Sheets to the wins

Pitching, pitching, pitching.

Athletics great Rollie Fingers has been quoted as saying "Baseball is 90% pitching". That makes sense, coming form a pitcher, but may seem a bit lopsided, as hitting, base running and defense need to figure in somewhere. Such an analysis would favor a club like the A's, who have made their focus to be building a stable of young hurlers (arguably at the cost of any viable offense).

The emphasis is even more understandable, considering the setting. Oakland's massive foul territory, cavernous outfields, and dense marine layer air all favor the pitcher, resulting in a .20 drop in batting averages. This setting, ideal for a fledgling pitching staff can dampen offensive production, and also limits Oakland's ability to attract free agent hitters.

So what does a pitching-heavy team, in a pitcher's park do to improve their roster? Sign a big name free agent pitcher. Obviously.

In a move that is sure to please A's fans, Billy Beane singed 4 time All Star Ben Sheets to a 1 year contract, at $10MM plus incentives. Not bad for a guy who didn't throw a single pitch in 2009. Coming off rotator cuff surgery and a year rehabbing, the 31 year old Sheets will either return to form, or fall short of the staff ace role he played in Milwaukee over the last 5 years. Oakland fans have their fingers crossed. Sheets' career 3.72 ERA goes a long way to mitigate risk of injury, or least make the risk worthwhile.

Whereas Sheets does add a veteran presence to a young staff, and a brand name to the roster, his effectiveness has yet to be determined. In classic Oakland fashion, Beane reserves the ability to trade him at the deadline should the As' fall from contention. This tactic has netted the bulk of of young talent in the A's system over the last 3 years, and helped replenish one of the strongest minor league systems in baseball.

This first half-commitment to the last 3 seasons has been particularly difficult for fans, but those in the know understand it. Each season requires an effort to field a competitive team, but a competitive team means 25 players of major league caliber. Those valuable pieces don't grow on trees, and often have to be self-incubated. The A's made their push in 2006, and continue to pay the price, having to re-tool, and re-aim for 2011.

So far the process is going well, at the cost of finishing sub .500 3 years in a row. Whether or not the 1 year addition of Ben Sheets accelerates the goal remains to be seen.

The Shift is On

The new year is upon us and the stove is getting hot. I haven't written an update in a while, so here is my first effort of 2010. Pardon the rust.

Defense seems to be the emphasis is Oakland's personnel strategies for 2010. In a surprising move, Beane signed veteran center fielder Coco Crisp, almost guaranteeing his agile outfeild glove and pedestrian batting average a spot in the starting lineup. Crisp is coming off shoulder surgery, and figures to need a proving a proving ground for his career going forward.

Beane also made an offer to high priced Adrian Beltre, one of the elite third baseman in the League, who also batted circa .260 in 2009. Unsurprisingly, Oakland's free agent sorrows continued as their front office watched him sail on by, signing with Boston yesterday for one year, at $10MM. Oakland's offer was not disclosed.

Oakland fans are quite used to seeing big names chose bigger destinations. Nothing new there.

But, a fan may ask them self why the great interest in expensive free agents who do little to fortify Oakland's lingering offense? Isn't that counterproductive? A more informed fan might see rising value in building a sound defense to strengthen the A's greatest asset--their young pitching staff.

It would seem offense is not the highest priority for the A's in 2010.

The plan was always 2011, according to Beane. The recent acquisition of top prospect Micheal Taylor adds depth to a promising young offense in Oakland's minor league system that includes the #1 hitting prospect in minor league baseball, Chris Carter. Crisps' one year deal seems to validate that premise, as his true value is not his bat, but his ability to keep outfield shots from becoming hits. With plus defense behind a stable of young fireballers, Beane seems to think another year of development for the rotation is necessary before making the real push.

He may be right.

The all-rookie platoon of Gio Gonzalez, Vin Mazzaro and recently repaired Josh Outman will be back and competing for the 5th spot in the rotation. All present tremendous upside and risk, as all have had shaky and dominant outings in 2009. This year will hope to separate the wheat from the chaff.

Trevor Cahill showed flashes of brilliance, finishing at 10-13, and still features a ton of promise for a 21 year old right hander. He will likely pitch in the 4th spot, and if he can limit the home runs, he may evolve into the elite young talent he was projected to be.

Dallas Braden enjoyed a career season, coming out of nowhere and achieving 8 wins and a 3.89 ERA while serving as the A's defacto staff ace. The jury is out on his ability to repeat that performance, which would land him a #3 spot in just about any MLB organization. Even still, he is not the question mark some of the other youngsters seem to be.

The true prize stallion is 22 year old Brett Anderson, included in rookie of the year conversation with an 11-11 record and 150 big league stikeouts. That is not achieved by accident. With some run support, his 4.06 ERA may yield a few more wins this year. It will certainly be enough to earn him the #2 spot, behind Justin Duscherer.

It takes a confluence of many moving parts to build a championship roster. Especially on a budget. This takes time and would seem to be aiming for the next 2 to 3 year window. The free agent signings of 2009 either represent bad judgement, or a quick fix to get the team through a year of experimental pitching. No one knows but the man himself. The experiment continues into 2010 with one goal: a dominant, young, inexpensive pitching staff to ride into the next decade.

The Death of Moneyball?

Much has changed in the six years since Michael Lewis’ groundbreaking book, Moneyball, brought the Oakland A’s and Billy Beane’s unorthodox management strategies into the public sphere.

Tampa Bay is the reigning AL Champion, the Yankees spent a mindboggling $400 plus million in the offseason (on 3 free agents) and Oakland sits dead last in the uncelebrated AL West.

Could we all see this coming?

Some would argue that 2009 is an anomaly, a speedbump in Oakland’s next rise to prominence.

Some say it’s just bad timing; the market readjusted during a rebuilding season. Others, however, are more certain of the causes.

Moneyball has failed.

Billy Beane is a fraud.

Haters are unanimous in their outcry.

Just ask a Giants fan.

As they chase the NL wild card from their China Basin digs, they look across the Bay and see an aging, cavernous ballpark, a small time payroll, and a revolving door of Oakland’s most celebrated players.

They see bush league.

KNBR newsies coined a cute little phrase: “The AAA’s”… as in: all prospects, no major league talent.

Needless to say, Giants fans with short memories love this.

Unlike the A’s, the men in orange and black have not enjoyed a winning season in years, so they’re riding this wave for all it’s worth. Part of the ride means boasting a nouveau-riche dismissal of moneyball, as a concept, and Beane, as its executor.

Whatever Moneyball means, it doesn’t mean much in Oakland right now.

But maybe there is some value in what happened earlier this decade.

Maybe there are other franchises who have taken direction from what Billy Beane did a few years ago. Maybe a good example would be the Red Sox. Maybe the Yankees, the Dodgers, and even the Giants have followed suit.

So maybe we should qualify some terms. What IS “Moneyball”?

In its purest sense, Moneyball means finding value in undervalued assets.

As in Bobby Abreu or Jason Giambi. They’re old. Their best years are behind them, and that means they could come at a dramatic discount, like say: $5 million, as opposed to $17 million, which is what happened to Abreu.

Deals can be found when one is willing to reconsider “value”.

In other words: Buy Low.·

Conversely, one can exploit the market by trading away over-valued assets, like, say, two months of Matt Holiday, for five years of three high level prospects.

Because the 2009 A’s were not in a playoff push, the value of two months of Holiday is low. But to the Cardinals, who are trying to make the post season, those 2 months are an extremely valuable commodity.

In other words: Sell high.

The other essential component of Moneyball is finding undiscovered value by using new, innovative methodologies.

In Lewis’ book, the A’s realized that batting average and RBIs were misleading stats that teams payed too much for. So instead, they targeted palyers with high on base percentage because those highly disciplined hitters flew under the radar of other teams, and could thus be acquired by Oakland’s limited budget.

Both BA and OBP are offensive metrics, but only one was dramtically undervalued.

Finally, the Moneyball philosphy placed unpercedented importance on the draft, and building teams inetrnally.

The A’s could never sign a free agent like Mark Texiera. Small market teams do not patriciptae in the bid-high world of free agency, so they have to build teams through their minor league systems and the draft.

They used homegrown methods to develop homegrown prospects and thus built teams from the inside.

To the average fan, those all seem like pretty sound concepts.

But haters remind us that the A’s are 49 - 62.

Obvisouly Moneyball has failed, right?

Wrong.

The success of the Moneyball philosophy is not limited to green and gold. In fact, big market teams may be the best exapmples of Moneyball at work, and the greatest testament to Moneyball is the adoption of its practices by teams who didn’t have to use them.

As ESPN’s Buster Olney points out:

“Big-market teams, such as the Red Sox and Yankees, smartly began to drink from the same draft-and-develop trough that the Athletics, and others had drawn for years.”

Granted, the A’s haven’t exactly put up lights-out numbers these past few years.

There are many explanations for this, but perhaps the most convincing is what Olney suggests: that the secret’s out.

Once Lewis’ book was released in 2003, and the dirt-broke A’s posted three consecutive 95 plus win seasons, teams started to take notice.
All of a sudden, clubs began to reconsider how they evaluated talent. According to ESPN’s Howard Bryant, “Beane became the lead evangelist of a new baseball orthodoxy that emphasizes greater statistical analysis in the scouting and development of players”.
Baseball was getting smarter.
A new school of baseball thinking was being quietly ushered in.

The Boston Red Sox were early adopters.

In 2003, they offered Beane the largest contract in history to lead their club. He declined, and decided to stay in Oakland. So, instead, they decided to implement the strategies he made famous.

Boston CEO Larry Lucchino hired fellow SaberMetrics aficionado, Theo Epstein, to replenish their nascent farm system and minor league affiliates. They nurtured high OBP players like Kevin Youklis and Dustin Pedroia into some of the most fearsome hitters in the game today, and built stables of young pitching around prospects like Josh Beckett and Jonathan Papelbon. They also used their deep pockets to acquire big time free agents like Manny Ramirez, and, viola—no more curse.

As Red Sox Lucchino admitted:

“Billy Beane is a sharp mind. We tried to hire him, but what we've done since Theo took over is to take some of the quantitative analysis approaches and overlay them with the resource advantages of our market."

In essence, what Boston did was marry Moneyball with money.

The result: 2 World Series titles in the last 5 years.

Not to be outdone, the Yankees began efforts to draft smarter.

In GM Brian Cashman’s own words:

“Statistical analysis comes into play in defining the reality of the performance. Trends that show risk, injury, regression -- maybe you can catch that earlier because it's definable.”

The key similarity with Boston (and advantage over Oakland) is that Yankees don’t have to substitute one value for another. They can buy any combination of OBP and home runs. The idea that Brian Cashman’s checkbook is consulting Billy Beane’s notebook can be a scary thought for the rest of baseball.

More examples?

How about them Dodgers?

In 2004, LA hired former A’s assistant GM Paul DePodesta to bring some of that analytical Oakland A’s magic to the NL.

He took them to the playoffs in 2004 and went on to champion the tenets of Moneyball in San Diego, where he took the Padres to the NL West Divisional series in 2006 and 2007.

So, haters, please take note; Moneyball is NOT dead.

It is alive and well.

It has evolved into industry standard knowledge, and has improved the efficiency of any team willing to give it a try.

And where does this leave the A’s?

The reality is, that Oakland still sits in the bottom ten of all Major League payrolls.
Resources are limited. And now that Beane’s innovations have been exploited by everyone else, they face a new burden of having to re-innovate further advances.

At this point, rebuilding via trades has seemed to be the most productive route.

Clichés aside, 2009 is a rebuilding season. Oakland has five talented 22 year-old starting pitchers locked in for the next four seasons.

Despite this year’s numbers, Beane has to like his chances going forward.

For the remaining haters, consider this: no team aside from New York and Boston has won more games since 2000 than the Oakland A’s.

What has your GM done for baseball lately?

Casualty Report

Is it just me, or does it feel like A's fans have found cover behind an abandoned bunker at the All-Star break? Someone pass the first aid kit. The firing has stopped for a week, and we could really use this lull to lick our wounds and suppress the bleeding. Medic! Request paper bag with eyeholes, STAT!

"There are a lot of guys who need a break on this team" said Mark Ellis, who by the way just came off the DL 2 weeks ago. 37-49 at the mid-season break is the worst we've seen since 1999. It's been frustrating to say the least.

Casualty report:

Plenty happening on the front lines. Most of it falls into the "negative" category.

Today Sean Gallagher was sent to San Diego as "the player to be named later", thereby completing the Scott Hariston trade. Gallagher struggled mightily in the Big Leagues, giving up 12 earned runs in his last 12 innings. Although he's still only 23, and hence offers potential upside, his 7.14 ERA and 2 atrocious starts will have most A's fans happy to see him go. The reader can definitely put me in that camp.

Hariston is hitting .261, which, sadly puts him at the upper end of offensive production for the A's. His bat was sought to help a slumping lineup find some stride. His 11 homers put him in front of all but Giambi and Cust, and he is leaving little behind in SD. I like this trade, as he's also under control through 2010, which fills one hole beyond this season (with a guy we didn't grow organically... shocking).

With the body count totals rising, the A's sent a couple of minor league pitchers to Tampa Bay for journeyman 2nd baseman Adam Kennedy. Substantially less expensive than Giambi, Kennedy has proven to be one of Oakland's more productive hitters, and went from a bench role in Tampa to an everyday starter batting .291 and leading off for the A's. Sad but true, we've been utterly incapable of growing our own hitters. Instead, we've been forced to deal prospects or pick up elderly free agents at a price we can afford. Every now and then, we land a guy like Kennedy, having a career season at age 33.

Organically grown backup 3rd baseman Jack Hannahan was finally shown the door, being dealt to the Mariners for AA pitcher Justin Souza. So much for the homegrown product. Souza is a serviceable releif guy at best, but represents the top end of value for Hannahan, who hit a yawn-insipring .193 in 52 games for the A's. In many ways, Hannahan embodied the underachievement of the A's fledgling offense: a jallopy with a new paintjob: tons of potential, consistently meager numbers. He is the guy we paid too little for, yet somehow expected something from. So long Jack.

Josh Outman, beginning his professional career by going 4-0 was quickly becoming the dark horse rookie phenom until he suffered an elbow injury that led to season ending Tommy John surgery. Dang. He will hopefully be ready to throw next spring. Honestly, after a first half like A's fans have just gone through, Outman's injury felt more like "the routine setback of the week" than a devastating blow to the core of our young rotation. Bad news has a way of softening more bad news.

And it's usually a sign of even more bad news to come. Fellow rookie starter Brett Anderson was pulled after going 2.2 innings against Tampa due to tightness in his back. This is discouraging after watching the young man 3 hit the Boston Red Sox at home, for his first career shutout and complete game. But again, as an A's fan this year, one must re-adjust their threshold for disappointment. There is no verdict yet on his status, and A's fans can only keep their figners crossed.

On the bright side, we've seen signs of strength and poise from a young and unproven collection of starting pitchers. Well, what's left at least. That was supposed to be the A's big question mark this season: the pitching. Instead, we've used 2009 as a filtering mechanism to weed out the unproductive arms, and have come away with a nucleus of young, talented pitchers who project very well into 2010.

Granted, the filtering has come at a cost to our record, and being in the bottom 5 of all teams is never a desirable position. And as we all know, great pitching does no good when your offense produces 1 run a game. Ultimately, a fan needs to be able to find value in some part of this otherwise terrible season.

Dallas Braden seems undeterred by the noise. His hardheadedness has won him a team best 7-7 record, but that's more the result of poor run support than inconsistency. In fact, Braden has been very impressive, not allowing more than 2 runs in his last 10 starts. He missed his last start due to family illness, and returned to form Saturday, holding the Rays to 2 runs and locking in his 5th win in 7 starts. Braden was not the guy I envisioned earning the Ace spot, but he has, and with little support. Credit the underdog.

Vin Mazzaro, who opened his career with 15 scoreless innings has come back down to Earth, losing his last 5 starts, and sitting precariously at 2-5. There is potential all over this young talent, however, and he has certainly proven he can play at the Major League level.

The A's sent one guy to St Louis; newly anointed closer, 24 year old Andrew Bailey. This kid pretty much came out of nowhere, and went from a AA set up role to icy-veined 10 Save fireballer, with a cut fastball in the mid 90s that has helped him lead all MLB relief pitchers in strikeouts. He won't edge out Mariano Rivera for the closer's role in the All Star Game, but the mention of his name in the same sentence would seem to be sufficient for A's fans this year. Hey, it's something.

Player performances are one thing, but perhaps the true dysfunction lies with leadership. Manager Bob Geren's career record (and personality) floats lifelessly around .460 (187-221, to be exact). For some unknown reason, his modest successes have been enough to earn him a satisfactory approval rating with Billy Beane and ownership. This is a real headscratcher, and leads fans to beleive that lack of action and lack of passion are good enough for A's baseball. Yes, he's had guys traded away. Yes, he's had some rough breaks. But the numbers don't lie, and Geren has not done much to promote a culture of success with Oakland. Does it go deeper?

Personnel aside, this team does not feel like it has a rudder. Chemistry, fan attendance, managerial choices and comparative statistics all seem to come up short, all season. As we take a step back and evaluate 2009 at its mid point, one hopes some changes are on the horizon. Status quo so far has been tantamount to surrender.

The troops are weary, ground has been lost, and we're way, way past diplomacy.

building with steam with building blocks

There comes a point in the season when a fan refocuses his perspective. At 9 games back in early June, the A's have a long steep hill to climb to catch Texas, and now there may be more compelling storylines than our record.

22-30 is not good. But despite being bottom 5 in MLB, it's not atrocious either. There are still 110 games to play. The season is still early. But as reassuring as that is, looking beyond this season has been a more rewarding practice lately.

The A's started 4 rookies against the White Sox this week. The newly formed rotation of: Dallas Braden, Trevor Cahill, Vin Mazzaro, Josh Outman and Bret Anderson is by far the youngest rotation in Major League Baseball, and they're coming off a very strong week, having given up just 5 runs in the last 4 games.

Vin Mazzaro threw 7 shutout innings of 4-hit ball, in his MLB debut Tuesday. Both he and fellow rookie Brett Anderson blanked a potentially dangerous White Sox offense and earned themselves a big league win. John Outman improved to 3-0 with a 3.06 ERA on the season. Not bad for a 23 year old rookie. Although our bullpen erased a quality start by Cahill, he went 6 and gave up 3 runs.

As good as this week was, last weekend was ugly in equal measure. Outman's 9 K's were not enough to beat first place Texas, and they took 3 of 4 pretty easily. The Oakland offense just couldn't find it's step, and the bullpen is even more janky. So in tough times, the dedicated fan finds reason for hope in other areas. Oakland's silver lining may be our rotation.

The beauty of dealing in young, undiscovered pitching prodigies is that they're inexpensive, and under team control for several years. If these youngsters continue to picth as well as they did last week, the A's would be looking at the youngest, most talented and least expensive rotation in baseball. This last week projects very well on 2010 and beyond.

This is Moneyball at it's best. Beane built out this staff of youngsters by trading away any player with name recognition for handfulls of young prospects. Now we have 22 year old arms for days, and we've filtered through to chaff to find the 5 strongest. If the A's can establish a true nucleus of young fireballers; 5 guys with sub-3.00 ERA's, our chances look very good in fielding a competitive squad for the next few seasons. But that's a big IF. Yes, it takes some time for a rookie to adjust, and yes, it seems liek our guys have found a rhythm. But nothing is established yet.

Nothing hurts an A's fan more than playing to our payroll. Just because we are the 5th brokest team in baseball, it doesn't mean we're condemned to playing like the 5th worst. A's fans have been spoiled to an extent by enjoying superior management that translates to a disproportionately competitive team; at least over the last decade. 2007 and 2008 were especially tough, having made the ALCS in 2006, and seeing every big name player on that roster be dealt away. Rebuilding took its tool. And, though it may still be too early to see the fruits of those moves, glimmers of brilliance are visible.

Tonight the A's head back to Oakland to face a similarly underachieving team in the Baltimore Orioles. They hope to build on a 3 game win steak against a 24-30 club with the 3rd worst ERA in the AL. If we cant take this series, I'm confident we have no shot left at the West in 2009.

signs of life?

Speculation abounds as to what the A's will do come trade deadline time. Yes, it's still early. The division is far from won, and all 4 teams have beat each other up pretty good so far. One thing is for sure, Beane will not hesitate to deal the big guns if we are not in contention. Right now, the gap is small enough to assume we can be.

Season summary thus far:

Our short term rental in Matt Holiday is finally flashing signs of ROI. He hit a 3 run shot yesterday to tie Jack Cust for most homers hit at 4. Still technically slumping, at .230, Holliday seems to be finding some rhythm, and it couldn't happen sooner. Giambi has yet to find his stride, posting a dismal ground ball ratio and hitting .225. Nomar is predictably plagued by injuries as is fellow infielder (and sugery recoveree) Eric Chavez, and neither have contributed much. Orlando Cabrera has played nothing short of gold glove defense at shortstop, but is hitting .220 with 0 homers.

The young rotation is holding up about as well as we could have hoped. Not stellar, but certainly not bad. The team ERA is 3rd in all of baseball at 3.77 . The young starters are 8th in hits allowed. Pair that with one of the worst offenses in baseball and you get, well: a 10-16 record. Pleasant surprises include Josh Outman and Trevor Cahill's latest performances, posting 6 strikeout and 5 strikeout gems, respectively.

The bullpen is pretty shaken up. With would-be closer Devine out for the season, the responsibility has fallen onto the skinny shoulders of submariner Brad Ziegler. Heavy is the crown, as Ziggy succumbed to a flu that kept him off the field for th last week, only to return Thursday and give up 3 runs in the 9th against Texas. Santiago Casilla sprained his right knee and left his set-up duties to one-year-deal vets Russ Springer and Mike Weurtz. Both have been decent, but not lights out. The true diamond in the rough seems to be young Andrew Bailey, at 3-0 with 24 K's through 19 innings pitched. If he keeps it up, he could find himself pitching more than just late inning relief.

The A's are only 4 games back in the West, and Seattle has lost 4 straight, earnign them a #2 spot, half a game behind Texas at 15-13. It's safe to say this division is soft, and ripe for a take over. What remains to be seen is if the A's are men enough to take it.

gone away on Holliday

While (sort of) enjoying a sick day this week, I happened to catch a day in the life of Matt Holiday behind-the-scenes on Comcast Bay Area. All told, it was B- entertainment value, C+ education value and surprisingly, quite telling as to the psychological limbo the one time batting champ now finds himself in while playing for Oakland.

Holliday looked uneasy when asked to discuss his new situation. His anxiety was thinly veiled behind a facade of optimsm as he conducted a sports radio interview by cell phone at his Malibu home (one can hardly expect he'd move his family to Oakland). So shaken up was the slugger that he actually thought he was fooling the listener by claiming he was happy with the move. He was glad to be playing for an entirely new team... for one year.

It must be tough, to be traded without warning in a contract year... to go from one of the best hitters parks in the majors to the #1 worst. The world must look a little different in the AL, wearing white shoes and being the highest paid player on one of the smallest payrolls in the game. It must feel like the rug has been pulled under you when you've just gambled by turning down a 4 year, $82MM extension for promise of even bigger dollars, and now those dollars are less certain.

It doesn't take a genius to offer an amateur blogger's psych profile: he feels deflated and cheated. He feels like his destiny has been taken out of his hands. He feels powerless. Naturally, his psyche projects onto his performance, and his hitting has been just that: powerless. Batting a pedestrian .240, with 12 stikeouts, Matt Holliday in green and gold is a far cry from the stud power hitter from Colorado. I guess feeling powerless can be tough.

Well you know what? Boo fuckin' Hoo. It's May 1st and Holiday has 1 home run to show for his $13 million dollar salary. That is both highly unexpected and totally unacceptable. All shake-ups aside, this is pro baseball, and he is a professional. The uniform should be irrelevant when it comes to production, especially in a contract year. If he still has his eyes on that big 7 year deal, Holliday’s next team will not accept excuses for an unprecedented drop in numbers. He needs to quit sulking and pick it up. Now.

The Mark Texieras and A-rods of the game can thank consistency for their record payouts. Well, consistency and Scott Boras. Without solid, regular numbers, player profiles can go from legendary to above-average in a heartbeat. Above-average players get 3 year deals. Legends get 8 figures. Holliday's contract extension offer from Colorado was fair and then some. He elected to let his bat do the talking and homer his way to legend status and legend dollars.... which was great until he was traded away to Oakland. Surprise!

Maybe Colorado felt snubbed. Maybe they knew they couldn't afford him as a free agent. Maybe they saw a chance to rebuild their roster in one feel swoop. Whatever the reason, the Rockies were somehow convinced to deal the face of their franchise to the A's. Holliday's opinion was not solicited.

The A's made an equally bold gamble in trading away 3 of our most promising young ballers in exchange for the slugger. Carlos Gonzales, Greg Smith and 2005 rookie of the year Huston Street made up what looked like a substantial personnel upgrade for Colorado. That trade seems to have worked out in Oakland's favor, as none of the youngsters has yet earned a starting spot.

So here he is. Point of no return. Holliday didn't ask for a trade, but he got one. He didn't ask for a monkeywrench in the gears of his well oiled, high altitude offensive machine... but nonetheless, here he is playing west coast mechanic with a bat. Attitude affects confidence, and confidence is everything in this game where performance pays. It's a compeptive game and a cut throat business, and there are no contracts awarded on goodwill (except for maybe Mike Sweeney). If Matt Holliday feels he's worth the biggest free agent contract of 2009, he's going to need to need to hit a few more homers than 1.

But hey... the season is still young, and the value of the trade for both sides has yet to be determined long term. Players go through slumps and hot spells alike. The future is anyone's guess, but one thing is clear: Matt Holliday looks unsettled, and he has a very limited amount of time to get comfy.