Much has changed in the six years since Michael Lewis’ groundbreaking book, Moneyball, brought the Oakland A’s and Billy Beane’s unorthodox management strategies into the public sphere.
Tampa Bay is the reigning AL Champion, the Yankees spent a mindboggling $400 plus million in the offseason (on 3 free agents) and Oakland sits dead last in the uncelebrated AL West.
Could we all see this coming?
Some would argue that 2009 is an anomaly, a speedbump in Oakland’s next rise to prominence.
Some say it’s just bad timing; the market readjusted during a rebuilding season. Others, however, are more certain of the causes.
Moneyball has failed.
Billy Beane is a fraud.
Haters are unanimous in their outcry.
Just ask a Giants fan.
As they chase the NL wild card from their China Basin digs, they look across the Bay and see an aging, cavernous ballpark, a small time payroll, and a revolving door of Oakland’s most celebrated players.
They see bush league.
KNBR newsies coined a cute little phrase: “The AAA’s”… as in: all prospects, no major league talent.
Needless to say, Giants fans with short memories love this.
Unlike the A’s, the men in orange and black have not enjoyed a winning season in years, so they’re riding this wave for all it’s worth. Part of the ride means boasting a nouveau-riche dismissal of moneyball, as a concept, and Beane, as its executor.
Whatever Moneyball means, it doesn’t mean much in Oakland right now.
But maybe there is some value in what happened earlier this decade.
Maybe there are other franchises who have taken direction from what Billy Beane did a few years ago. Maybe a good example would be the Red Sox. Maybe the Yankees, the Dodgers, and even the Giants have followed suit.
So maybe we should qualify some terms. What IS “Moneyball”?
In its purest sense, Moneyball means finding value in undervalued assets.
As in Bobby Abreu or Jason Giambi. They’re old. Their best years are behind them, and that means they could come at a dramatic discount, like say: $5 million, as opposed to $17 million, which is what happened to Abreu.
Deals can be found when one is willing to reconsider “value”.
In other words: Buy Low.·
Conversely, one can exploit the market by trading away over-valued assets, like, say, two months of Matt Holiday, for five years of three high level prospects.
Because the 2009 A’s were not in a playoff push, the value of two months of Holiday is low. But to the Cardinals, who are trying to make the post season, those 2 months are an extremely valuable commodity.
In other words: Sell high.
The other essential component of Moneyball is finding undiscovered value by using new, innovative methodologies.
In Lewis’ book, the A’s realized that batting average and RBIs were misleading stats that teams payed too much for. So instead, they targeted palyers with high on base percentage because those highly disciplined hitters flew under the radar of other teams, and could thus be acquired by Oakland’s limited budget.
Both BA and OBP are offensive metrics, but only one was dramtically undervalued.
Finally, the Moneyball philosphy placed unpercedented importance on the draft, and building teams inetrnally.
The A’s could never sign a free agent like Mark Texiera. Small market teams do not patriciptae in the bid-high world of free agency, so they have to build teams through their minor league systems and the draft.
They used homegrown methods to develop homegrown prospects and thus built teams from the inside.
To the average fan, those all seem like pretty sound concepts.
But haters remind us that the A’s are 49 - 62.
Obvisouly Moneyball has failed, right?
Wrong.
The success of the Moneyball philosophy is not limited to green and gold. In fact, big market teams may be the best exapmples of Moneyball at work, and the greatest testament to Moneyball is the adoption of its practices by teams who didn’t have to use them.
As ESPN’s Buster Olney points out:
“Big-market teams, such as the Red Sox and Yankees, smartly began to drink from the same draft-and-develop trough that the Athletics, and others had drawn for years.”
Granted, the A’s haven’t exactly put up lights-out numbers these past few years.
There are many explanations for this, but perhaps the most convincing is what Olney suggests: that the secret’s out.
Once Lewis’ book was released in 2003, and the dirt-broke A’s posted three consecutive 95 plus win seasons, teams started to take notice.
All of a sudden, clubs began to reconsider how they evaluated talent. According to ESPN’s Howard Bryant, “Beane became the lead evangelist of a new baseball orthodoxy that emphasizes greater statistical analysis in the scouting and development of players”.
Baseball was getting smarter.
A new school of baseball thinking was being quietly ushered in.
The Boston Red Sox were early adopters.
In 2003, they offered Beane the largest contract in history to lead their club. He declined, and decided to stay in Oakland. So, instead, they decided to implement the strategies he made famous.
Boston CEO Larry Lucchino hired fellow SaberMetrics aficionado, Theo Epstein, to replenish their nascent farm system and minor league affiliates. They nurtured high OBP players like Kevin Youklis and Dustin Pedroia into some of the most fearsome hitters in the game today, and built stables of young pitching around prospects like Josh Beckett and Jonathan Papelbon. They also used their deep pockets to acquire big time free agents like Manny Ramirez, and, viola—no more curse.
As Red Sox Lucchino admitted:
“Billy Beane is a sharp mind. We tried to hire him, but what we've done since Theo took over is to take some of the quantitative analysis approaches and overlay them with the resource advantages of our market."
In essence, what Boston did was marry Moneyball with money.
The result: 2 World Series titles in the last 5 years.
Not to be outdone, the Yankees began efforts to draft smarter.
In GM Brian Cashman’s own words:
“Statistical analysis comes into play in defining the reality of the performance. Trends that show risk, injury, regression -- maybe you can catch that earlier because it's definable.”
The key similarity with Boston (and advantage over Oakland) is that Yankees don’t have to substitute one value for another. They can buy any combination of OBP and home runs. The idea that Brian Cashman’s checkbook is consulting Billy Beane’s notebook can be a scary thought for the rest of baseball.
More examples?
How about them Dodgers?
In 2004, LA hired former A’s assistant GM Paul DePodesta to bring some of that analytical Oakland A’s magic to the NL.
He took them to the playoffs in 2004 and went on to champion the tenets of Moneyball in San Diego, where he took the Padres to the NL West Divisional series in 2006 and 2007.
So, haters, please take note; Moneyball is NOT dead.
It is alive and well.
It has evolved into industry standard knowledge, and has improved the efficiency of any team willing to give it a try.
And where does this leave the A’s?
The reality is, that Oakland still sits in the bottom ten of all Major League payrolls.
Resources are limited. And now that Beane’s innovations have been exploited by everyone else, they face a new burden of having to re-innovate further advances.
At this point, rebuilding via trades has seemed to be the most productive route.
Clichés aside, 2009 is a rebuilding season. Oakland has five talented 22 year-old starting pitchers locked in for the next four seasons.
Despite this year’s numbers, Beane has to like his chances going forward.
For the remaining haters, consider this: no team aside from New York and Boston has won more games since 2000 than the Oakland A’s.
What has your GM done for baseball lately?
Tuesday, September 15, 2009
Monday, July 13, 2009
Casualty Report
Is it just me, or does it feel like A's fans have found cover behind an abandoned bunker at the All-Star break? Someone pass the first aid kit. The firing has stopped for a week, and we could really use this lull to lick our wounds and suppress the bleeding. Medic! Request paper bag with eyeholes, STAT!
"There are a lot of guys who need a break on this team" said Mark Ellis, who by the way just came off the DL 2 weeks ago. 37-49 at the mid-season break is the worst we've seen since 1999. It's been frustrating to say the least.
Casualty report:
Plenty happening on the front lines. Most of it falls into the "negative" category.
Today Sean Gallagher was sent to San Diego as "the player to be named later", thereby completing the Scott Hariston trade. Gallagher struggled mightily in the Big Leagues, giving up 12 earned runs in his last 12 innings. Although he's still only 23, and hence offers potential upside, his 7.14 ERA and 2 atrocious starts will have most A's fans happy to see him go. The reader can definitely put me in that camp.
Hariston is hitting .261, which, sadly puts him at the upper end of offensive production for the A's. His bat was sought to help a slumping lineup find some stride. His 11 homers put him in front of all but Giambi and Cust, and he is leaving little behind in SD. I like this trade, as he's also under control through 2010, which fills one hole beyond this season (with a guy we didn't grow organically... shocking).
With the body count totals rising, the A's sent a couple of minor league pitchers to Tampa Bay for journeyman 2nd baseman Adam Kennedy. Substantially less expensive than Giambi, Kennedy has proven to be one of Oakland's more productive hitters, and went from a bench role in Tampa to an everyday starter batting .291 and leading off for the A's. Sad but true, we've been utterly incapable of growing our own hitters. Instead, we've been forced to deal prospects or pick up elderly free agents at a price we can afford. Every now and then, we land a guy like Kennedy, having a career season at age 33.
Organically grown backup 3rd baseman Jack Hannahan was finally shown the door, being dealt to the Mariners for AA pitcher Justin Souza. So much for the homegrown product. Souza is a serviceable releif guy at best, but represents the top end of value for Hannahan, who hit a yawn-insipring .193 in 52 games for the A's. In many ways, Hannahan embodied the underachievement of the A's fledgling offense: a jallopy with a new paintjob: tons of potential, consistently meager numbers. He is the guy we paid too little for, yet somehow expected something from. So long Jack.
Josh Outman, beginning his professional career by going 4-0 was quickly becoming the dark horse rookie phenom until he suffered an elbow injury that led to season ending Tommy John surgery. Dang. He will hopefully be ready to throw next spring. Honestly, after a first half like A's fans have just gone through, Outman's injury felt more like "the routine setback of the week" than a devastating blow to the core of our young rotation. Bad news has a way of softening more bad news.
And it's usually a sign of even more bad news to come. Fellow rookie starter Brett Anderson was pulled after going 2.2 innings against Tampa due to tightness in his back. This is discouraging after watching the young man 3 hit the Boston Red Sox at home, for his first career shutout and complete game. But again, as an A's fan this year, one must re-adjust their threshold for disappointment. There is no verdict yet on his status, and A's fans can only keep their figners crossed.
On the bright side, we've seen signs of strength and poise from a young and unproven collection of starting pitchers. Well, what's left at least. That was supposed to be the A's big question mark this season: the pitching. Instead, we've used 2009 as a filtering mechanism to weed out the unproductive arms, and have come away with a nucleus of young, talented pitchers who project very well into 2010.
Granted, the filtering has come at a cost to our record, and being in the bottom 5 of all teams is never a desirable position. And as we all know, great pitching does no good when your offense produces 1 run a game. Ultimately, a fan needs to be able to find value in some part of this otherwise terrible season.
Dallas Braden seems undeterred by the noise. His hardheadedness has won him a team best 7-7 record, but that's more the result of poor run support than inconsistency. In fact, Braden has been very impressive, not allowing more than 2 runs in his last 10 starts. He missed his last start due to family illness, and returned to form Saturday, holding the Rays to 2 runs and locking in his 5th win in 7 starts. Braden was not the guy I envisioned earning the Ace spot, but he has, and with little support. Credit the underdog.
Vin Mazzaro, who opened his career with 15 scoreless innings has come back down to Earth, losing his last 5 starts, and sitting precariously at 2-5. There is potential all over this young talent, however, and he has certainly proven he can play at the Major League level.
The A's sent one guy to St Louis; newly anointed closer, 24 year old Andrew Bailey. This kid pretty much came out of nowhere, and went from a AA set up role to icy-veined 10 Save fireballer, with a cut fastball in the mid 90s that has helped him lead all MLB relief pitchers in strikeouts. He won't edge out Mariano Rivera for the closer's role in the All Star Game, but the mention of his name in the same sentence would seem to be sufficient for A's fans this year. Hey, it's something.
Player performances are one thing, but perhaps the true dysfunction lies with leadership. Manager Bob Geren's career record (and personality) floats lifelessly around .460 (187-221, to be exact). For some unknown reason, his modest successes have been enough to earn him a satisfactory approval rating with Billy Beane and ownership. This is a real headscratcher, and leads fans to beleive that lack of action and lack of passion are good enough for A's baseball. Yes, he's had guys traded away. Yes, he's had some rough breaks. But the numbers don't lie, and Geren has not done much to promote a culture of success with Oakland. Does it go deeper?
Personnel aside, this team does not feel like it has a rudder. Chemistry, fan attendance, managerial choices and comparative statistics all seem to come up short, all season. As we take a step back and evaluate 2009 at its mid point, one hopes some changes are on the horizon. Status quo so far has been tantamount to surrender.
The troops are weary, ground has been lost, and we're way, way past diplomacy.
"There are a lot of guys who need a break on this team" said Mark Ellis, who by the way just came off the DL 2 weeks ago. 37-49 at the mid-season break is the worst we've seen since 1999. It's been frustrating to say the least.
Casualty report:
Plenty happening on the front lines. Most of it falls into the "negative" category.
Today Sean Gallagher was sent to San Diego as "the player to be named later", thereby completing the Scott Hariston trade. Gallagher struggled mightily in the Big Leagues, giving up 12 earned runs in his last 12 innings. Although he's still only 23, and hence offers potential upside, his 7.14 ERA and 2 atrocious starts will have most A's fans happy to see him go. The reader can definitely put me in that camp.
Hariston is hitting .261, which, sadly puts him at the upper end of offensive production for the A's. His bat was sought to help a slumping lineup find some stride. His 11 homers put him in front of all but Giambi and Cust, and he is leaving little behind in SD. I like this trade, as he's also under control through 2010, which fills one hole beyond this season (with a guy we didn't grow organically... shocking).
With the body count totals rising, the A's sent a couple of minor league pitchers to Tampa Bay for journeyman 2nd baseman Adam Kennedy. Substantially less expensive than Giambi, Kennedy has proven to be one of Oakland's more productive hitters, and went from a bench role in Tampa to an everyday starter batting .291 and leading off for the A's. Sad but true, we've been utterly incapable of growing our own hitters. Instead, we've been forced to deal prospects or pick up elderly free agents at a price we can afford. Every now and then, we land a guy like Kennedy, having a career season at age 33.
Organically grown backup 3rd baseman Jack Hannahan was finally shown the door, being dealt to the Mariners for AA pitcher Justin Souza. So much for the homegrown product. Souza is a serviceable releif guy at best, but represents the top end of value for Hannahan, who hit a yawn-insipring .193 in 52 games for the A's. In many ways, Hannahan embodied the underachievement of the A's fledgling offense: a jallopy with a new paintjob: tons of potential, consistently meager numbers. He is the guy we paid too little for, yet somehow expected something from. So long Jack.
Josh Outman, beginning his professional career by going 4-0 was quickly becoming the dark horse rookie phenom until he suffered an elbow injury that led to season ending Tommy John surgery. Dang. He will hopefully be ready to throw next spring. Honestly, after a first half like A's fans have just gone through, Outman's injury felt more like "the routine setback of the week" than a devastating blow to the core of our young rotation. Bad news has a way of softening more bad news.
And it's usually a sign of even more bad news to come. Fellow rookie starter Brett Anderson was pulled after going 2.2 innings against Tampa due to tightness in his back. This is discouraging after watching the young man 3 hit the Boston Red Sox at home, for his first career shutout and complete game. But again, as an A's fan this year, one must re-adjust their threshold for disappointment. There is no verdict yet on his status, and A's fans can only keep their figners crossed.
On the bright side, we've seen signs of strength and poise from a young and unproven collection of starting pitchers. Well, what's left at least. That was supposed to be the A's big question mark this season: the pitching. Instead, we've used 2009 as a filtering mechanism to weed out the unproductive arms, and have come away with a nucleus of young, talented pitchers who project very well into 2010.
Granted, the filtering has come at a cost to our record, and being in the bottom 5 of all teams is never a desirable position. And as we all know, great pitching does no good when your offense produces 1 run a game. Ultimately, a fan needs to be able to find value in some part of this otherwise terrible season.
Dallas Braden seems undeterred by the noise. His hardheadedness has won him a team best 7-7 record, but that's more the result of poor run support than inconsistency. In fact, Braden has been very impressive, not allowing more than 2 runs in his last 10 starts. He missed his last start due to family illness, and returned to form Saturday, holding the Rays to 2 runs and locking in his 5th win in 7 starts. Braden was not the guy I envisioned earning the Ace spot, but he has, and with little support. Credit the underdog.
Vin Mazzaro, who opened his career with 15 scoreless innings has come back down to Earth, losing his last 5 starts, and sitting precariously at 2-5. There is potential all over this young talent, however, and he has certainly proven he can play at the Major League level.
The A's sent one guy to St Louis; newly anointed closer, 24 year old Andrew Bailey. This kid pretty much came out of nowhere, and went from a AA set up role to icy-veined 10 Save fireballer, with a cut fastball in the mid 90s that has helped him lead all MLB relief pitchers in strikeouts. He won't edge out Mariano Rivera for the closer's role in the All Star Game, but the mention of his name in the same sentence would seem to be sufficient for A's fans this year. Hey, it's something.
Player performances are one thing, but perhaps the true dysfunction lies with leadership. Manager Bob Geren's career record (and personality) floats lifelessly around .460 (187-221, to be exact). For some unknown reason, his modest successes have been enough to earn him a satisfactory approval rating with Billy Beane and ownership. This is a real headscratcher, and leads fans to beleive that lack of action and lack of passion are good enough for A's baseball. Yes, he's had guys traded away. Yes, he's had some rough breaks. But the numbers don't lie, and Geren has not done much to promote a culture of success with Oakland. Does it go deeper?
Personnel aside, this team does not feel like it has a rudder. Chemistry, fan attendance, managerial choices and comparative statistics all seem to come up short, all season. As we take a step back and evaluate 2009 at its mid point, one hopes some changes are on the horizon. Status quo so far has been tantamount to surrender.
The troops are weary, ground has been lost, and we're way, way past diplomacy.
Friday, June 5, 2009
building with steam with building blocks
There comes a point in the season when a fan refocuses his perspective. At 9 games back in early June, the A's have a long steep hill to climb to catch Texas, and now there may be more compelling storylines than our record.
22-30 is not good. But despite being bottom 5 in MLB, it's not atrocious either. There are still 110 games to play. The season is still early. But as reassuring as that is, looking beyond this season has been a more rewarding practice lately.
The A's started 4 rookies against the White Sox this week. The newly formed rotation of: Dallas Braden, Trevor Cahill, Vin Mazzaro, Josh Outman and Bret Anderson is by far the youngest rotation in Major League Baseball, and they're coming off a very strong week, having given up just 5 runs in the last 4 games.
Vin Mazzaro threw 7 shutout innings of 4-hit ball, in his MLB debut Tuesday. Both he and fellow rookie Brett Anderson blanked a potentially dangerous White Sox offense and earned themselves a big league win. John Outman improved to 3-0 with a 3.06 ERA on the season. Not bad for a 23 year old rookie. Although our bullpen erased a quality start by Cahill, he went 6 and gave up 3 runs.
As good as this week was, last weekend was ugly in equal measure. Outman's 9 K's were not enough to beat first place Texas, and they took 3 of 4 pretty easily. The Oakland offense just couldn't find it's step, and the bullpen is even more janky. So in tough times, the dedicated fan finds reason for hope in other areas. Oakland's silver lining may be our rotation.
The beauty of dealing in young, undiscovered pitching prodigies is that they're inexpensive, and under team control for several years. If these youngsters continue to picth as well as they did last week, the A's would be looking at the youngest, most talented and least expensive rotation in baseball. This last week projects very well on 2010 and beyond.
This is Moneyball at it's best. Beane built out this staff of youngsters by trading away any player with name recognition for handfulls of young prospects. Now we have 22 year old arms for days, and we've filtered through to chaff to find the 5 strongest. If the A's can establish a true nucleus of young fireballers; 5 guys with sub-3.00 ERA's, our chances look very good in fielding a competitive squad for the next few seasons. But that's a big IF. Yes, it takes some time for a rookie to adjust, and yes, it seems liek our guys have found a rhythm. But nothing is established yet.
Nothing hurts an A's fan more than playing to our payroll. Just because we are the 5th brokest team in baseball, it doesn't mean we're condemned to playing like the 5th worst. A's fans have been spoiled to an extent by enjoying superior management that translates to a disproportionately competitive team; at least over the last decade. 2007 and 2008 were especially tough, having made the ALCS in 2006, and seeing every big name player on that roster be dealt away. Rebuilding took its tool. And, though it may still be too early to see the fruits of those moves, glimmers of brilliance are visible.
Tonight the A's head back to Oakland to face a similarly underachieving team in the Baltimore Orioles. They hope to build on a 3 game win steak against a 24-30 club with the 3rd worst ERA in the AL. If we cant take this series, I'm confident we have no shot left at the West in 2009.
22-30 is not good. But despite being bottom 5 in MLB, it's not atrocious either. There are still 110 games to play. The season is still early. But as reassuring as that is, looking beyond this season has been a more rewarding practice lately.
The A's started 4 rookies against the White Sox this week. The newly formed rotation of: Dallas Braden, Trevor Cahill, Vin Mazzaro, Josh Outman and Bret Anderson is by far the youngest rotation in Major League Baseball, and they're coming off a very strong week, having given up just 5 runs in the last 4 games.
Vin Mazzaro threw 7 shutout innings of 4-hit ball, in his MLB debut Tuesday. Both he and fellow rookie Brett Anderson blanked a potentially dangerous White Sox offense and earned themselves a big league win. John Outman improved to 3-0 with a 3.06 ERA on the season. Not bad for a 23 year old rookie. Although our bullpen erased a quality start by Cahill, he went 6 and gave up 3 runs.
As good as this week was, last weekend was ugly in equal measure. Outman's 9 K's were not enough to beat first place Texas, and they took 3 of 4 pretty easily. The Oakland offense just couldn't find it's step, and the bullpen is even more janky. So in tough times, the dedicated fan finds reason for hope in other areas. Oakland's silver lining may be our rotation.
The beauty of dealing in young, undiscovered pitching prodigies is that they're inexpensive, and under team control for several years. If these youngsters continue to picth as well as they did last week, the A's would be looking at the youngest, most talented and least expensive rotation in baseball. This last week projects very well on 2010 and beyond.
This is Moneyball at it's best. Beane built out this staff of youngsters by trading away any player with name recognition for handfulls of young prospects. Now we have 22 year old arms for days, and we've filtered through to chaff to find the 5 strongest. If the A's can establish a true nucleus of young fireballers; 5 guys with sub-3.00 ERA's, our chances look very good in fielding a competitive squad for the next few seasons. But that's a big IF. Yes, it takes some time for a rookie to adjust, and yes, it seems liek our guys have found a rhythm. But nothing is established yet.
Nothing hurts an A's fan more than playing to our payroll. Just because we are the 5th brokest team in baseball, it doesn't mean we're condemned to playing like the 5th worst. A's fans have been spoiled to an extent by enjoying superior management that translates to a disproportionately competitive team; at least over the last decade. 2007 and 2008 were especially tough, having made the ALCS in 2006, and seeing every big name player on that roster be dealt away. Rebuilding took its tool. And, though it may still be too early to see the fruits of those moves, glimmers of brilliance are visible.
Tonight the A's head back to Oakland to face a similarly underachieving team in the Baltimore Orioles. They hope to build on a 3 game win steak against a 24-30 club with the 3rd worst ERA in the AL. If we cant take this series, I'm confident we have no shot left at the West in 2009.
Friday, May 8, 2009
signs of life?
Speculation abounds as to what the A's will do come trade deadline time. Yes, it's still early. The division is far from won, and all 4 teams have beat each other up pretty good so far. One thing is for sure, Beane will not hesitate to deal the big guns if we are not in contention. Right now, the gap is small enough to assume we can be.
Season summary thus far:
Our short term rental in Matt Holiday is finally flashing signs of ROI. He hit a 3 run shot yesterday to tie Jack Cust for most homers hit at 4. Still technically slumping, at .230, Holliday seems to be finding some rhythm, and it couldn't happen sooner. Giambi has yet to find his stride, posting a dismal ground ball ratio and hitting .225. Nomar is predictably plagued by injuries as is fellow infielder (and sugery recoveree) Eric Chavez, and neither have contributed much. Orlando Cabrera has played nothing short of gold glove defense at shortstop, but is hitting .220 with 0 homers.
The young rotation is holding up about as well as we could have hoped. Not stellar, but certainly not bad. The team ERA is 3rd in all of baseball at 3.77 . The young starters are 8th in hits allowed. Pair that with one of the worst offenses in baseball and you get, well: a 10-16 record. Pleasant surprises include Josh Outman and Trevor Cahill's latest performances, posting 6 strikeout and 5 strikeout gems, respectively.
The bullpen is pretty shaken up. With would-be closer Devine out for the season, the responsibility has fallen onto the skinny shoulders of submariner Brad Ziegler. Heavy is the crown, as Ziggy succumbed to a flu that kept him off the field for th last week, only to return Thursday and give up 3 runs in the 9th against Texas. Santiago Casilla sprained his right knee and left his set-up duties to one-year-deal vets Russ Springer and Mike Weurtz. Both have been decent, but not lights out. The true diamond in the rough seems to be young Andrew Bailey, at 3-0 with 24 K's through 19 innings pitched. If he keeps it up, he could find himself pitching more than just late inning relief.
The A's are only 4 games back in the West, and Seattle has lost 4 straight, earnign them a #2 spot, half a game behind Texas at 15-13. It's safe to say this division is soft, and ripe for a take over. What remains to be seen is if the A's are men enough to take it.
Friday, May 1, 2009
gone away on Holliday
While (sort of) enjoying a sick day this week, I happened to catch a day in the life of Matt Holiday behind-the-scenes on Comcast Bay Area. All told, it was B- entertainment value, C+ education value and surprisingly, quite telling as to the psychological limbo the one time batting champ now finds himself in while playing for Oakland.
Holliday looked uneasy when asked to discuss his new situation. His anxiety was thinly veiled behind a facade of optimsm as he conducted a sports radio interview by cell phone at his Malibu home (one can hardly expect he'd move his family to Oakland). So shaken up was the slugger that he actually thought he was fooling the listener by claiming he was happy with the move. He was glad to be playing for an entirely new team... for one year.
It must be tough, to be traded without warning in a contract year... to go from one of the best hitters parks in the majors to the #1 worst. The world must look a little different in the AL, wearing white shoes and being the highest paid player on one of the smallest payrolls in the game. It must feel like the rug has been pulled under you when you've just gambled by turning down a 4 year, $82MM extension for promise of even bigger dollars, and now those dollars are less certain.
It doesn't take a genius to offer an amateur blogger's psych profile: he feels deflated and cheated. He feels like his destiny has been taken out of his hands. He feels powerless. Naturally, his psyche projects onto his performance, and his hitting has been just that: powerless. Batting a pedestrian .240, with 12 stikeouts, Matt Holliday in green and gold is a far cry from the stud power hitter from Colorado. I guess feeling powerless can be tough.
Well you know what? Boo fuckin' Hoo. It's May 1st and Holiday has 1 home run to show for his $13 million dollar salary. That is both highly unexpected and totally unacceptable. All shake-ups aside, this is pro baseball, and he is a professional. The uniform should be irrelevant when it comes to production, especially in a contract year. If he still has his eyes on that big 7 year deal, Holliday’s next team will not accept excuses for an unprecedented drop in numbers. He needs to quit sulking and pick it up. Now.
The Mark Texieras and A-rods of the game can thank consistency for their record payouts. Well, consistency and Scott Boras. Without solid, regular numbers, player profiles can go from legendary to above-average in a heartbeat. Above-average players get 3 year deals. Legends get 8 figures. Holliday's contract extension offer from Colorado was fair and then some. He elected to let his bat do the talking and homer his way to legend status and legend dollars.... which was great until he was traded away to Oakland. Surprise!
Maybe Colorado felt snubbed. Maybe they knew they couldn't afford him as a free agent. Maybe they saw a chance to rebuild their roster in one feel swoop. Whatever the reason, the Rockies were somehow convinced to deal the face of their franchise to the A's. Holliday's opinion was not solicited.
The A's made an equally bold gamble in trading away 3 of our most promising young ballers in exchange for the slugger. Carlos Gonzales, Greg Smith and 2005 rookie of the year Huston Street made up what looked like a substantial personnel upgrade for Colorado. That trade seems to have worked out in Oakland's favor, as none of the youngsters has yet earned a starting spot.
So here he is. Point of no return. Holliday didn't ask for a trade, but he got one. He didn't ask for a monkeywrench in the gears of his well oiled, high altitude offensive machine... but nonetheless, here he is playing west coast mechanic with a bat. Attitude affects confidence, and confidence is everything in this game where performance pays. It's a compeptive game and a cut throat business, and there are no contracts awarded on goodwill (except for maybe Mike Sweeney). If Matt Holliday feels he's worth the biggest free agent contract of 2009, he's going to need to need to hit a few more homers than 1.
But hey... the season is still young, and the value of the trade for both sides has yet to be determined long term. Players go through slumps and hot spells alike. The future is anyone's guess, but one thing is clear: Matt Holliday looks unsettled, and he has a very limited amount of time to get comfy.
Sunday, April 26, 2009
Exhale
Exhale.
It was getting a pretty rough for a minute. I guess it's hard to be creative in the middle of a 6 game slide. But life is intact. The A's picked up 2 straight against the reigning AL Champions and we the dust has been kicked off. Giambi homered. Buck homered. The veteran of our young pitching staff got his first win, and the A's are on the board in all the right momentum categories.
The AL West is off to an unforeseen beginning, with Seattle having won 20% of last years win total... in April. They're hot at 12-7 and their small lead looks favorably on the 5+ months of baseball yet to play. Texas leads the league in home runs, and having lost some offense-heavy meetings, the hold 2nd place by half a game at 8-10. The Angels are in LAST place, and the highly anticipated and well staffed Oakland offense is inching the A's toward .500.
It wasn't the losses so much as the way were losing. Over the last 2 weeks the A's epitomized baseball futility. We were batting .200, pitching with 3 shut outs up until yesterday. We lost 12th inning and 14th inning heartbreakers on the road, and simply could not score when we needed to. Holiday and Giambi were homerless and the A's as a group were dead last in home runs. The word "anemic" is often used to describe an offense in these scenarios, but maybe "retarded" is more apt. The A's seemed incapable of outscoring their opponents.
But the ship has been righted. Geren gave Travis Buck the start, and he made the skipper look foolish for denying him the last 4 games at-bats. But more importantly, Giambi homered. To right. The last 4 weeks have seen more than a few line-drive outs, as defenses put on the shift for the big left hander. Today the infield was irrelevant, as Jason rocked a long ball into the bleachers like he did 33 times in 2008. OK. He's not broken. Our $5.25 investment is not a lemon. The pressure is off. Exhale.
A secondary (yet vital) aspect of our game is also looking good, with Dallas Braden and Dana Eveland posting wins againist last year's World Series runners up. Bradens 2.53 ERA leads the A's (as do his 2 wins) and it's also good enough for 9th in the American League. He beat the Red Sox and the Rays, and he did not look outmatched. This is kind of start you need for the youngest pitching staff in baseball. While some of the A's rotation has taken its lumps, others have demonstrated impressive outings against real-deal teams.
Ziggy is tied for 2nd in the league in saves. He's not a fluke. He's a groundball machine with a gold glove defense behind him. Orlando Cabrera broke an 0 for 8 slump today going 2 for 4 with a double. Russ Springer is earning his 2 million with an impressive 1.08 ERA. Garciaparra is looking like the free agent pickup of the year, coming up clutch in the last 3 games. Signs of life are everywhere at the Coliseum this afternoon.
7-10 is not exactly lights-out, but this afternoon, I'll take it. We took the series against the reigning pennant winners, and we did it with offense. The pitching looked good too, but we scored runs. You can't post a winning season while scoring like we did in 2008. Offense was the objective, and offense brought us 2 straight wins. The A's ride a day off into an 8 game road stretch and hope the bats can stay hot against Texas and Seattle, whose equally struggling pitching staffs will seek to cool them.
LET'S GO OAK-LAND!!!
Thursday, April 9, 2009
R.I.P. Nick Adenhart
The kid in red looked sharp last night. Cool. Calm with runners on... wiping the sweat from his forehead with his sharp-cornered red hat. Six scoreless innings of 6 hit ball, a 22 year old rookie reducing Major League hitters to groundouts and wiffs. He strolled off the mound and into the dugout with the quiet air of a guy who'd almost earned it. His cockiness was well contained, as if he knew his best days were still ahead of him.
This morning I find it incredible to think that talent is gone; taken swiftly by the force of a drunk driver. Rookie pitcher Nick Adenhart was killed last night in Fullerton, a few short hours after his professional career saw its brightest moment. 20+ years of practice... a lifetime of commitment: little league, playing catch with his dad, high school 2-a-days in summer, 3 minor league seasons and a very real promise of greatness... all taken away.
Being ranked the #35 prospect in pro baseball is no small accomplishment. Choosing a minor league career over a full ride to the University of North Carolina, Nick had seen his destiny and chased it at full speed. He improved quickly, and after an elbow surgery at 18 years old, he started making some waves in the Angels organization. Nick dominated AAA in 2008, and got a couple of shaky starts in the big leagues. At 22, this was going to be his year. The Angels suffered some key injuries in the rotation, and Nick was given the chance to prove himself. He did that and more last night, going 6 scoreless innings for Anaheim and striking out 5 Oakland batters. He looked sharp. He looked every ounce a big league pitcher.
Last night his talent bugged me. In fact, the thought of him mowing down A's hitters for the next 5 years scared me. I never thought I'd sincerely mourn the loss of a rival, but a tragedy like this puts things into perspective. It's just baseball. A game. For Nick Adenhart, however, it was more. It was his life--in a way most of us will never know. To be so good at something, so much better than the millions and millions of others who try, that he reached the very top--is truly remarkable, and the kind of achievement that most can only imagine. Nick Adenhart got to feel that, if only for one night.
Wednesday, March 18, 2009
birthright or wrong?
The weather was perfect for my very first spring training game. I bought my tickets 2 months in advance, took a week off of work, booked flights/hotel with plenty of time to spare. Everything was all set for a copacetic baseball vacation for for me and my girlfriend. A's vs Giants in Phoenix... pretty exciting stuff for a lifelong A's fan with roots in both cities.
As we settled in, wandered into the gift shop and over to the beer stand, my girlfriend and I drew some looks, and some funny comments. See, she's a Giants fan. SF born and bred, and she came well dressed for the event in her new Tim Linceum jersey. I, on the other hand was literally green and gold from head to toe (jersey, hat, undershirt, socks, shoes etc... flirting with overkill, even at a ballgame). "You two gonna make it through them game?" quipped a couple of walkers-by. It was cute, we played along.
We had great seats, 6th row behind home plate. We were early and made friends with some of the adjacent fans, including a pair of young ladies (maybe 22 or 23 years old) who were also from the Bay, specifically: Blackhawk, CA. Initially, they were very pleasant, knew their baseball and also found humor in our A's/Giants juxtaposition. They were sitting right behind us, so we overheard their conversation, which bounced around from A's clubhouse gossip to the new Lexus one had just gotten, to their first class flight into Phoenix. These girls were definitely from Blackhawk, and had little issue flaunting it. No harm done... I found them amusing and fun.
In the 2nd inning, the beer man approached and I hollered him over. I got myself an ice cold Coors light and my girlfriend asked him if he had any wine in his bucket. One of the girls behind us tapped her on the shoulder and in a cautiously condescending tone said "just like a Giants fan to ask for wine". She was kidding, but needless to say, it was not received well. My girlfriend was less than amused, and though I've razzed her using the same joke in the past, it seemed a bit out place coming from our new friend.
The can of worms here is big, and maybe it's easy to see where I'm going with this. The girl's comment was inappropriate on a few levels: First, she doesn't know us, or the fact that my girlfriend is 5th generation blue collar SF... a city employee and someone who takes great pride in her heritage. Second, the girl is from Blackhawk... one of the most exclusive and affluent communities in the Bay Area, an enclave which is known for fencing out the surrounding residents of Danville, a town not without its own affluence--certainly not without its wine drinkers. Third, and most significantly, her comment presumed that as an A's fan, she is part of the scrappy, fighting, beer drinking community that is inherently above the snobbery and wine drinking lifestyles of an aloof and baseball-illiterate Giants fan.
So, this incident got me thinking. As I dissected it further, I came to feel that the philosophical question is this: does any fan, regardless of background have a right to attach themselves to the character and identity of a team... even if the qualities embodied therein are contradictory to their own backgrounds? Furthermore, does the scrappy, blue collar appeal of the A's become diluted or less pure by folks of affluence adopting the stripes for fashion's sake?
I will not portend to answer these questions, as they are complex issues that don't have one right perspective. My most ethical answer is that a baseball team is everyone's: rich, poor, black, white, urban or suburban. Hands across America. As an Oakland native, my partisan response would cite the East Oakland location, the small-market payroll, the 2 dollar Wednesdays and the consistent marginalization of the club by pundits and Yankee fans alike. Is either answer inherently more right? Does an Oakland native have a more legit claim to the A's than someone from Portland or Sacramento or Blackhawk, and does their social class further qualify/disqualify this?
As we settled in, wandered into the gift shop and over to the beer stand, my girlfriend and I drew some looks, and some funny comments. See, she's a Giants fan. SF born and bred, and she came well dressed for the event in her new Tim Linceum jersey. I, on the other hand was literally green and gold from head to toe (jersey, hat, undershirt, socks, shoes etc... flirting with overkill, even at a ballgame). "You two gonna make it through them game?" quipped a couple of walkers-by. It was cute, we played along.
We had great seats, 6th row behind home plate. We were early and made friends with some of the adjacent fans, including a pair of young ladies (maybe 22 or 23 years old) who were also from the Bay, specifically: Blackhawk, CA. Initially, they were very pleasant, knew their baseball and also found humor in our A's/Giants juxtaposition. They were sitting right behind us, so we overheard their conversation, which bounced around from A's clubhouse gossip to the new Lexus one had just gotten, to their first class flight into Phoenix. These girls were definitely from Blackhawk, and had little issue flaunting it. No harm done... I found them amusing and fun.
In the 2nd inning, the beer man approached and I hollered him over. I got myself an ice cold Coors light and my girlfriend asked him if he had any wine in his bucket. One of the girls behind us tapped her on the shoulder and in a cautiously condescending tone said "just like a Giants fan to ask for wine". She was kidding, but needless to say, it was not received well. My girlfriend was less than amused, and though I've razzed her using the same joke in the past, it seemed a bit out place coming from our new friend.
The can of worms here is big, and maybe it's easy to see where I'm going with this. The girl's comment was inappropriate on a few levels: First, she doesn't know us, or the fact that my girlfriend is 5th generation blue collar SF... a city employee and someone who takes great pride in her heritage. Second, the girl is from Blackhawk... one of the most exclusive and affluent communities in the Bay Area, an enclave which is known for fencing out the surrounding residents of Danville, a town not without its own affluence--certainly not without its wine drinkers. Third, and most significantly, her comment presumed that as an A's fan, she is part of the scrappy, fighting, beer drinking community that is inherently above the snobbery and wine drinking lifestyles of an aloof and baseball-illiterate Giants fan.
So, this incident got me thinking. As I dissected it further, I came to feel that the philosophical question is this: does any fan, regardless of background have a right to attach themselves to the character and identity of a team... even if the qualities embodied therein are contradictory to their own backgrounds? Furthermore, does the scrappy, blue collar appeal of the A's become diluted or less pure by folks of affluence adopting the stripes for fashion's sake?
I will not portend to answer these questions, as they are complex issues that don't have one right perspective. My most ethical answer is that a baseball team is everyone's: rich, poor, black, white, urban or suburban. Hands across America. As an Oakland native, my partisan response would cite the East Oakland location, the small-market payroll, the 2 dollar Wednesdays and the consistent marginalization of the club by pundits and Yankee fans alike. Is either answer inherently more right? Does an Oakland native have a more legit claim to the A's than someone from Portland or Sacramento or Blackhawk, and does their social class further qualify/disqualify this?
Again, I'm not going there. I am certainly no authority on any of the issues in play. I do, however, see value in springboarding off of this issue, at this time, when my team's ownership is pursuing a relocation for business purposes. Fremont fell through. Consequently, Lew Wolff and his grand designs for a stadioplex reatil-ominuim windfall are looking elsewhere. San Jose IS the most feasible location within the NorCal market where he can hope to retain existing fanbase and hopefully leverage a fresh, untapped revenue stream. The logic is not wasted on me. I understand the draw, and the hope that corporate ticket packages and higher median incomes can promise. San Jose is, after all, a shorter drive from Blackhawk.
BUT. Will the A's lose something by leaving Oakland? I'm not talking about season tickets, money, advertisers, business concerns. I guess I'm talking about purity. Intangible, unabashed emotion-based gut instinct. I'm talking about a team playing with the spirit of its city. Would the Steelers be the same if they moved to Cape Cod? How about the Mariners of Compton? These conjectures are fictional, and maybe a bit silly, but I think my questions have merit. They are questions every fanbase has pondered in the face of change, and they are now ours. As long as I have been alive the A's have been synonymous with Oakland, and I can't help but wonder about the cultural implications of a move.
Bottom line; it's Wolfe's prerogative, so perhaps the point is moot. It's his club, and his investment. His track record boasts a lifetime of successful real estate development projects/sports franchise ownership... and the A's are his latest undertaking. It's up to him how he wants to position his assets, and right now: he wants to see some return. Fine, that makes sense. But fallout will insue. Those fans who live in San Jose have reason to celebrate. Those who live in Oakland might feel cheated or burdened. I know I do.
As I am sure to draw backlash, please note: this is an editorial. This is not meant to override, outsmart or trump anyone else's stance. I do not speak for any contingent or demographic beyond myself. This is just my take. I understand that I've adopted reverse-elitist tones here, and maybe that makes me just as wrong as the girls who prompted this diatribe. Please also note: I am not saying that people with money are bad. No one is inherently immoral because of their social class; that would be a ridulous assertion. I work hard to make my life easier than it was growing up, and there is nothing wrong with success.
So who is right? Is anyone? Clearly I have my own leanings, and maybe they're misguided. But my context is mine alone, and I'm proud of it. I've been taking BART to A's games since 5 years old. My parents were broke, so I earned each nosebleed ticket by reading 8 books in the Oakland Public Library's summer reading program. I love Oakland. I love baseball, and I love the A's. I'm a season ticket holder. I chose the A's EVERY time I play a baseball video game. I own 12 different A's hats, in every color and I wear one of those hats to any stadium I visit, regardless of whether or not the A's are playing. Ultimately, my fanhood can not be taken away from me... and I understand that I can not out-muscle anyone else's. Not even the gracious ambassadors from Blackhawk.
Go A's.Wednesday, March 11, 2009
fallen angels
It's nice to know the A's aren't the only team with injury concerns. This week has been a rough one for the Anaheim Angels, with 2 of their highly talented starting pitchers complaining of elbow pain. Ervin Santana, who inked himself a hefty contract extension this offseason has reason to worry now that initial optimism has gone dark:
Says Will Carroll at Baseball Prospectus:
"Bad news on Ervin Santana. He has a "small" tear in his UCL. He’ll rest and undergo treatment before a decision is made on the next step. Surgeons disagree on how complete a tear must be before doing Tommy John surgery, in large part because every arm is different. More, the forces put on those arms are different. Santana’s going to be risky, even if he’s able to come back. Very few pitchers are effective in the short term, with many showing control issues." Santana is easily the best Angel pitcher, at 51-37.
As if that news was not bad enough, yesterday Angels brass told the LA times that Joe Saunders, their #2 is also experiencing elbow pain. "His ball was flat, his sinker up a bit," Manager Mike Scioscia said — he still needed only 30 pitches to complete three innings. He threw another 15 in the bullpen to bring his pitch count to 45.
Saunders did his best to deflect the direness of the situation: "The fastball command still isn't there, the arm speed still isn't there," Saunders said. "I've just got to keep long-tossing to get my arm strength where it should be." Sure, Joe. Maybe the economy could use a little "long toss".
Any baseball fan can tell you, elbow/tommy john surgeries are a crap shoot, especially when you're talking about pitchers. Pitchers rely on tendon strength for velocity and accuracy, and without a firm grasp on both, their value at the Major League level can plummet quickly. A sinker left up is lunch meat for a big league hitter. A 78 MPH fastball is just as easy to prey upon... just ask Barry Zito (yes, this line has been used before and yes, it will be used again).
The Angels now have some choices to make: start the season with banged up pitchers (and risk further injuries) or call up a few minor league arms to provide a stopgap. Their situation is made more precarious by the increasing viability of Oakland's young arms. Trevor K-Hill, Vin Mazzaro and Bret Anderson have all shown the cactus league some impressive outings, and they are not leaving Anaheim much room for error.
I'm reluctant to root for injury, mainly because it's bad juju... and because these athletes are people too. Well, all except Yankees. But seriously, baseball is the most superstitious sport in the US, and sending those vibes will inevitable lead to an imbalanced cosmos, potentially at the expense of one of our newly acquired hitters. So I just stay away. That said, I shed no tears for Ervin Santana, and in fact; I wish him a long, slow, thorough and meticulous healing period.
Get well Ervin, hopefully in September.
Friday, March 6, 2009
elbow grease
The saga continues... Wu Tang, Wu Tang...
Injury concerns aside, Justin Duchscherer is a rock. Satisfactory (read: less than overpowering) speed, pinpoint control and good, solid judgment; a decent #1 for a rotation full of youngsters. Injuries, however, are par for the course in his career, and 2009 is no exception. As the A's rumble into week 2 of preseason, Duchscherer is complaining about nagging elbow pain when he throws, and there is a big fat question mark hovering above the head of our anointed ace.
Obviously, management (and fans) would like to know the extent of the injury, and the potential damage it could cause to our momentum-rich Spring. Surgery would mean certain death for Duchscherer's season, if only for the time he would miss. Playing hurt could cut short his career, period. For this reason' I'd like to examine the history and context of Justin Duchscherer's elbow injury, and perhaps offer an amateur blogger's diagnosis.
In his own words, Justin injured the right elbow in his youth, in a car accident. "Maybe chipped a bone". The elbow is not part of the string of injuries that have kept him benched the last few seasons (hip, bicep inflammation) but has definitely surfaced before. The dull pain and "tightness" he is experiencing are are typical for pitchers at this point in the preseason, but for a guy who has felt it the last 4 seasons, this is not a good sign. He's played through it in the past, but this time it seems to be more troubling.
"I was trying to throw through it, trying to pop something loose if there was something in there," Duchscherer said Wednesday. "I don't know what's wrong, I just know my elbow doesn't feel right. The timing stinks, but at least we know there's nothing structural wrong - my ulnar collateral ligament, all that, is all fine."
Pardon me for not feeling reassured. There was obviously enough concern on his end to get a second opinion from Angels team Dr. Lewis Yocum on the MRI he had done Tuesday. Initial physician advise is rest, rest and more rest. That does not bode well for those who would like to see the bugs worked out pre-opening day (those being: me, most A's fans, Billy Beane, Bob Geren, the rest of the A's roster...) But, what can you do?
My advise is to let him have his rest... and once he's rested up, ship him to the bull pen. Beane has spent the last few seasons building out the minor league roster in one main area: pitching. We have 21 year old arms for days, and should not overwork what has proven to be a very fragile pitcher in Justin Duchsherer. He was an all-star out of the bull pen in 2005, and could be quite valuable to Oakland in that role once again. It does seem counterproductive to crowd an already full bullpen with a guy who has proven he can pitch as a starter--especially when we have a shortage of starters. But, consider this: he provides NO value at all on the Injured Reserve list. And he's been on that list every year for the last 4 years.
If it's tendinitis... he can fight through it, pitch reasonably well and not risk grievous permanent damage. If it's a tear (and it's safe to assume it isn't, based on the MRI) he should have the surgery now and try to be back for the second half. If it's nerve damage, this season may be a wrap already--and the A's have wasted $4MM on him for 2009. So, again my assessment: give him his rest. Let him heal, and once he does, ship him to the bull pen and restrict his innings on the mound.
My thought is that he is dealing with scar tissue from an old injury. That could mean a couple things: best case, he plays through the pain and posts numbers similar to last year's first half. Worst case, it's permanent (or near-permanent) damage that will require surgery and limit his productivity to nothing in 2009. All the A's can do is give him sufficient time to heal, and reevaluate once the time comes.
Duchsherer throws 5 pitches: a cutter in the mid-80s (his best pitch), 4-seam fastball at (87-89 mph), 12-6 curve, 2-seam fastball, and a changeup. He owns a 31-24 major league record and has another year on his contract with Oakland.
Injury concerns aside, Justin Duchscherer is a rock. Satisfactory (read: less than overpowering) speed, pinpoint control and good, solid judgment; a decent #1 for a rotation full of youngsters. Injuries, however, are par for the course in his career, and 2009 is no exception. As the A's rumble into week 2 of preseason, Duchscherer is complaining about nagging elbow pain when he throws, and there is a big fat question mark hovering above the head of our anointed ace.
Obviously, management (and fans) would like to know the extent of the injury, and the potential damage it could cause to our momentum-rich Spring. Surgery would mean certain death for Duchscherer's season, if only for the time he would miss. Playing hurt could cut short his career, period. For this reason' I'd like to examine the history and context of Justin Duchscherer's elbow injury, and perhaps offer an amateur blogger's diagnosis.
In his own words, Justin injured the right elbow in his youth, in a car accident. "Maybe chipped a bone". The elbow is not part of the string of injuries that have kept him benched the last few seasons (hip, bicep inflammation) but has definitely surfaced before. The dull pain and "tightness" he is experiencing are are typical for pitchers at this point in the preseason, but for a guy who has felt it the last 4 seasons, this is not a good sign. He's played through it in the past, but this time it seems to be more troubling.
"I was trying to throw through it, trying to pop something loose if there was something in there," Duchscherer said Wednesday. "I don't know what's wrong, I just know my elbow doesn't feel right. The timing stinks, but at least we know there's nothing structural wrong - my ulnar collateral ligament, all that, is all fine."
Pardon me for not feeling reassured. There was obviously enough concern on his end to get a second opinion from Angels team Dr. Lewis Yocum on the MRI he had done Tuesday. Initial physician advise is rest, rest and more rest. That does not bode well for those who would like to see the bugs worked out pre-opening day (those being: me, most A's fans, Billy Beane, Bob Geren, the rest of the A's roster...) But, what can you do?
My advise is to let him have his rest... and once he's rested up, ship him to the bull pen. Beane has spent the last few seasons building out the minor league roster in one main area: pitching. We have 21 year old arms for days, and should not overwork what has proven to be a very fragile pitcher in Justin Duchsherer. He was an all-star out of the bull pen in 2005, and could be quite valuable to Oakland in that role once again. It does seem counterproductive to crowd an already full bullpen with a guy who has proven he can pitch as a starter--especially when we have a shortage of starters. But, consider this: he provides NO value at all on the Injured Reserve list. And he's been on that list every year for the last 4 years.
If it's tendinitis... he can fight through it, pitch reasonably well and not risk grievous permanent damage. If it's a tear (and it's safe to assume it isn't, based on the MRI) he should have the surgery now and try to be back for the second half. If it's nerve damage, this season may be a wrap already--and the A's have wasted $4MM on him for 2009. So, again my assessment: give him his rest. Let him heal, and once he does, ship him to the bull pen and restrict his innings on the mound.
My thought is that he is dealing with scar tissue from an old injury. That could mean a couple things: best case, he plays through the pain and posts numbers similar to last year's first half. Worst case, it's permanent (or near-permanent) damage that will require surgery and limit his productivity to nothing in 2009. All the A's can do is give him sufficient time to heal, and reevaluate once the time comes.
Duchsherer throws 5 pitches: a cutter in the mid-80s (his best pitch), 4-seam fastball at (87-89 mph), 12-6 curve, 2-seam fastball, and a changeup. He owns a 31-24 major league record and has another year on his contract with Oakland.
Wednesday, March 4, 2009
art of waiting
Negotiation is an art. Just ask Scott Boras, who as I type deliberately drags his heels into a late morning meeting with Dodgers GM Ned Coletti. Having straight up rejected LA's 2 year, $45MM offer to his client, Manny Ramirez, he seems to feel he can squeeze a couple more drops of blood from the stone.
Boras, like only the sharpest of negotiators can sense it. He understands that Manny is not just a frightening hitter... he is also in a position of historical importance to baseball. If they can come to terms with the Dodgers, Manny will hit homer #600 in an LA uniform. Colletti will see a return on his investment. Scott Boras knows his client's value, and will not accept anything less than the Dodgers extending themselves several million dollars farther than they want in order to get him.
It's no accident that Boras waited until the second week of spring training to conclude negotiations. As the other 31 clubs begin finalizing their rosters, the Dodgers are antsy to get started. They want their stallions in the stable. Desperation breeds doubt, and all of sudden there is urgency to get the deal done. I don't imagine Boras is going to lower the asking price at this point.
But this is an A's blog... so I digress. The art of negotiation can be practiced from many standpoints, and often it's the franchise which has to create value. Lucky for Oakland, we have Billy Beane. There aren't many GMs who can read the market the way he has, time and again. This year is no exception, signing guys far outside his budget at the onset. Giambi was earning almost $18MM last year with New York. He will be earning $5MM this year with the A's. Orlando Carera went from $10MM to $4MM. These are the offers that must be made when your team's payroll is in the bottom third of teams' payrolls.
What did Beane do to get players to accept such a huge pay cut? Is he just that dope? Well... Part of it is persuasion, part is the fact that the A's can contend. But a more significant factor is timing. Supply vs demand determines value. When Beane signed Giambi, there were only 3 teams in the market for a DH: Oakland, Tampa and Seattle. The free agent market included Giambi, Pat Burrell, Garret Anderson, Mike Sweeny, Bobby Abreu and Ken Griffey Jr. Too many bodies equalled smaller offers for everyone. Beane waited as the market saturated itself, and struck quickly enough to pick up the best hitter in the group at a huge discount. Burrell, the other top choice DH got a good deal from Tampa, who also acted quickly. The others have since accepted modest one year deals from Atlanta and Seattle... the result of poor market reads by their agents. Safe to assume Scott Boras was not representing any of those guys.
The same goes for Cabrera. Once the Giants overpaid Edger Rentaria and LA resigned Furcal and picked up Orlando Hudson, the available jobs for free agent shortstops equalled 1. That job used belong to Bobby Crosby, and will now pay $4MM... much less than it would have in January. Beane exploited shrinking market conditions to pick up the guy he wanted at a rate he could afford. That's the difference between him and Brian Sabean... instinct.
Like Scott Boras, Billy Beane played the waiting game better than his opponent. He went toe to toe in a staring contest and emerged unblinking. He understood his needs, but never allowed those needs to become visible. He understood the value of the free agents he coveted, but did not allow the perception of value to become real. In essence, he was able to make deals on his terms because he knew time was on his side. This is art. Art based on instinct and composure.
The tenets of moneyballing have been beaten to death by A's fans and advocates, but let's be realistic. Beane took over the A's in 2000. No Major League team has won more games since besides New York and Boston. New York has spent $1.7BB in that time frame. Boston spent $1.2BB. Oakland spent $460MM. This is not an accident. No GM has done what Billy Beane has done for their club. 2009 will go down as another year of deftly negotiated contracts and carefully allocated resources. Let's just hope all the front office moves can be justified on the field. Because if so, this could be a big year for Oakland.
Boras, like only the sharpest of negotiators can sense it. He understands that Manny is not just a frightening hitter... he is also in a position of historical importance to baseball. If they can come to terms with the Dodgers, Manny will hit homer #600 in an LA uniform. Colletti will see a return on his investment. Scott Boras knows his client's value, and will not accept anything less than the Dodgers extending themselves several million dollars farther than they want in order to get him.
It's no accident that Boras waited until the second week of spring training to conclude negotiations. As the other 31 clubs begin finalizing their rosters, the Dodgers are antsy to get started. They want their stallions in the stable. Desperation breeds doubt, and all of sudden there is urgency to get the deal done. I don't imagine Boras is going to lower the asking price at this point.
But this is an A's blog... so I digress. The art of negotiation can be practiced from many standpoints, and often it's the franchise which has to create value. Lucky for Oakland, we have Billy Beane. There aren't many GMs who can read the market the way he has, time and again. This year is no exception, signing guys far outside his budget at the onset. Giambi was earning almost $18MM last year with New York. He will be earning $5MM this year with the A's. Orlando Carera went from $10MM to $4MM. These are the offers that must be made when your team's payroll is in the bottom third of teams' payrolls.
What did Beane do to get players to accept such a huge pay cut? Is he just that dope? Well... Part of it is persuasion, part is the fact that the A's can contend. But a more significant factor is timing. Supply vs demand determines value. When Beane signed Giambi, there were only 3 teams in the market for a DH: Oakland, Tampa and Seattle. The free agent market included Giambi, Pat Burrell, Garret Anderson, Mike Sweeny, Bobby Abreu and Ken Griffey Jr. Too many bodies equalled smaller offers for everyone. Beane waited as the market saturated itself, and struck quickly enough to pick up the best hitter in the group at a huge discount. Burrell, the other top choice DH got a good deal from Tampa, who also acted quickly. The others have since accepted modest one year deals from Atlanta and Seattle... the result of poor market reads by their agents. Safe to assume Scott Boras was not representing any of those guys.
The same goes for Cabrera. Once the Giants overpaid Edger Rentaria and LA resigned Furcal and picked up Orlando Hudson, the available jobs for free agent shortstops equalled 1. That job used belong to Bobby Crosby, and will now pay $4MM... much less than it would have in January. Beane exploited shrinking market conditions to pick up the guy he wanted at a rate he could afford. That's the difference between him and Brian Sabean... instinct.
Like Scott Boras, Billy Beane played the waiting game better than his opponent. He went toe to toe in a staring contest and emerged unblinking. He understood his needs, but never allowed those needs to become visible. He understood the value of the free agents he coveted, but did not allow the perception of value to become real. In essence, he was able to make deals on his terms because he knew time was on his side. This is art. Art based on instinct and composure.
The tenets of moneyballing have been beaten to death by A's fans and advocates, but let's be realistic. Beane took over the A's in 2000. No Major League team has won more games since besides New York and Boston. New York has spent $1.7BB in that time frame. Boston spent $1.2BB. Oakland spent $460MM. This is not an accident. No GM has done what Billy Beane has done for their club. 2009 will go down as another year of deftly negotiated contracts and carefully allocated resources. Let's just hope all the front office moves can be justified on the field. Because if so, this could be a big year for Oakland.
Friday, February 27, 2009
musical chairs and the burden of youth
Who will it be? The coveted fifth spot in Oakland's rotation remains unclaimed, and the competition is not letting up. For a team very much in contention, boasting an offense with newly acquired starpower, the chance to anchor a Major League starting rotation is one hell of a brass ring.
Duke, Sean Gallagher, Dana Eveland and Gio Gonzalez can all but assume they have locked down spots as starters. That fifth spot, however, remains a mystery to A's fans and management alike. The candidates: Dallas Braden Josh Outman, Trevor Cahill, and Edgar Gonzalez. The median age: 23. Combined games of Major League experience: about 70. This group is young, talented, and largely unproven at the pro level.
Let's take a look at the crop:
Braden is easily the most battle tested of the group. Posting a 5-4 record in 2008, he's appeared in 39 games for Oakland over the last 2 years. Braden has decent power, with a fastball in the mid 90's, a hard slider and a unique knuckler/screwball pitch he calls "the scrooge". Bob Geren seems to like him, which will help his cause. At 26 years, he is also the oldest member of the Atheltics hopeful.
Outman could be the dark horse. Once regarded as a top 15 prospect in the Phillies organization, the 24year old southpaw came over in the trade for Joe Blanton and played in 6 games at the end of last year's inconsequential season. He gave up a disappointing 34 hits in 25 innings and definitely took his lumps in his first look at big league hitting. Outman boasts a hard fastball with movement and relies on a deceptive (sometimes inaccurate) changeup to deliver strikeouts. He posted 19 in those 6 games.
20 year old Trevor Cahill is probably the most highly anticipated of the group... and the farthest from game day ready. Despite representing the USA in Beijing Olympics, the A's have limited his time to A and AA appearances. He's dominated at every level so far, but is still being cultivated for a big league roster spot.
Last year Edgar Gonzales finished a lackluster 1-3 with a 6.0ERA for the Arizona Diamondbacks (similar to his 06 and 07 numbers). He impressed A's brass this week with a 100 pitch session, facing a number of A's batters and showing good change in speed, location and instinct. But, the difference between bullpen sessions and game time performance is huge. His big league numbers leave much to be desired. At 25 years old, he has time to work out the bugs, even if it has to be at AAA for another year.
So who will it be? Whereas we don't know that yet, we do know the 4 designated starters (aside from Duke) are also young and yet to be challenged by a 162 game season. Moves have been made to address this.
This offseason Billy Beane signed veteran relievers Michael Weurtz and Russ Springer, and is still eyeing former Minnesota Twin Dennys Reyes. These arms in combination with proven entities Santiago Casilla, Joey Devine, Brad Zeigler and Jerry Blevins look to shore up what is arguably the top stable of relief pitchers in the Majors. With a deep and talented bullpen backing the starting 5 up (and shortening their innings on the mound) the support is there, and the potential for damage is substantially mitigated. It seems Beane was very deliberate in building a safety net for Oakland's young starters--with good reason.
So as week 1 of preseason approaches its conclusion, the A's know what they need to work on. The promise of youth stares down the AL West, and Beane has his work cut out for him. It would be nice to see some of these young guys step it up and once again validate his instincts.
Duke, Sean Gallagher, Dana Eveland and Gio Gonzalez can all but assume they have locked down spots as starters. That fifth spot, however, remains a mystery to A's fans and management alike. The candidates: Dallas Braden Josh Outman, Trevor Cahill, and Edgar Gonzalez. The median age: 23. Combined games of Major League experience: about 70. This group is young, talented, and largely unproven at the pro level.
Let's take a look at the crop:
Braden is easily the most battle tested of the group. Posting a 5-4 record in 2008, he's appeared in 39 games for Oakland over the last 2 years. Braden has decent power, with a fastball in the mid 90's, a hard slider and a unique knuckler/screwball pitch he calls "the scrooge". Bob Geren seems to like him, which will help his cause. At 26 years, he is also the oldest member of the Atheltics hopeful.
Outman could be the dark horse. Once regarded as a top 15 prospect in the Phillies organization, the 24year old southpaw came over in the trade for Joe Blanton and played in 6 games at the end of last year's inconsequential season. He gave up a disappointing 34 hits in 25 innings and definitely took his lumps in his first look at big league hitting. Outman boasts a hard fastball with movement and relies on a deceptive (sometimes inaccurate) changeup to deliver strikeouts. He posted 19 in those 6 games.
20 year old Trevor Cahill is probably the most highly anticipated of the group... and the farthest from game day ready. Despite representing the USA in Beijing Olympics, the A's have limited his time to A and AA appearances. He's dominated at every level so far, but is still being cultivated for a big league roster spot.
Last year Edgar Gonzales finished a lackluster 1-3 with a 6.0ERA for the Arizona Diamondbacks (similar to his 06 and 07 numbers). He impressed A's brass this week with a 100 pitch session, facing a number of A's batters and showing good change in speed, location and instinct. But, the difference between bullpen sessions and game time performance is huge. His big league numbers leave much to be desired. At 25 years old, he has time to work out the bugs, even if it has to be at AAA for another year.
So who will it be? Whereas we don't know that yet, we do know the 4 designated starters (aside from Duke) are also young and yet to be challenged by a 162 game season. Moves have been made to address this.
This offseason Billy Beane signed veteran relievers Michael Weurtz and Russ Springer, and is still eyeing former Minnesota Twin Dennys Reyes. These arms in combination with proven entities Santiago Casilla, Joey Devine, Brad Zeigler and Jerry Blevins look to shore up what is arguably the top stable of relief pitchers in the Majors. With a deep and talented bullpen backing the starting 5 up (and shortening their innings on the mound) the support is there, and the potential for damage is substantially mitigated. It seems Beane was very deliberate in building a safety net for Oakland's young starters--with good reason.
So as week 1 of preseason approaches its conclusion, the A's know what they need to work on. The promise of youth stares down the AL West, and Beane has his work cut out for him. It would be nice to see some of these young guys step it up and once again validate his instincts.
Wednesday, February 25, 2009
methodized madness
Today is the first day of Spring Training and hopes are high in Phoenix. Mark my words: this is our year. I felt the same tremors in 2006, when Beane made moves to add Milton Bradley and Mark Kotsay to the lineup (we didn't win a pennant, but I'll take an ALCS appearance any time). The embers of hope began flickering in Novemeber when we landed Matt Holliday in the blockbuster trade with Colorado. They began to grow with the news of Giambi and Russ Springer. Rickey Henderson's HOF induction got A's fans even hotter, and current rumors of Garciappra and O-Cab joining the squad do little to temper the glow. Honestly, that's the best word I can summon for the 2009 preseason: glow.
The buzz is glowing. The smiles on the players faces are glowing. The media coverage is glowing and Oakland is no longer the bastard child of the AL West. Our new face is much more becoming: contenders.
Favorites? Perhaps. Detractors would grant that honor to the Angels on principle, but to me that's shortsighted. No one can argue that Oakland's offseason was more productive and impressive than any other team in the division. We cleaned up. Also beyond debate is the fact that our offense has been substantially upgraded. The best part? We aren't done. Orlando Cabrera's options are looking slimmer by the day now that The Dodgers landed Orlando Hudson and Edgar Rentaria is a Giant. He still wants the $5MM but I think Oakland's $3MM offer is becoming much more attractive, considering there are no others.
Buck. Ellis. Giambi. Holliday. Cust. Chavez. Cabrera. Garciaparra. Suzuki. That's a lineup to respect. Especially considering the lackluster rotations we will face from Seattle and Texas. Yes--the average age of our starting rotation is 23. Yes--that is our biggest question mark, and yes--that's an important component of team; perhaps the most important. But these young guys can throw, and success is chemical. We lost 25% of our games by 1 run last year. That will not happen in 2009.
If there is one thing i have learned from watching the A's this decade it is to trust Billy Beane. The man has a plan, whether it makes sense to me or not. When we traded Dan Haren for 6 guys, there was a goal. Two of those players landed us Matt Holiday. When we traded Rich Harden, we landed us a much healthier/dependable Sean Gallagher, and guess what, Harden is hurt and won't pitch this spring training. When we traded Nick Swisher, we unloaded one of our biggest contracts and landed Gio Gonzales and Ryan Sweeney who are both legit contenders for starting jobs. I dont even need to mention how much stronger these moves made our farm system, because our Sacramanto RiverCats team are defeding AAA champions. These moves over the last 3 years have had one goal in mind: 2009.
This is our year.
The buzz is glowing. The smiles on the players faces are glowing. The media coverage is glowing and Oakland is no longer the bastard child of the AL West. Our new face is much more becoming: contenders.
Favorites? Perhaps. Detractors would grant that honor to the Angels on principle, but to me that's shortsighted. No one can argue that Oakland's offseason was more productive and impressive than any other team in the division. We cleaned up. Also beyond debate is the fact that our offense has been substantially upgraded. The best part? We aren't done. Orlando Cabrera's options are looking slimmer by the day now that The Dodgers landed Orlando Hudson and Edgar Rentaria is a Giant. He still wants the $5MM but I think Oakland's $3MM offer is becoming much more attractive, considering there are no others.
Buck. Ellis. Giambi. Holliday. Cust. Chavez. Cabrera. Garciaparra. Suzuki. That's a lineup to respect. Especially considering the lackluster rotations we will face from Seattle and Texas. Yes--the average age of our starting rotation is 23. Yes--that is our biggest question mark, and yes--that's an important component of team; perhaps the most important. But these young guys can throw, and success is chemical. We lost 25% of our games by 1 run last year. That will not happen in 2009.
If there is one thing i have learned from watching the A's this decade it is to trust Billy Beane. The man has a plan, whether it makes sense to me or not. When we traded Dan Haren for 6 guys, there was a goal. Two of those players landed us Matt Holiday. When we traded Rich Harden, we landed us a much healthier/dependable Sean Gallagher, and guess what, Harden is hurt and won't pitch this spring training. When we traded Nick Swisher, we unloaded one of our biggest contracts and landed Gio Gonzales and Ryan Sweeney who are both legit contenders for starting jobs. I dont even need to mention how much stronger these moves made our farm system, because our Sacramanto RiverCats team are defeding AAA champions. These moves over the last 3 years have had one goal in mind: 2009.
This is our year.
Wednesday, February 4, 2009
wild wild west, part 3
When George W Bush purchased the Texas Rangers in 1989, he probably thought they'd be able to improve; maybe win a division, maybe even a playoff series. After all, they were (and still are) the only major league team to have never done so. Little did he know the Rangers' troubles would continue, and deepen into 2009.
Having made a couple of small, inconsequential moves, the Rangers return with standouts Ian Kinsler and Josh Hamilton... and little else. They traded away Mark Tex to the division rival Angels, avoided arb with junior powerhouses Vicente Padilla and Jarrod Saltalamachia. Milton Bradley is a well paid Chicago Cub, and understudy Elvis Andrus will be learning the fine art of shortstop from 11 time gold glover Omar Vizquell.
Texas looks to post a 3rd place finish, and even that will hard fought. Seattle's moves have been based on a more established core of individual contributors, and Oakland is the one to watch this offseason. As I indicated last month, Anaheim is slippin' and despite signing Bobby Abreu to a 1 year deal, they are looking much less ferocious than last years AL West winning squad.
There is not much to be excited about in Arlington. Average pitching, average offense and below average historical significance threaten to relegate the Rangers to yet another year under the shadow of mediocrity.
Let's go Oakland.
Having made a couple of small, inconsequential moves, the Rangers return with standouts Ian Kinsler and Josh Hamilton... and little else. They traded away Mark Tex to the division rival Angels, avoided arb with junior powerhouses Vicente Padilla and Jarrod Saltalamachia. Milton Bradley is a well paid Chicago Cub, and understudy Elvis Andrus will be learning the fine art of shortstop from 11 time gold glover Omar Vizquell.
Texas looks to post a 3rd place finish, and even that will hard fought. Seattle's moves have been based on a more established core of individual contributors, and Oakland is the one to watch this offseason. As I indicated last month, Anaheim is slippin' and despite signing Bobby Abreu to a 1 year deal, they are looking much less ferocious than last years AL West winning squad.
There is not much to be excited about in Arlington. Average pitching, average offense and below average historical significance threaten to relegate the Rangers to yet another year under the shadow of mediocrity.
Let's go Oakland.
Friday, January 30, 2009
wild wild west, part 2
part 2:
Mike Sweeney didn't do much for Oakland last year. He hit 2 homers in 126 at bats after coming over from Kansas City, where he played 13 seasons and earned 5 all star appearances. And whereas those 2 shots were very rewarding, they weren't enough to propel the A's out of 3rd place. The Seattle Mariners seem to think he's capable of more, and signed him to a minor league deal this week.
Something is going on in Seattle, whose front office has been sniffing around the likes of Bobby Abreu and Ken Griffey Jr. The Mariners have been frenetic in both the free agent and trade markets, and seem desperate to redeem themselves from a humiliating 101 loss season in 2008. The losses themselves were embarrassing, but the shame gets really thick in the context of their 100MM payroll. Seattle was the richest team to ever lose 100 games. Not exactly top honors.
This offseason has been a crash course in franchise re-org. In an unusually bold move, the Mariners made Oakland's long time bench coach Don Wakamatsu their new manager. Loved by A's fans, he has a daunting task ahead of him; a veritable balancing act of inflated contracts, aging position players and very, very high expectations. Wakamatsu's departure is eerily similar to former A's 1st base coach Ron Washington's transition to manager of the Texas Rangers, another AL West division rival. It would seem that our closest opponents think pretty highly of Oakland's management personnel.
This week the Mariners traded Aaron Heilman away to the Cubs for Garret Olson and Cedeno. The acquired David Aardsma from the Red Sox for a minor league pitcher, and managed to avoid arbitration with Felix Hernandez. They also resigned Erik Bedard, who looked like an oft-injured bust after getting big money as a free agent out of Baltimore... but inspired enough confidence in management to justify an contract extension. Most of these moves have focused on the pitching staff,
These changes do little to strike fear into the hearts of A's fans. Seattle's mismanaged assets are about as terrifying as Gumbi. Pitching was their most glaring inadequacy and they have done what they could to remedy that. The new and improved green and gold lineup proves to be a formidable challenge for the Mariner's rotation... Garret Olsen or no. Ichiro is still around, slapping base hits to the oposite feild. Raul Ibanez is now a Philly. Even Wakamatsu's departure is to be expected in such a competitive game. I see Seattle finishing 3rd in the AL West... with some trouble.
moshi moshi!!
next installment, Texas Rangers.
Mike Sweeney didn't do much for Oakland last year. He hit 2 homers in 126 at bats after coming over from Kansas City, where he played 13 seasons and earned 5 all star appearances. And whereas those 2 shots were very rewarding, they weren't enough to propel the A's out of 3rd place. The Seattle Mariners seem to think he's capable of more, and signed him to a minor league deal this week.
Something is going on in Seattle, whose front office has been sniffing around the likes of Bobby Abreu and Ken Griffey Jr. The Mariners have been frenetic in both the free agent and trade markets, and seem desperate to redeem themselves from a humiliating 101 loss season in 2008. The losses themselves were embarrassing, but the shame gets really thick in the context of their 100MM payroll. Seattle was the richest team to ever lose 100 games. Not exactly top honors.
This offseason has been a crash course in franchise re-org. In an unusually bold move, the Mariners made Oakland's long time bench coach Don Wakamatsu their new manager. Loved by A's fans, he has a daunting task ahead of him; a veritable balancing act of inflated contracts, aging position players and very, very high expectations. Wakamatsu's departure is eerily similar to former A's 1st base coach Ron Washington's transition to manager of the Texas Rangers, another AL West division rival. It would seem that our closest opponents think pretty highly of Oakland's management personnel.
This week the Mariners traded Aaron Heilman away to the Cubs for Garret Olson and Cedeno. The acquired David Aardsma from the Red Sox for a minor league pitcher, and managed to avoid arbitration with Felix Hernandez. They also resigned Erik Bedard, who looked like an oft-injured bust after getting big money as a free agent out of Baltimore... but inspired enough confidence in management to justify an contract extension. Most of these moves have focused on the pitching staff,
These changes do little to strike fear into the hearts of A's fans. Seattle's mismanaged assets are about as terrifying as Gumbi. Pitching was their most glaring inadequacy and they have done what they could to remedy that. The new and improved green and gold lineup proves to be a formidable challenge for the Mariner's rotation... Garret Olsen or no. Ichiro is still around, slapping base hits to the oposite feild. Raul Ibanez is now a Philly. Even Wakamatsu's departure is to be expected in such a competitive game. I see Seattle finishing 3rd in the AL West... with some trouble.
moshi moshi!!
next installment, Texas Rangers.
Wednesday, January 28, 2009
wild wild west, part 1
This is the first installment of my 3 part analysis of the AL West... more specifically, the 2008-2009 offseason moves (good and bad) made by the Anaheim Angels, Seattle Mariners and Texas Rangers. Needless to say, they will all be highly partisan, glaringly biased... and mainly based on how these team's moves pertain to the A's.
Part 1:
Angels are slippin. Free Agent ace Jon Garland is on his way to the D-Backs and that halo rotation is looking just a hair less dominant. Single-season saves leader K-Rod is paid in Queens, and will no longer prey on the A's in the ninth. Bad Vlad posted modest numbers in 2008, Tori Hunter is looking every bit his 34 years, and Garret Anderson may be unemployed by the start of spring training. The sting still lingers from Mark Texieira's snub of their 160MM, 8 year offer. And, to top it all off... the city of Anaheim brought legal action against the club for rights to their name. They gave it up eventually, but they had a point. The Angels are, after all, located in Orange County. All of a sudden, the big red 100 game win machine is sputtering.
The division rivals to the south have held a tradition of fielding strong teams for most of this decade. Much of their success has been predicated on a strong core of hitters, and supported by a diverse, powerful pitching staff. But as 2009 takes shape, the house Scioscia built is showing some cracks in the foundation. This is not, however, reason to relax.
Ervin Santana, Joe Saunders, and Jon Lackey are all returning to the rotation, and they won 45 games for the Angels in 2008. That's a pretty solid core, but they will miss Garland. They also signed closer Brian Fuentes (and his career 3.41 ERA) to a 2 year, $18MM deal in hopes he will be able to ice hitters the same way K-Rod did last season. Good luck with that fellas.
GM Tony Reagins inexplicably moved on free agent Juan Rivera while ignoring Manny Rodriguez (who is still available). This one puzzles me a bit, as they were willing to commit 8 years and countless millions to Mark Texieira, but not 3 or 4 years to Manny, with a career .314 average and a reputation as one of the most feared hitters in the game. He would also offer legit star-power (aka butts in seats, aka enhanced revenues). Oh well. Maybe they see Erick Aybar hitting 37 homers this year at the SS position.
The arbitration class was also quite active, although easily resolved, and focused mainly on position players. Chone Figgins, Robb Quinlan, Jack Taschner, Derren Oliver, Brad Thompson and Mike Napoli all came to terms with the Angels and avoided arbitration hearings; collectively a good omen for Anaheim. Whether or not retention of those players will be enough to win the Division remains to be seen.
Trade-wise, nothing to report.
All in all, The Angels are looking far less ferocious than the 2008 squad who earned the AL's best record (and ultimately choked to Boston). The market is what it is, and they did not emerge as winners this offseason. Which is a bit disappointing to Angel fans, I can imagine, considering their $115MM payroll and gigantic (and painfully, horribly garish) new Orange County stadium.
So. Where does that leave Oakland? Poised. At the very least, in contention. The A's young and relatively unproven starting rotation is seeking leadership from 2 time all star Justin Durscherer. If he can stay healthy, he could prove a viable steady and Ace... but that composure will have to be contagious to the rest of the young arms. Pitching will be our greatest concession to the Angels, despite their losses.
Our offense will now feature 2 former batting champs and a former MVP (yeah, he's old, but he still hit 34 homers last year). Chavez is healthy. Ellis is healthy. Travis Buck is healthy and ready to join the ranks of Oakland's proven hitters. This is good news for the A's, who boasted a League worst offense last season. This is bad news for the Angels, who are used to abusing our near-anemic lineup. Long story short, we are going to hit the ball much better against Anaheim this year. I do not see 100 wins as being a realistic accomplishment for them. Watch out California Angels... I mean LA Angels... I mean Anaheim Angels... I mean LA Angels of Anaheim. Pretty sure that's it.
Anaheim's own disneyland...
next installment: Seattle Mariners.
Part 1:
Angels are slippin. Free Agent ace Jon Garland is on his way to the D-Backs and that halo rotation is looking just a hair less dominant. Single-season saves leader K-Rod is paid in Queens, and will no longer prey on the A's in the ninth. Bad Vlad posted modest numbers in 2008, Tori Hunter is looking every bit his 34 years, and Garret Anderson may be unemployed by the start of spring training. The sting still lingers from Mark Texieira's snub of their 160MM, 8 year offer. And, to top it all off... the city of Anaheim brought legal action against the club for rights to their name. They gave it up eventually, but they had a point. The Angels are, after all, located in Orange County. All of a sudden, the big red 100 game win machine is sputtering.
The division rivals to the south have held a tradition of fielding strong teams for most of this decade. Much of their success has been predicated on a strong core of hitters, and supported by a diverse, powerful pitching staff. But as 2009 takes shape, the house Scioscia built is showing some cracks in the foundation. This is not, however, reason to relax.
Ervin Santana, Joe Saunders, and Jon Lackey are all returning to the rotation, and they won 45 games for the Angels in 2008. That's a pretty solid core, but they will miss Garland. They also signed closer Brian Fuentes (and his career 3.41 ERA) to a 2 year, $18MM deal in hopes he will be able to ice hitters the same way K-Rod did last season. Good luck with that fellas.
GM Tony Reagins inexplicably moved on free agent Juan Rivera while ignoring Manny Rodriguez (who is still available). This one puzzles me a bit, as they were willing to commit 8 years and countless millions to Mark Texieira, but not 3 or 4 years to Manny, with a career .314 average and a reputation as one of the most feared hitters in the game. He would also offer legit star-power (aka butts in seats, aka enhanced revenues). Oh well. Maybe they see Erick Aybar hitting 37 homers this year at the SS position.
The arbitration class was also quite active, although easily resolved, and focused mainly on position players. Chone Figgins, Robb Quinlan, Jack Taschner, Derren Oliver, Brad Thompson and Mike Napoli all came to terms with the Angels and avoided arbitration hearings; collectively a good omen for Anaheim. Whether or not retention of those players will be enough to win the Division remains to be seen.
Trade-wise, nothing to report.
All in all, The Angels are looking far less ferocious than the 2008 squad who earned the AL's best record (and ultimately choked to Boston). The market is what it is, and they did not emerge as winners this offseason. Which is a bit disappointing to Angel fans, I can imagine, considering their $115MM payroll and gigantic (and painfully, horribly garish) new Orange County stadium.
So. Where does that leave Oakland? Poised. At the very least, in contention. The A's young and relatively unproven starting rotation is seeking leadership from 2 time all star Justin Durscherer. If he can stay healthy, he could prove a viable steady and Ace... but that composure will have to be contagious to the rest of the young arms. Pitching will be our greatest concession to the Angels, despite their losses.
Our offense will now feature 2 former batting champs and a former MVP (yeah, he's old, but he still hit 34 homers last year). Chavez is healthy. Ellis is healthy. Travis Buck is healthy and ready to join the ranks of Oakland's proven hitters. This is good news for the A's, who boasted a League worst offense last season. This is bad news for the Angels, who are used to abusing our near-anemic lineup. Long story short, we are going to hit the ball much better against Anaheim this year. I do not see 100 wins as being a realistic accomplishment for them. Watch out California Angels... I mean LA Angels... I mean Anaheim Angels... I mean LA Angels of Anaheim. Pretty sure that's it.
Anaheim's own disneyland...
next installment: Seattle Mariners.
Friday, January 23, 2009
unspecific
brave new world and the rain pushes sheets on diagonal sidewinder avenue slopes like california or sacramento or bush and pine and all cable car street sign street sweepers go diagonal in sweater weather systems that refuse to call me back and offer me money cuz frosty glass ceiling skies stop short of subdued weekend with blissful promise sleepy eyes meet and smile when they are left alone in safety dim but not dark square shapes with soft corners confirm a careful touch beside elusive oval puddle jumps falling arches falling swift and unkempt smokey afghan carpet nag champa wafts where foggy afternoons replenish themselves on water and wine and television and ordering in and eating off paper plates while sports highlights can justify my love in cell phone text because quick fingers trace loyal patterns on keys sounding songlike and distant but sweet like sugar water on rock candy volcanic obsidian that shimmers black liquorish waves crashing consistent and unsettled loud like sleeping on the diagonal inner city sidewalk no parking here inhospitable unbroken and unsustainable right angles green grass and flashes take me back to the soft corners and sleepy eyes and careful touches and homeward bus lines stop and go and seal me in vaccumed and unharmed
Monday, January 12, 2009
giant shadow
Somewhere between the 30 minute line for garlic fries and my $45 bleacher seat, i realized i was in a very different kind of ballpark. as weird as it sounds... these people were wearing their goofy orange and black Halloween colors with pride. they remained seated when their team made a play--more interested in their conversations than the game, nursing chilled Chardonnay in premium plastic cups. every one of these people could have been a season ticket holder. for me, games at AT&T are more a lesson in social class than compelling baseball.
I don't know why the relationship is so adversarial, but it just is. they have more money, a FAR nicer stadium (that they don't share with Al Davis) and a fanbase that doesn't get tired of seeing them lose. they also boast a fraudulent all-time-home-run legacy left behind by Barry Bonds, and questioned by just about everyone who is not a giants fan. in most respects, I'm almost a Giants hater.... call me envious.
But rather than rant about the haves and have nots of bay area baseball, I'd like to explore the budding rivalry between A's and Giants. Catalyzed by a World Series sweep in 1989, and immortalized by the earthquake, it's a cross town beef like no other. The blue collar A's represent a plucky, fighting, rebellious spirit to the rest of the nation, whereas the Giants have often struggled to define their identity. Despite winning the NL pennant in 2002, the Barry Bonds Bunch has embodied large market mediocrity throughout the last decade, with glimmers of excellence in standouts like Tim Lincecum and of course, Mister Asterisk himself.
so as 2009 settles in, and the new rosters (and identities) take shape, i once again see the bay area teams in competition--i can't help it. i compare their signings to ours, and our failures to theirs. pointless? probably.
Ray Ratto (SF Chronicle) feels like Billy Beane has been out GM'ed by Brian Sabean this offseason. I think that's absurd. Whereas both teams brought in big name free agents (for short term deals) and attempted to address their personnel issues, the A's have done it without cashing out. Both teams still have positions they'd like to upgrade, but Oakland's only glaring insufficiency is at shortstop... and they've identified a viable (read: affordable) target in Orlando Cabrera. The Giants do not have game day starters at either infield corner... and that means holes in the lineup as well. the free agent market has been pretty kind to the Giants so far, but their work is far from done.
The comparison is also unfair because of an inequity in available resources. working class A's fans will commonly use the limited payroll as a fallback in defending their team (i already have in this post) although we've seen successes beyond our budgets. The Giants aren't exactly spending money like the Red Sox, but their new stadium and deeper pockets do make contract negotiations a bit less challenging... just ask Barry Zito.
Plus their division is soft. The NL West title is a very achievable one, with the last 10 being split fairly evenly among its 5 teams (with the exception of Colorado, which has never won). The division is ripe for takeover every season, and every season there seems to be a snail's race to the finish. As far as image goes, the Dodgers have a rich and eventful history, dating back to their days in Brooklyn, and it helps that they usually contend. The Padres and Diamondbacks have each seen above average results, including Arizona's 2001 World Series win over the Yankees (thanks fellas!)... but are also not very unique squads. The lackluster Rockies wear the worst uniforms in professional sports... so there's that. The Giants are somewhere in the middle; not terrible, not good... and very much without a clear "character" to reference.
With regards to Oakland, the NL West denied us World Series wins in 1988 and 1990, and gave us one in 1989.... against the Giants. If that 3 year stretch wasn't enough to spark a rivalry, interleague made it official in 1997. Now we play the Gmen every year. Since then, the A's hold the advantage over SF 38-30... punctuated by a 12 strikeout domination by Tim Lincecum last season (the most recent meeting between the 2 teams). It was pretty much his coming-out party, and it eclipsed an outstanding 1 run performance by our own all-star Justin Duscherer.
I don't know why the relationship is so adversarial, but it just is. they have more money, a FAR nicer stadium (that they don't share with Al Davis) and a fanbase that doesn't get tired of seeing them lose. they also boast a fraudulent all-time-home-run legacy left behind by Barry Bonds, and questioned by just about everyone who is not a giants fan. in most respects, I'm almost a Giants hater.... call me envious.
But rather than rant about the haves and have nots of bay area baseball, I'd like to explore the budding rivalry between A's and Giants. Catalyzed by a World Series sweep in 1989, and immortalized by the earthquake, it's a cross town beef like no other. The blue collar A's represent a plucky, fighting, rebellious spirit to the rest of the nation, whereas the Giants have often struggled to define their identity. Despite winning the NL pennant in 2002, the Barry Bonds Bunch has embodied large market mediocrity throughout the last decade, with glimmers of excellence in standouts like Tim Lincecum and of course, Mister Asterisk himself.
so as 2009 settles in, and the new rosters (and identities) take shape, i once again see the bay area teams in competition--i can't help it. i compare their signings to ours, and our failures to theirs. pointless? probably.
Ray Ratto (SF Chronicle) feels like Billy Beane has been out GM'ed by Brian Sabean this offseason. I think that's absurd. Whereas both teams brought in big name free agents (for short term deals) and attempted to address their personnel issues, the A's have done it without cashing out. Both teams still have positions they'd like to upgrade, but Oakland's only glaring insufficiency is at shortstop... and they've identified a viable (read: affordable) target in Orlando Cabrera. The Giants do not have game day starters at either infield corner... and that means holes in the lineup as well. the free agent market has been pretty kind to the Giants so far, but their work is far from done.
The comparison is also unfair because of an inequity in available resources. working class A's fans will commonly use the limited payroll as a fallback in defending their team (i already have in this post) although we've seen successes beyond our budgets. The Giants aren't exactly spending money like the Red Sox, but their new stadium and deeper pockets do make contract negotiations a bit less challenging... just ask Barry Zito.
Plus their division is soft. The NL West title is a very achievable one, with the last 10 being split fairly evenly among its 5 teams (with the exception of Colorado, which has never won). The division is ripe for takeover every season, and every season there seems to be a snail's race to the finish. As far as image goes, the Dodgers have a rich and eventful history, dating back to their days in Brooklyn, and it helps that they usually contend. The Padres and Diamondbacks have each seen above average results, including Arizona's 2001 World Series win over the Yankees (thanks fellas!)... but are also not very unique squads. The lackluster Rockies wear the worst uniforms in professional sports... so there's that. The Giants are somewhere in the middle; not terrible, not good... and very much without a clear "character" to reference.
With regards to Oakland, the NL West denied us World Series wins in 1988 and 1990, and gave us one in 1989.... against the Giants. If that 3 year stretch wasn't enough to spark a rivalry, interleague made it official in 1997. Now we play the Gmen every year. Since then, the A's hold the advantage over SF 38-30... punctuated by a 12 strikeout domination by Tim Lincecum last season (the most recent meeting between the 2 teams). It was pretty much his coming-out party, and it eclipsed an outstanding 1 run performance by our own all-star Justin Duscherer.
this year proves to be more equitable in terms of how the Giants stack up against the A's. they have tried to address their issues, and so have we. they've lost some players, just like us. i have ongoing bet with a buddy that the A's finish with a better record. this year i feel it's less of a lock, but i still took the bet.
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