Friday, February 27, 2009

musical chairs and the burden of youth

Who will it be? The coveted fifth spot in Oakland's rotation remains unclaimed, and the competition is not letting up. For a team very much in contention, boasting an offense with newly acquired starpower, the chance to anchor a Major League starting rotation is one hell of a brass ring.

Duke, Sean Gallagher, Dana Eveland and Gio Gonzalez can all but assume they have locked down spots as starters. That fifth spot, however, remains a mystery to A's fans and management alike. The candidates: Dallas Braden Josh Outman, Trevor Cahill, and Edgar Gonzalez. The median age: 23. Combined games of Major League experience: about 70. This group is young, talented, and largely unproven at the pro level.

Let's take a look at the crop:

Braden is easily the most battle tested of the group. Posting a 5-4 record in 2008, he's appeared in 39 games for Oakland over the last 2 years. Braden has decent power, with a fastball in the mid 90's, a hard slider and a unique knuckler/screwball pitch he calls "the scrooge". Bob Geren seems to like him, which will help his cause. At 26 years, he is also the oldest member of the Atheltics hopeful.

Outman could be the dark horse. Once regarded as a top 15 prospect in the Phillies organization, the 24year old southpaw came over in the trade for Joe Blanton and played in 6 games at the end of last year's inconsequential season. He gave up a disappointing 34 hits in 25 innings and definitely took his lumps in his first look at big league hitting. Outman boasts a hard fastball with movement and relies on a deceptive (sometimes inaccurate) changeup to deliver strikeouts. He posted 19 in those 6 games.

20 year old Trevor Cahill is probably the most highly anticipated of the group... and the farthest from game day ready. Despite representing the USA in Beijing Olympics, the A's have limited his time to A and AA appearances. He's dominated at every level so far, but is still being cultivated for a big league roster spot.

Last year Edgar Gonzales finished a lackluster 1-3 with a 6.0ERA for the Arizona Diamondbacks (similar to his 06 and 07 numbers). He impressed A's brass this week with a 100 pitch session, facing a number of A's batters and showing good change in speed, location and instinct. But, the difference between bullpen sessions and game time performance is huge. His big league numbers leave much to be desired. At 25 years old, he has time to work out the bugs, even if it has to be at AAA for another year.

So who will it be? Whereas we don't know that yet, we do know the 4 designated starters (aside from Duke) are also young and yet to be challenged by a 162 game season. Moves have been made to address this.

This offseason Billy Beane signed veteran relievers Michael Weurtz and Russ Springer, and is still eyeing former Minnesota Twin Dennys Reyes. These arms in combination with proven entities Santiago Casilla, Joey Devine, Brad Zeigler and Jerry Blevins look to shore up what is arguably the top stable of relief pitchers in the Majors. With a deep and talented bullpen backing the starting 5 up (and shortening their innings on the mound) the support is there, and the potential for damage is substantially mitigated. It seems Beane was very deliberate in building a safety net for Oakland's young starters--with good reason.

So as week 1 of preseason approaches its conclusion, the A's know what they need to work on. The promise of youth stares down the AL West, and Beane has his work cut out for him. It would be nice to see some of these young guys step it up and once again validate his instincts.

Wednesday, February 25, 2009

methodized madness

Today is the first day of Spring Training and hopes are high in Phoenix. Mark my words: this is our year. I felt the same tremors in 2006, when Beane made moves to add Milton Bradley and Mark Kotsay to the lineup (we didn't win a pennant, but I'll take an ALCS appearance any time). The embers of hope began flickering in Novemeber when we landed Matt Holliday in the blockbuster trade with Colorado. They began to grow with the news of Giambi and Russ Springer. Rickey Henderson's HOF induction got A's fans even hotter, and current rumors of Garciappra and O-Cab joining the squad do little to temper the glow. Honestly, that's the best word I can summon for the 2009 preseason: glow.

The buzz is glowing. The smiles on the players faces are glowing. The media coverage is glowing and Oakland is no longer the bastard child of the AL West. Our new face is much more becoming: contenders.

Favorites? Perhaps. Detractors would grant that honor to the Angels on principle, but to me that's shortsighted. No one can argue that Oakland's offseason was more productive and impressive than any other team in the division. We cleaned up. Also beyond debate is the fact that our offense has been substantially upgraded. The best part? We aren't done. Orlando Cabrera's options are looking slimmer by the day now that The Dodgers landed Orlando Hudson and Edgar Rentaria is a Giant. He still wants the $5MM but I think Oakland's $3MM offer is becoming much more attractive, considering there are no others.

Buck. Ellis. Giambi. Holliday. Cust. Chavez. Cabrera. Garciaparra. Suzuki. That's a lineup to respect. Especially considering the lackluster rotations we will face from Seattle and Texas. Yes--the average age of our starting rotation is 23. Yes--that is our biggest question mark, and yes--that's an important component of team; perhaps the most important. But these young guys can throw, and success is chemical. We lost 25% of our games by 1 run last year. That will not happen in 2009.

If there is one thing i have learned from watching the A's this decade it is to trust Billy Beane. The man has a plan, whether it makes sense to me or not. When we traded Dan Haren for 6 guys, there was a goal. Two of those players landed us Matt Holiday. When we traded Rich Harden, we landed us a much healthier/dependable Sean Gallagher, and guess what, Harden is hurt and won't pitch this spring training. When we traded Nick Swisher, we unloaded one of our biggest contracts and landed Gio Gonzales and Ryan Sweeney who are both legit contenders for starting jobs. I dont even need to mention how much stronger these moves made our farm system, because our Sacramanto RiverCats team are defeding AAA champions. These moves over the last 3 years have had one goal in mind: 2009.

This is our year.

Wednesday, February 4, 2009

wild wild west, part 3

When George W Bush purchased the Texas Rangers in 1989, he probably thought they'd be able to improve; maybe win a division, maybe even a playoff series. After all, they were (and still are) the only major league team to have never done so. Little did he know the Rangers' troubles would continue, and deepen into 2009.

Having made a couple of small, inconsequential moves, the Rangers return with standouts Ian Kinsler and Josh Hamilton... and little else. They traded away Mark Tex to the division rival Angels, avoided arb with junior powerhouses Vicente Padilla and Jarrod Saltalamachia. Milton Bradley is a well paid Chicago Cub, and understudy Elvis Andrus will be learning the fine art of shortstop from 11 time gold glover Omar Vizquell.

Texas looks to post a 3rd place finish, and even that will hard fought. Seattle's moves have been based on a more established core of individual contributors, and Oakland is the one to watch this offseason. As I indicated last month, Anaheim is slippin' and despite signing Bobby Abreu to a 1 year deal, they are looking much less ferocious than last years AL West winning squad.

There is not much to be excited about in Arlington. Average pitching, average offense and below average historical significance threaten to relegate the Rangers to yet another year under the shadow of mediocrity.

Let's go Oakland.