Sheets to the wins

Pitching, pitching, pitching.

Athletics great Rollie Fingers has been quoted as saying "Baseball is 90% pitching". That makes sense, coming form a pitcher, but may seem a bit lopsided, as hitting, base running and defense need to figure in somewhere. Such an analysis would favor a club like the A's, who have made their focus to be building a stable of young hurlers (arguably at the cost of any viable offense).

The emphasis is even more understandable, considering the setting. Oakland's massive foul territory, cavernous outfields, and dense marine layer air all favor the pitcher, resulting in a .20 drop in batting averages. This setting, ideal for a fledgling pitching staff can dampen offensive production, and also limits Oakland's ability to attract free agent hitters.

So what does a pitching-heavy team, in a pitcher's park do to improve their roster? Sign a big name free agent pitcher. Obviously.

In a move that is sure to please A's fans, Billy Beane singed 4 time All Star Ben Sheets to a 1 year contract, at $10MM plus incentives. Not bad for a guy who didn't throw a single pitch in 2009. Coming off rotator cuff surgery and a year rehabbing, the 31 year old Sheets will either return to form, or fall short of the staff ace role he played in Milwaukee over the last 5 years. Oakland fans have their fingers crossed. Sheets' career 3.72 ERA goes a long way to mitigate risk of injury, or least make the risk worthwhile.

Whereas Sheets does add a veteran presence to a young staff, and a brand name to the roster, his effectiveness has yet to be determined. In classic Oakland fashion, Beane reserves the ability to trade him at the deadline should the As' fall from contention. This tactic has netted the bulk of of young talent in the A's system over the last 3 years, and helped replenish one of the strongest minor league systems in baseball.

This first half-commitment to the last 3 seasons has been particularly difficult for fans, but those in the know understand it. Each season requires an effort to field a competitive team, but a competitive team means 25 players of major league caliber. Those valuable pieces don't grow on trees, and often have to be self-incubated. The A's made their push in 2006, and continue to pay the price, having to re-tool, and re-aim for 2011.

So far the process is going well, at the cost of finishing sub .500 3 years in a row. Whether or not the 1 year addition of Ben Sheets accelerates the goal remains to be seen.

The Shift is On

The new year is upon us and the stove is getting hot. I haven't written an update in a while, so here is my first effort of 2010. Pardon the rust.

Defense seems to be the emphasis is Oakland's personnel strategies for 2010. In a surprising move, Beane signed veteran center fielder Coco Crisp, almost guaranteeing his agile outfeild glove and pedestrian batting average a spot in the starting lineup. Crisp is coming off shoulder surgery, and figures to need a proving a proving ground for his career going forward.

Beane also made an offer to high priced Adrian Beltre, one of the elite third baseman in the League, who also batted circa .260 in 2009. Unsurprisingly, Oakland's free agent sorrows continued as their front office watched him sail on by, signing with Boston yesterday for one year, at $10MM. Oakland's offer was not disclosed.

Oakland fans are quite used to seeing big names chose bigger destinations. Nothing new there.

But, a fan may ask them self why the great interest in expensive free agents who do little to fortify Oakland's lingering offense? Isn't that counterproductive? A more informed fan might see rising value in building a sound defense to strengthen the A's greatest asset--their young pitching staff.

It would seem offense is not the highest priority for the A's in 2010.

The plan was always 2011, according to Beane. The recent acquisition of top prospect Micheal Taylor adds depth to a promising young offense in Oakland's minor league system that includes the #1 hitting prospect in minor league baseball, Chris Carter. Crisps' one year deal seems to validate that premise, as his true value is not his bat, but his ability to keep outfield shots from becoming hits. With plus defense behind a stable of young fireballers, Beane seems to think another year of development for the rotation is necessary before making the real push.

He may be right.

The all-rookie platoon of Gio Gonzalez, Vin Mazzaro and recently repaired Josh Outman will be back and competing for the 5th spot in the rotation. All present tremendous upside and risk, as all have had shaky and dominant outings in 2009. This year will hope to separate the wheat from the chaff.

Trevor Cahill showed flashes of brilliance, finishing at 10-13, and still features a ton of promise for a 21 year old right hander. He will likely pitch in the 4th spot, and if he can limit the home runs, he may evolve into the elite young talent he was projected to be.

Dallas Braden enjoyed a career season, coming out of nowhere and achieving 8 wins and a 3.89 ERA while serving as the A's defacto staff ace. The jury is out on his ability to repeat that performance, which would land him a #3 spot in just about any MLB organization. Even still, he is not the question mark some of the other youngsters seem to be.

The true prize stallion is 22 year old Brett Anderson, included in rookie of the year conversation with an 11-11 record and 150 big league stikeouts. That is not achieved by accident. With some run support, his 4.06 ERA may yield a few more wins this year. It will certainly be enough to earn him the #2 spot, behind Justin Duscherer.

It takes a confluence of many moving parts to build a championship roster. Especially on a budget. This takes time and would seem to be aiming for the next 2 to 3 year window. The free agent signings of 2009 either represent bad judgement, or a quick fix to get the team through a year of experimental pitching. No one knows but the man himself. The experiment continues into 2010 with one goal: a dominant, young, inexpensive pitching staff to ride into the next decade.