. Scott Boras knows his client's value, and will not accept anything less than the Dodgers extending themselves several million dollars farther than they want in order to get him.

It's no accident that Boras waited until the second week of spring training to conclude negotiations. As the other 31 clubs begin finalizing their rosters, the Dodgers are antsy to get started. They want their stallions in the stable. Desperation breeds doubt, and all of sudden there is urgency to get the deal done. I don't imagine Boras is going to lower the asking price at this point.

But this is an A's blog... so I digress. The art of negotiation can be practiced from many standpoints, and often it's the franchise which has to create value. Lucky for Oakland, we have Billy Beane. There aren't many GMs who can read the market the way he has, time and again. This year is no exception, signing guys far outside his budget at the onset. Giambi was earning almost $18MM last year with New York. He will be earning $5MM this year with the A's. Orlando Carera went from $10MM to $4MM. These are the offers that must be made when your team's payroll is in the bottom third of teams' payrolls.

What did Beane do to get players to accept such a huge pay cut? Is he just that dope? Well... Part of it is persuasion, part is the fact that the A's can contend. But a more significant factor is timing. Supply vs demand determines value. When Beane signed Giambi, there were only 3 teams in the market for a DH: Oakland, Tampa and Seattle. The free agent market included Giambi, Pat Burrell, Garret Anderson, Mike Sweeny, Bobby Abreu and Ken Griffey Jr. Too many bodies equalled smaller offers for everyone. Beane waited as the market saturated itself, and struck quickly enough to pick up the best hitter in the group at a huge discount. Burrell, the other top choice DH got a good deal from Tampa, who also acted quickly. The others have since accepted modest one year deals from Atlanta and Seattle... the result of poor market reads by their agents. Safe to assume Scott Boras was not representing any of those guys.

The same goes for Cabrera. Once the Giants overpaid Edger Rentaria and LA resigned Furcal and picked up Orlando Hudson, the available jobs for free agent shortstops equalled 1. That job used belong to Bobby Crosby, and will now pay $4MM... much less than it would have in January. Beane exploited shrinking market conditions to pick up the guy he wanted at a rate he could afford. That's the difference between him and Brian Sabean... instinct.

Like Scott Boras, Billy Beane played the waiting game better than his opponent. He went toe to toe in a staring contest and emerged unblinking. He understood his needs, but never allowed those needs to become visible. He understood the value of the free agents he coveted, but did not allow the perception of value to become real. In essence, he was able to make deals on his terms because he knew time was on his side. This is art. Art based on instinct and composure.

The tenets of moneyballing have been beaten to death by A's fans and advocates, but let's be realistic. Beane took over the A's in 2000. No Major League team has won more games since besides New York and Boston. New York has spent $1.7BB in that time frame. Boston spent $1.2BB. Oakland spent $460MM. This is not an accident. No GM has done what Billy Beane has done for their club. 2009 will go down as another year of deftly negotiated contracts and carefully allocated resources. Let's just hope all the front office moves can be justified on the field. Because if so, this could be a big year for Oakland.

musical chairs and the burden of youth

2009-02-27T09:45:00.000-08:00

Who will it be? The coveted fifth spot in Oakland's rotation remains unclaimed, and the competition is not letting up. For a team very much in contention, boasting an offense with newly acquired starpower, the chance to anchor a Major League starting rotation is one hell of a brass ring.

Duke, Sean Gallagher, Dana Eveland and Gio Gonzalez can all but assume they have locked down spots as starters. That fifth spot, however, remains a mystery to A's fans and management alike. The candidates: Dallas Braden Josh Outman, Trevor Cahill, and Edgar Gonzalez. The median age: 23. Combined games of Major League experience: about 70. This group is young, talented, and largely unproven at the pro level.

Let's take a look at the crop:

Braden is easily the most battle tested of the group. Posting a 5-4 record in 2008, he's appeared in 39 games for Oakland over the last 2 years. Braden has decent power, with a fastball in the mid 90's, a hard slider and a unique knuckler/screwball pitch he calls "the scrooge". Bob Geren seems to like him, which will help his cause. At 26 years, he is also the oldest member of the Atheltics hopeful.

Outman could be the dark horse. Once regarded as a top 15 prospect in the Phillies organization, the 24year old southpaw came over in the trade for Joe Blanton and played in 6 games at the end of last year's inconsequential season. He gave up a disappointing 34 hits in 25 innings and definitely took his lumps in his first look at big league hitting. Outman boasts a hard fastball with movement and relies on a deceptive (sometimes inaccurate) changeup to deliver strikeouts. He posted 19 in those 6 games.

20 year old Trevor Cahill is probably the most highly anticipated of the group... and the farthest from game day ready. Despite representing the USA in Beijing Olympics, the A's have limited his time to A and AA appearances. He's dominated at every level so far, but is still being cultivated for a big league roster spot.

Last year Edgar Gonzales finished a lackluster 1-3 with a 6.0ERA for the Arizona Diamondbacks (similar to his 06 and 07 numbers). He impressed A's brass this week with a 100 pitch session, facing a number of A's batters and showing good change in speed, location and instinct. But, the difference between bullpen sessions and game time performance is huge. His big league numbers leave much to be desired. At 25 years old, he has time to work out the bugs, even if it has to be at AAA for another year.

So who will it be? Whereas we don't know that yet, we do know the 4 designated starters (aside from Duke) are also young and yet to be challenged by a 162 game season. Moves have been made to address this.

This offseason Billy Beane signed veteran relievers Michael Weurtz and Russ Springer, and is still eyeing former Minnesota Twin Dennys Reyes. These arms in combination with proven entities Santiago Casilla, Joey Devine, Brad Zeigler and Jerry Blevins look to shore up what is arguably the top stable of relief pitchers in the Majors. With a deep and talented bullpen backing the starting 5 up (and shortening their innings on the mound) the support is there, and the potential for damage is substantially mitigated. It seems Beane was very deliberate in building a safety net for Oakland's young starters--with good reason.

So as week 1 of preseason approaches its conclusion, the A's know what they need to work on. The promise of youth stares down the AL West, and Beane has his work cut out for him. It would be nice to see some of these young guys step it up and once again validate his instincts.

methodized madness

2009-02-25T10:35:00.000-08:00

Today is the first day of Spring Training and hopes are high in Phoenix. Mark my words: this is our year. I felt the same tremors in 2006, when Beane made moves to add Milton Bradley and Mark Kotsay to the lineup (we didn't win a pennant, but I'll take an ALCS appearance any time). The embers of hope began flickering in Novemeber when we landed Matt Holliday in the blockbuster trade with Colorado. They began to grow with the news of Giambi and Russ Springer. Rickey Henderson's HOF induction got A's fans even hotter, and current rumors of Garciappra and O-Cab joining the squad do little to temper the glow. Honestly, that's the best word I can summon for the 2009 preseason: glow.

The buzz is glowing. The smiles on the players faces are glowing. The media coverage is glowing and Oakland is no longer the bastard child of the AL West. Our new face is much more becoming: contenders.

Favorites? Perhaps. Detractors would grant that honor to the Angels on principle, but to me that's shortsighted. No one can argue that Oakland's offseason was more productive and impressive than any other team in the division. We cleaned up. Also beyond debate is the fact that our offense has been substantially upgraded. The best part? We aren't done. Orlando Cabrera's options are looking slimmer by the day now that The Dodgers landed Orlando Hudson and Edgar Rentaria is a Giant. He still wants the $5MM but I think Oakland's $3MM offer is becoming much more attractive, considering there are no others.

Buck. Ellis. Giambi. Holliday. Cust. Chavez. Cabrera. Garciaparra. Suzuki. That's a lineup to respect. Especially considering the lackluster rotations we will face from Seattle and Texas. Yes--the average age of our starting rotation is 23. Yes--that is our biggest question mark, and yes--that's an important component of team; perhaps the most important. But these young guys can throw, and success is chemical. We lost 25% of our games by 1 run last year. That will not happen in 2009.

If there is one thing i have learned from watching the A's this decade it is to trust Billy Beane. The man has a plan, whether it makes sense to me or not. When we traded Dan Haren for 6 guys, there was a goal. Two of those players landed us Matt Holiday. When we traded Rich Harden, we landed us a much healthier/dependable Sean Gallagher, and guess what, Harden is hurt and won't pitch this spring training. When we traded Nick Swisher, we unloaded one of our biggest contracts and landed Gio Gonzales and Ryan Sweeney who are both legit contenders for starting jobs. I dont even need to mention how much stronger these moves made our farm system, because our Sacramanto RiverCats team are defeding AAA champions. These moves over the last 3 years have had one goal in mind: 2009.

This is our year.

wild wild west, part 3

2009-02-04T08:38:00.000-08:00

When George W Bush purchased the Texas Rangers in 1989, he probably thought they'd be able to improve; maybe win a division, maybe even a playoff series. After all, they were (and still are) the only major league team to have never done so. Little did he know the Rangers' troubles would continue, and deepen into 2009.

Having made a couple of small, inconsequential moves, the Rangers return with standouts Ian Kinsler and Josh Hamilton... and little else. They traded away Mark Tex to the division rival Angels, avoided arb with junior powerhouses Vicente Padilla and Jarrod Saltalamachia. Milton Bradley is a well paid Chicago Cub, and understudy Elvis Andrus will be learning the fine art of shortstop from 11 time gold glover Omar Vizquell.

Texas looks to post a 3rd place finish, and even that will hard fought. Seattle's moves have been based on a more established core of individual contributors, and Oakland is the one to watch this offseason. As I indicated last month, Anaheim is slippin' and despite signing Bobby Abreu to a 1 year deal, they are looking much less ferocious than last years AL West winning squad.

There is not much to be excited about in Arlington. Average pitching, average offense and below average historical significance threaten to relegate the Rangers to yet another year under the shadow of mediocrity.

Let's go Oakland.

wild wild west, part 2

2009-01-30T09:21:00.000-08:00

part 2:

Mike Sweeney didn't do much for Oakland last year. He hit 2 homers in 126 at bats after coming over from Kansas City, where he played 13 seasons and earned 5 all star appearances. And whereas those 2 shots were very rewarding, they weren't enough to propel the A's out of 3rd place. The Seattle Mariners seem to think he's capable of more, and signed him to a minor league deal this week.

Something is going on in Seattle, whose front office has been sniffing around the likes of Bobby Abreu and Ken Griffey Jr. The Mariners have been frenetic in both the free agent and trade markets, and seem desperate to redeem themselves from a humiliating 101 loss season in 2008. The losses themselves were embarrassing, but the shame gets really thick in the context of their 100MM payroll. Seattle was the richest team to ever lose 100 games. Not exactly top honors.

This offseason has been a crash course in franchise re-org. In an unusually bold move, the Mariners made Oakland's long time bench coach Don Wakamatsu their new manager. Loved by A's fans, he has a daunting task ahead of him; a veritable balancing act of inflated contracts, aging position players and very, very high expectations. Wakamatsu's departure is eerily similar to former A's 1st base coach Ron Washington's transition to manager of the Texas Rangers, another AL West division rival. It would seem that our closest opponents think pretty highly of Oakland's management personnel.

This week the Mariners traded Aaron Heilman away to the Cubs for Garret Olson and Cedeno. The acquired David Aardsma from the Red Sox for a minor league pitcher, and managed to avoid arbitration with Felix Hernandez. They also resigned Erik Bedard, who looked like an oft-injured bust after getting big money as a free agent out of Baltimore... but inspired enough confidence in management to justify an contract extension. Most of these moves have focused on the pitching staff,

These changes do little to strike fear into the hearts of A's fans. Seattle's mismanaged assets are about as terrifying as Gumbi. Pitching was their most glaring inadequacy and they have done what they could to remedy that. The new and improved green and gold lineup proves to be a formidable challenge for the Mariner's rotation... Garret Olsen or no. Ichiro is still around, slapping base hits to the oposite feild. Raul Ibanez is now a Philly. Even Wakamatsu's departure is to be expected in such a competitive game. I see Seattle finishing 3rd in the AL West... with some trouble.

moshi moshi!!

next installment, Texas Rangers.

wild wild west, part 1

2009-01-28T09:02:00.000-08:00

This is the first installment of my 3 part analysis of the AL West... more specifically, the 2008-2009 offseason moves (good and bad) made by the Anaheim Angels, Seattle Mariners and Texas Rangers. Needless to say, they will all be highly partisan, glaringly biased... and mainly based on how these team's moves pertain to the A's.

Part 1:

Angels are slippin. Free Agent ace Jon Garland is on his way to the D-Backs and that halo rotation is looking just a hair less dominant. Single-season saves leader K-Rod is paid in Queens, and will no longer prey on the A's in the ninth. Bad Vlad posted modest numbers in 2008, Tori Hunter is looking every bit his 34 years, and Garret Anderson may be unemployed by the start of spring training. The sting still lingers from Mark Texieira's snub of their 160MM, 8 year offer. And, to top it all off... the city of Anaheim brought legal action against the club for rights to their name. They gave it up eventually, but they had a point. The Angels are, after all, located in Orange County. All of a sudden, the big red 100 game win machine is sputtering.

The division rivals to the south have held a tradition of fielding strong teams for most of this decade. Much of their success has been predicated on a strong core of hitters, and supported by a diverse, powerful pitching staff. But as 2009 takes shape, the house Scioscia built is showing some cracks in the foundation. This is not, however, reason to relax.

Ervin Santana, Joe Saunders, and Jon Lackey are all returning to the rotation, and they won 45 games for the Angels in 2008. That's a pretty solid core, but they will miss Garland. They also signed closer Brian Fuentes (and his career 3.41 ERA) to a 2 year, $18MM deal in hopes he will be able to ice hitters the same way K-Rod did last season. Good luck with that fellas.

GM Tony Reagins inexplicably moved on free agent Juan Rivera while ignoring Manny Rodriguez (who is still available). This one puzzles me a bit, as they were willing to commit 8 years and countless millions to Mark Texieira, but not 3 or 4 years to Manny, with a career .314 average and a reputation as one of the most feared hitters in the game. He would also offer legit star-power (aka butts in seats, aka enhanced revenues). Oh well. Maybe they see Erick Aybar hitting 37 homers this year at the SS position.

The arbitration class was also quite active, although easily resolved, and focused mainly on position players. Chone Figgins, Robb Quinlan, Jack Taschner, Derren Oliver, Brad Thompson and Mike Napoli all came to terms with the Angels and avoided arbitration hearings; collectively a good omen for Anaheim. Whether or not retention of those players will be enough to win the Division remains to be seen.

Trade-wise, nothing to report.

All in all, The Angels are looking far less ferocious than the 2008 squad who earned the AL's best record (and ultimately choked to Boston). The market is what it is, and they did not emerge as winners this offseason. Which is a bit disappointing to Angel fans, I can imagine, considering their $115MM payroll and gigantic (and painfully, horribly garish) new Orange County stadium.

So. Where does that leave Oakland? Poised. At the very least, in contention. The A's young and relatively unproven starting rotation is seeking leadership from 2 time all star Justin Durscherer. If he can stay healthy, he could prove a viable steady and Ace... but that composure will have to be contagious to the rest of the young arms. Pitching will be our greatest concession to the Angels, despite their losses.

Our offense will now feature 2 former batting champs and a former MVP (yeah, he's old, but he still hit 34 homers last year). Chavez is healthy. Ellis is healthy. Travis Buck is healthy and ready to join the ranks of Oakland's proven hitters. This is good news for the A's, who boasted a League worst offense last season. This is bad news for the Angels, who are used to abusing our near-anemic lineup. Long story short, we are going to hit the ball much better against Anaheim this year. I do not see 100 wins as being a realistic accomplishment for them. Watch out California Angels... I mean LA Angels... I mean Anaheim Angels... I mean LA Angels of Anaheim. Pretty sure that's it.

Anaheim's own disneyland...

next installment: Seattle Mariners.

unspecific

2009-01-23T10:07:00.000-08:00

brave new world and the rain pushes sheets on diagonal sidewinder avenue slopes like california or sacramento or bush and pine and all cable car street sign street sweepers go diagonal in sweater weather systems that refuse to call me back and offer me money cuz frosty glass ceiling skies stop short of subdued weekend with blissful promise sleepy eyes meet and smile when they are left alone in safety dim but not dark square shapes with soft corners confirm a careful touch beside elusive oval puddle jumps falling arches falling swift and unkempt smokey afghan carpet nag champa wafts where foggy afternoons replenish themselves on water and wine and television and ordering in and eating off paper plates while sports highlights can justify my love in cell phone text because quick fingers trace loyal patterns on keys sounding songlike and distant but sweet like sugar water on rock candy volcanic obsidian that shimmers black liquorish waves crashing consistent and unsettled loud like sleeping on the diagonal inner city sidewalk no parking here inhospitable unbroken and unsustainable right angles green grass and flashes take me back to the soft corners and sleepy eyes and careful touches and homeward bus lines stop and go and seal me in vaccumed and unharmed

giant shadow

2009-01-12T10:35:00.000-08:00

Somewhere between the 30 minute line for garlic fries and my $45 bleacher seat, i realized i was in a very different kind of ballpark. as weird as it sounds... these people were wearing their goofy orange and black Halloween colors with pride. they remained seated when their team made a play--more interested in their conversations than the game, nursing chilled Chardonnay in premium plastic cups. every one of these people could have been a season ticket holder. for me, games at AT&T are more a lesson in social class than compelling baseball.

I don't know why the relationship is so adversarial, but it just is. they have more money, a FAR nicer stadium (that they don't share with Al Davis) and a fanbase that doesn't get tired of seeing them lose. they also boast a fraudulent all-time-home-run legacy left behind by Barry Bonds, and questioned by just about everyone who is not a giants fan. in most respects, I'm almost a Giants hater.... call me envious.

But rather than rant about the haves and have nots of bay area baseball, I'd like to explore the budding rivalry between A's and Giants. Catalyzed by a World Series sweep in 1989, and immortalized by the earthquake, it's a cross town beef like no other. The blue collar A's represent a plucky, fighting, rebellious spirit to the rest of the nation, whereas the Giants have often struggled to define their identity. Despite winning the NL pennant in 2002, the Barry Bonds Bunch has embodied large market mediocrity throughout the last decade, with glimmers of excellence in standouts like Tim Lincecum and of course, Mister Asterisk himself.

so as 2009 settles in, and the new rosters (and identities) take shape, i once again see the bay area teams in competition--i can't help it. i compare their signings to ours, and our failures to theirs. pointless? probably.

Ray Ratto (SF Chronicle) feels like Billy Beane has been out GM'ed by Brian Sabean this offseason. I think that's absurd. Whereas both teams brought in big name free agents (for short term deals) and attempted to address their personnel issues, the A's have done it without cashing out. Both teams still have positions they'd like to upgrade, but Oakland's only glaring insufficiency is at shortstop... and they've identified a viable (read: affordable) target in Orlando Cabrera. The Giants do not have game day starters at either infield corner... and that means holes in the lineup as well. the free agent market has been pretty kind to the Giants so far, but their work is far from done.

The comparison is also unfair because of an inequity in available resources. working class A's fans will commonly use the limited payroll as a fallback in defending their team (i already have in this post) although we've seen successes beyond our budgets. The Giants aren't exactly spending money like the Red Sox, but their new stadium and deeper pockets do make contract negotiations a bit less challenging... just ask Barry Zito.

Plus their division is soft. The NL West title is a very achievable one, with the last 10 being split fairly evenly among its 5 teams (with the exception of Colorado, which has never won). The division is ripe for takeover every season, and every season there seems to be a snail's race to the finish. As far as image goes, the Dodgers have a rich and eventful history, dating back to their days in Brooklyn, and it helps that they usually contend. The Padres and Diamondbacks have each seen above average results, including Arizona's 2001 World Series win over the Yankees (thanks fellas!)... but are also not very unique squads. The lackluster Rockies wear the worst uniforms in professional sports... so there's that. The Giants are somewhere in the middle; not terrible, not good... and very much without a clear "character" to reference.

With regards to Oakland, the NL West denied us World Series wins in 1988 and 1990, and gave us one in 1989.... against the Giants. If that 3 year stretch wasn't enough to spark a rivalry, interleague made it official in 1997. Now we play the Gmen every year. Since then, the A's hold the advantage over SF 38-30... punctuated by a 12 strikeout domination by Tim Lincecum last season (the most recent meeting between the 2 teams). It was pretty much his coming-out party, and it eclipsed an outstanding 1 run performance by our own all-star Justin Duscherer.

this year proves to be more equitable in terms of how the Giants stack up against the A's. they have tried to address their issues, and so have we. they've lost some players, just like us. i have ongoing bet with a buddy that the A's finish with a better record. this year i feel it's less of a lock, but i still took the bet.

5:04pm, 10-17-08, where were you?

2008-12-30T11:49:00.000-08:00

Bay Area natives will always remember exactly where they were when it happened. I was at home, eating a Popsicle, waiting to watch game 3 of the 1989 World Series. in the middle of warmups and pregame commentary, as the hosting giants prepared to respond to the beatings in games 1 and 2 by the A's... everything stopped as the earth began shaking.

i can't call it surreal, because i remember it so specifically--but it was definitely erie, and massively, overwhelmingly powerful. scores of people were killed, freeways collapsed and the Bay Area saw its most devastating disaster since 1906. the implications of October 17th went far beyond baseball, but for many, that moment in 1989 was immortalized by an unlikely backdrop: a World Series between San Francisco and Oakland (the first inter-metro world championship since the the NY subway series of 1956)... and it happened as the entire world was already watching.

I spent my summer that year collecting baseball cards, playing pickup baseball games at the nearby blacktopped diamond, and reading books at the oakland public library--earning an upper reserved (R.I.P.) ticket and a pizza hut personal pan for every 8 books completed (those who know are feelin' me right now). 4th grade had just started and Halloween was around the corner. my costume was reigning MVP Jose Canseco; my hero to the point of jersey, poster and (less than mint condition) autographed rookie card.

Life was good. The A's were good. They had been for a while. By all accounts they were the team to be respected/feared in 1988. But they suffered a left hook to the ego, losing the world series in 5 games to LA (despite having won 104 in the regular season). this is year they would get it done. they had retained almost the entire roster and sought redemption in the eyes of the world this time around. My team was the best team in baseball in 1989, hands down. There was an expectation amongst the people of oakland that we were witnessing a reprise of the early 70's glory in green and gold. we got A's history in class.... our teachers told us about heroes like Vida Blue and Catfish and how we were once the best team in the world (thank you Oakland Unified School District)... everyone was a fan, and any kid on the playground could name at least 3 players from our allstar lineup.

In my 9 year old mind, the previous year's World Series loss to the Dodgers was a bump in the road on the A's ongoing dominance. They had weapons at every position and they were unstoppable. just like the 49ers of that time, i expected the A's to win. the fact that they were facing the giants that year was a fun coincidence, but nothing i ever considered to be in the way of the A's winning it all.

The Giants, on the other hand were a longtime NL laughingstock, and though i'm sure Giants fans remember it differently, they were just happy to have a place at the table. they didn't stand a chance. but, they had won 92 games and boasted a spunky offense with impact players like Will Clark and Kevin Mitchell (aka "the pacific sock exchange"... not quite "bash brothers", but whatever). They had made their mark, and needless to say, the Battle of the Bay was being hyped to the (yet undiscovered) point of critical-hyphy. it was a moment of definition and redefinition for Bay Area sports.

At about 5:00, fans began taking their seats in sold out candlestick park. Al Michaels and Jim Palmer were calling the game. i had come home in plenty of time to get a cherry Popsicle and grab a seat on the couch next to my brother. out of nowhere the shaking started. At first i thought my little sister was shaking the TV, but then i heard and felt the rumbling and saw the terrified look in my mother's face, and i knew it was an earthquake. we ran outside and gathered our family on the sidewalk. once we realized we were all safe, it was still happening. it kept going... we stayed huddled, crouched to the ground as neighbors flooded out of their houses down the entire block. phone lines shook violently above us, cars stopped in the street and the low noise just kept rumbling. all told, Loma Prieta was recorded a 6.9 and it lasted fifteen seconds.

as the afternoon became evening, we stayed together in the living room, TV on... prepared to run out the door at the first sign of aftershocks. news outlets began building the story of what happened, and the national spotlight on the Bay Area suddenly got wider and brighter--zooming out to examine the depth of what had taken place. a baseball story became had become pure, survivalist human interest, and Americans who weren't watching the series now had payed close attention. most Americans remember the image of the bay bridge collapse, or the stories of motorists plummeting to their deaths trying to jump the distance (yes, like knight rider).

damaged was assessed. running water and electricity were restored, and for the next 5 days rescue crews went to work clearing people trapped in their cars under the collapsed 880 freeway. i remember seeing interviews of folks in Colorado Springs and Peoria, Illinois lamenting the bad luck we Californians just struck, and offering their prayerful thoughts to help with our cleanup. (many thanks, i'm sure New Orleans also appreciates those).

life must go on, and like every thing else, the World Series resumed on October 27th, after a record 10 day delay. game 3 revisited the matchup of Dave Stewart and Scott Garellts... and Stewart who pitched a 5 hit shutout in game 1... crushed him again, winning his 2nd World Series game of 1989 and earning the Series MVP. the Giants licked their wounds and retreated into offeseason anonymity; the A's relished the longest, most unusual and improbable World Series sweep of all time. it will forever be treasured in the hearts of A's fans, and remembered by the rest of the world for its incredible circumstance. as Tony La Russa said "I think we may have just won the most historic World Series of all time, with having to deal with the delay and everything. I don't think anybody's had to go through anything like what we did to win and compete for a world championship!"

getting back to the idea of redefinition of bay area sports, 1989 also marked the birth of the A's/Giants rivalry. although the clubs faced each other in 1913 (as the Brooklyn Giants and the Philadelphia Athletics - A's killed- 4-1) interleague play was not introduced until 1997, and the neighboring teams rarely faced each other. as we well know, A's have gone on to own that matchup... which has taken on the name of the immortal world series that launched it into existence. the rivalry has grown, and nowadays i still find it special to attend those games... it's also nice that we usually stomp.

those who were here remember exactly where they were when it went down. i love asking people where they were... over the years i've heard some pretty good stories. people's perceptions are very different. some lost their homes. one person told me she was in the car driving and didn't even realize an earthquake had occurred. wherever you were, the significance and the magnitude (no pun intended) of the situation are unmistakable... and i'm sure you have a story. I guess Al Michaels called game 3 so well that he won an Emmy for his performance, so he can sum it up... "well I dunno if we're on the air or not and I'm not sure that we hear you right at the moment, but we are. Well folks, that's the greatest open in the history of television. Bar none!"

-j

some videos:

canseco shaken up:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ru47yp6ju08&feature=related

candlestick:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3_-dFvemYUs&feature=related

bay bridge collapse:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AFwJR04qBys&feature=related

sappy ass photo essay/collage with background italian vocalist:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H0o_9sILvLY&feature=related

Giambino, Round 2

2008-12-22T09:29:00.000-08:00

There are a few major league players I stand up and boo at A's games. It's not pretty, but I save a special volume setting for the likes of A-Rod, ManRam, Coco Crisp, Barry Bonds (God rest his soul) Mo Rivera and of course, Jason Giambi. I get loud and I get personal, and it's usually enough to illicit game-long jawing from Yankee fans in earshot. Giambi is a special case, however, and I make sure to come correct.

Last season at McAfee I made a few new friends in pinstripes as I repeatedly yelled "I WAS WRONG TO DO THAT STUFF!" when Giambi took the plate; mimicking his near-confession to steroid allegations in front of a judgemental sporting press earlier that year. Fans in the know recall him swimming in tearful remorse as his conscience publicly sputtered to a gaffe. And although he never said the word, everyone knew what he meant: he was juicing, and he was sorry.

The humiliation of it all was a special reward for A's fans with a chip on their shoulder. Most of us still hold a grudge against the guy who won the MVP for Oakland in 2000 and signed with the Yankees 1 year later. In typical fashion, Giambi was swept away by New York's deep pockets and navy-blue mystique. He sealed a $100MM deal by cutting his long hair, shaving his goatee, and trading in his west coast bad-boy look for a more presentable Manhattan manner. He was one of the first and certainly most notable free agent (read: sell-out) departures, and A's fans still hate him for it.

So how do I feel about the fact that he will likely sign a 2 year deal with Oakland? I'm juiced (pun intended). Giambi is a career .289 hitter and once did great things for the A's. There are, however, pros and cons. Like any 38 year old (who is recently off the juice) his performance has declined. But in all fairness, that's exactly why the A's can afford him. Giambi will hit his 400th home run next season, and how fitting would it be for him to do it in Green and Gold?

The 2-time Silver Slugger would bring power to a lineup that desperately needs it. He could play first base, keeping Jack Cust at DH (and relieved of defensive responsibilities in the outfield) and will likely knock in 20+ homers. Like it or not, he is a big name lightning rod that will at least earn some attention and hopefully contribute some regular offense. For a team that ranked second to last in RBIs in 2008, his contribution would be valuable.

The drawbacks are less tangible: he is unliked... he is old... he is expensive (as he will want a 2 year commitment)... and most of all, his game may be on the end of its rope. All of these are potential red flags. Old guy sluggers are always a risky move, but one the A's have recently seemed willing to take. Betting on Frank Thomas paid off in 2006, but not so much last year. Piazza was a total flop. What's to say that Giambi will continue to perform at a time when most power hitters either die quietly or defy nature and keep slugging? Nothing. There are no guarantees with this kind of contract, and lack of security is this contract's biggest downside.

But market conditions are what they are. The A's don't have the resources to sign Mark Teixiera... It's just the reality of the situation. The most feasible offensive acquisition right now is Jason Giambi. Pros and cons considered, it's a good move for the A's. I think he has at least 2 good years left in him, and I'd like to see him spend those in Oakland. After all, I'm more of an A's lover than a Giambi hater. Plus, he made an easy business decision to join the Yankees. Money talks, and he is certainly not the only guy to outgrow his contract with the A's.

So for what it's worth, Jason: I forgive you... provided you: a) sign with us. b) sign with us at a reasonable sum, in a reasonable amount of time. c) hit at least .275 for the season. d) smash at least one walkoff against Jonathan Papelbon to deep right field and/or issue defamatory statements towards former Yankee teammates or management. That's it. Otherwise, welcome home champ.

-J

Circa 2001:

Searching for Bobby Crosby

2008-12-19T08:39:00.000-08:00

The A's placed one time rookie of the year shortstop Bobby Crosby on waivers this morning. For all intents and purposes, Billy Beane ended the 4 year professional relationship, casting him into the offseason market--hoping some other team will eat the $5.7 MM owed him for 2009. Crosby was not traded, he was simply released. After failing to upgrade the infeild with free agent Shortstop Rafael Furcal, the A's were forced to take a hard look at their current personnel. Crosby did not make the cut.

The son of Pro utility infielder Ed Crosby, Bobby exceeded all expectations when he exploded his rookie year (2004) hitting 22 homers, and knocking in 64 runs. He was picked, almost unanimously for the honor of outstanding rookie in the AL, joining the ranks of legendary shortstops Cal Ripken, Ozzie Guillen and Derek Jeter. He appeared to be the next big superstar for the A's... but that never really materialized.

Last year Crosby saw a full season's worth of playing time, and didn't do much with it. Fan expectations were that he would finally have his chance to live up to his potential. All he needed was a full season, free of injuries, to really shine. But instead he batted .237 and struck out a disappointing 96 times in 2008. If anyone was withholding judgement on Crosby's true colors, it appears we've seen them.

What happened? How did such a promising young star all of a sudden find himself out of a job? Crosby was lights-out in college, the minors, and his first year in the majors. It was easy to be optimistic about his development. But ongoing injuries, limited playing time and unknown intangibles all took a toll on Crosby's production since that breakout season, and he has become a career .235 hitter. Not exactly the stuff of miracles.

Shortstop is the most athletic of all positions in baseball. It requires a strong arm, quick feet and sharp instincts. There is a certain mystique to those who play it well; a talented shortstop is a natural... a baller. Crosby appeared to show all the signs of a gifted, agile infielder, plus he could hit. But nothing is forever. It's foolish to assume that talent and competitive fire will simply persist. Strength fades. Injuries pile up. Skills get less sharp, and before long the downward momentum catches up. For Crosby, it happened in the middle of what should be his prime.

It's unlikely any Major League Franchises will take an interest in Bobby. Evaluating talent is an inexact science, and the rule of thumb is to underestimate potential in order to mitigate risk. The chance that he will turn it around is a risky one. Moreover, most teams have a shortstop, and the attractive free agents have been snatched up. The market does not look promising for the 6th man to win rookie of the year for the A's.

Comebacks can happen, but like so many promising baseball players, Crosby will probably fade into memory. A's fans will remember him mostly for what we thought he would become. Sadly, he will be known more for for his potential (and failure to meet it) than for his successes. It is what it is. For what it's worth, I will miss him.

-J

Bobby Crosby, Athletics Shortstop: 2004-2008

who's the black sheep?

2008-12-16T09:44:00.000-08:00

It ain't over til it's over, but now it's over... and I'm over it. Furcal signed a 3 year deal with the Atlanta Braves this morning, sending clear signals that he did not find viability in the A's prospects for 2009 and beyond. Despite the higher offer, for more years, the injury prone shortstop would rather play 2nd base for an aging, middle of the road NL team than play his native position for Oakland.

Stigmas are hard to shake, but hard to earn as well... and I find myself wondering how we got stuck with such a bad rap. The 2006 A's made the AL championship series (albeit against ALL analyst predictions) only to be swept by a big market, big swinging Detroit Tigers team. It was crushing to Oakland fans, but business as usual for the rest of the baseball world, who all but expected the A's to fall into a familiar stasis of mediocrity... and yeah, we did.

But are we really that bad? Have the 19 years since our last World Series really been so flat that we should be systematically overlooked? I don't think so. We are not Kansas City. We are not the Pittsburgh Pirates. We are a small money ballclub who has redefined how small market ballclubs are run. We made the playoffs for 6 straight seasons (2000-2006) and we did this by working smarter and more unconventionally than anyone else. We've sent young pitchers to the All Star game almost every year since 2000, all of which were brought up through our own farm system. Our fans are plucky and quirky and historically our team has have competed against the best in the AL. In short: our successes have been modest, but unique... and we have certainly earned ourselves some credibility as a franchise.

Why then, would the prospect of playing for Oakland be so unappealing for a guy like Furcal? I think it's a multidimensional stigma that starts with money. We have the 7th smallest payroll in the Majors and a 30 year old stadium that we share with arguably the worst team in the NFL.

Only 3 MLB clubs still share a park with the NFL, and we are stuck with some very ugly neighbors. Al Davis runs a bottom of the barrel team known for its lack of discipline and rowdy fanbase. He mismanages contracts, alienates his players and refuses to relinquish an ounce of control, even as he approaches 90 years old. The Raiders are universally seen as losers, and the A's are devalued by association. Stigma.

As a card-carrying Raider Hater, I see the team's departure for LA more than I see any kinship with the A's. I see the sabotage Al Davis wrought upon the A's hopes for a new park in Oakland. I see the 3 story monstrosity he installed in the Coliseum to sell more Raider tickets (at our expense). The fact that the two teams share a stadium has always been more of a liability and burden than anything else to me. Call me a negative pragmatist.

The money stigma goes deeper though. The A's are also known for losing players once their notoriety outgrows our payroll. The modern era has seen the likes of Miguel Tejada, Jason Giambi, Tim Hudson, Mark Mulder, Johnny Damon, Jermaine Dye and Barry Zito leave for (far) greener pastures/contracts. The A's been repeatedly incapable of retaining our big name talent, despite the fact that we built it. It stings, but we're used to it. It's not personal, its business. Big fish eats small fish, and that's just the way it goes.

So, Furcal sees a small fish offering him a heap of fish food to swim in our little tank for 4 years, and it doesn't exactly scream promise. Despite a revamped NL East, he feels the Braves can offer him a greater chance at success, or at least a smaller chance of stigma. Fine. He's not the only one. For every arrogant, entitled redsox or yankee fan that moved west, there is a loyal and faithful member of the athletics nation that scours the blogs and trade rumors. We hope for the best because that's what true fans do. Haters buy A-rod jerseys (or sign with Atlanta).

I remember saying I'm over it... allow me to clarify: I'm not over the emotional buildup that big name free agents can dangle in front of us (that's the good stuff). I'm over succumbing to the notion that losing Furcal dooms our season. He's one guy. I'm over feeling shunned or rejected by him (he's just telling us what everyone else thinks). But mostly I'm over shying away from our stigma. We are who we are: small market craftsmen who do what we can against the bigs. Moneyballers. Bring on the haters... their dismissal will make our inconsequential victories feel that much more fulfilling.

Now to the task at hand: let's get ourselves a shortstop. Go Billy. Go A's.

-j

make me an offer...

2008-12-09T08:53:00.000-08:00

Furcal is done. Or is he? The all star wanted a four year deal, and so Billy Beane offered him one, albeit a shade below the rate he'd been getting on his 3 year deal with the Dodgers (4 years, $35MM-$40MM). Furcal's agent, Paul Kinzer balked at the offer... clearly overlooking the fact that his client is fresh off a back surgery that limited him to 36 games in 2008. Beane attached a sunset clause, and eventually the sun set on the offer. Negotiations halted. Offer withdrawn.

Beane's offer borders on the bold. It's not quite a low-ball sum, but it's pretty much a low ball-sum. The length of the deal is overshadowed by the price tag. Furcal didn't just want a 4 year deal... he wanted a 4 year deal at the rate he was getting in his 3 year arrangement. This begs the question: if LA didn't think he was worth it 3 years ago, why should Oakland think he is now, at 3 years older plus one major back surgery?

Short answer: he isn't. And as Sarah Green (Boston Metro) pointed out: "it's a thin market for Furcal". The 3 teams looking for a big name free agent Shortstop were SF, St Louis and Oakland. The Giants and the Cards found their guys in the forms of Edgar Rentaria and Khalil Greene. Oakland, being the only team left, took the sensible (if not smug) route in offering Furcal a 4 year deal at a rate that didn't offend their delicate payroll politics. It didn't work.

So here we are; the thirsty athletics nation, grinding our teeth at the thought of another year with Bobby Crosby at short, batting .245 and playing well below the expectations of his 2004 Rookie of the year season. As an athletics faithful, my hopes were set on the big free agent signing, but I'm not ready to give up yet on Crosby. Hitting is chemical, and it's hard to expect one guy to hit well when the entire lineup is underperforming.

There is also the possibility that Furcal comes back around; realizing there are no suitors willing to go the distance his agent seems to think they should go. Only time and market conditions can tell. The offseason is not done yet, and this week's winter meetings in Vegas could be the most eventful of the year. Stay tuned for next steps.

-j

A's Days with Kanye

2008-12-05T09:10:00.000-08:00

the fiscal year winds down, and the slumping economy sputters to a glide. work goes on, because i know the 2009 budgets and MLB payrolls take shape soon. baseball analysts will predict anything in december. perfect timing to launch an amateur blog :)

what's on my mind? my job. the A's. the economy. the new kanye west record. these topics don't exactly correlate, but do comprise my current mental climate. this is my first effort, so i will ramble rather than dissect. rocket surgery.

Billy Beane is making moves for Rafael Furcal. the 31 year old all star wants 4 years at around $40MM despite the 51 games he missed last season with a sore back. he, his wife and his agent Paul Kinzer toured the coliseum yesterday... and sniffed around the walnut creek real estate. Kinzer is unlikely to accept anything under 4 years... typically safe play for a shortstop with uncertain longevity... and i don't blame him. the fact is, he is the best shortstop free agent available... and he will bring media attention to Oakland.

the A's aren't typically in the market for an all star. we make them, we don't buy them. when your club boasts the 7th smallest payroll in the majors, you are forced to do things differently than the Boston red sox. so we moneyball our seasons and fight tooth and nail for news coverage. ESPN almost devoted an entire media cycle to the trade for Matt Holiday... and i'll be honest... it left a delicious, expensive taste in my mouth that i want more of. 4 years of furcal tastes like baseball legitimacy (for at least the preseason). it's enough to make randy johnson consider winning his 300th game in Oakland. it's enough to overshadow the giants signing edgar rentaria, and enough to energize and empower the athletics nation and restore us to AL West prominence.

Tampa Bay changed things with their 6 game upset of the evil red machine last October (GOD i hate redsox)... small market teams will NOT be overlooked this year. we won't be signing CC Sabathia, but we can make some waves of our own... on offense. the new stadium will be a factor, but that can't be our starting point. young pitching and a few select free agent pickups will be enough to create momentum in the preseason.

the A's haven't been so good to me lately, and the last 2 years have not followed our ALCS appearance with much substance. i still read the news though. that's what a fan does: make the most of small news and treat any development as reason to hope.

so i was thumbing through this morning's sporting green, rocking the new kanye album while on the way work. the theme seemed strangely appropriate to the bay area. 808s and heartbreak... sounds like a ballad for sports in oakland. the bash brothers 2k9 are as elusive as the digital neo-soul on these 11 tracks. even the deflated balloon on the cover summons the futility of bay area teams in the post-season. if the warriors 5-13 start doesn't bring tears to my eyes, maybe kanye on the vocodor can serenade my sorrow. and he aint no damn singer.

i highly doubt the inspiration for the album was actually a tough breakup. i kept asking myself what he has to be so melancholy about? call me cynical, but i think Mr. West manufactured that motif. must say: it's a good one. the album actually sticks to the theme pretty well, and there is a definite cohesive character to the tracks. he kept the drumlines simple in this one and it conjures images of a more muted, ethereal artist; lots of cool tones... he raps/sings/rap-sings somber refrains over minor key chords and melodies. repeat: he aint a damn singer.

the voicebox is able to both keep him on key while at the same time scrambling the pitch (sort of like A's bullpen following our iffy starting pitcher). it's hard to tell where he ends and the box begins... i honestly feel like he's trying to get all he can out of this voice-box pop rap fad... because i know people will start to find it gimmicky. probably soon. all said, the album reads like a chilly oakland sunset... colder than i expected, but warm enough to sit through; maybe even enjoy.

maybe i'm resistant because of the A's. maybe my hardened fanhood won't let me trust my team and keeps me from letting the kanye's bitch-musings touch my soul. times are tough. people are uncertain of the future. unemployment is on the rise nationwide... and we are even seeing it in the tech sector. adobe laid off 600 yesterday. my modest collection of yahoo shares are worth a third of their strike price (and falling). i had lunch the other day with a candidate out of AOL that i placed at at a small startup (at a 30K paycut) and he was just happy to have a job. maybe i'm in the wrong business as a contingency recruiter working at 100% commission. kanye, please cry with me.

2009 is probably not the year to put my heart behind a small market team. luckily for me, i have no choice who i follow. it's green and gold for life. 100% baseball. preseason to post season from an athletics perspective.

welcome to my blog. go A's.

-jose