art of waiting

Negotiation is an art. Just ask Scott Boras, who as I type deliberately drags his heels into a late morning meeting with Dodgers GM Ned Coletti. Having straight up rejected LA's 2 year, $45MM offer to his client, Manny Ramirez, he seems to feel he can squeeze a couple more drops of blood from the stone.

Boras, like only the sharpest of negotiators can sense it. He understands that Manny is not just a frightening hitter... he is also in a position of historical importance to baseball. If they can come to terms with the Dodgers, Manny will hit homer #600 in an LA uniform. Colletti will see a return on his investment. Scott Boras knows his client's value, and will not accept anything less than the Dodgers extending themselves several million dollars farther than they want in order to get him.

It's no accident that Boras waited until the second week of spring training to conclude negotiations. As the other 31 clubs begin finalizing their rosters, the Dodgers are antsy to get started. They want their stallions in the stable. Desperation breeds doubt, and all of sudden there is urgency to get the deal done. I don't imagine Boras is going to lower the asking price at this point.

But this is an A's blog... so I digress. The art of negotiation can be practiced from many standpoints, and often it's the franchise which has to create value. Lucky for Oakland, we have Billy Beane. There aren't many GMs who can read the market the way he has, time and again. This year is no exception, signing guys far outside his budget at the onset. Giambi was earning almost $18MM last year with New York. He will be earning $5MM this year with the A's. Orlando Carera went from $10MM to $4MM. These are the offers that must be made when your team's payroll is in the bottom third of teams' payrolls.

What did Beane do to get players to accept such a huge pay cut? Is he just that dope? Well... Part of it is persuasion, part is the fact that the A's can contend. But a more significant factor is timing. Supply vs demand determines value. When Beane signed Giambi, there were only 3 teams in the market for a DH: Oakland, Tampa and Seattle. The free agent market included Giambi, Pat Burrell, Garret Anderson, Mike Sweeny, Bobby Abreu and Ken Griffey Jr. Too many bodies equalled smaller offers for everyone. Beane waited as the market saturated itself, and struck quickly enough to pick up the best hitter in the group at a huge discount. Burrell, the other top choice DH got a good deal from Tampa, who also acted quickly. The others have since accepted modest one year deals from Atlanta and Seattle... the result of poor market reads by their agents. Safe to assume Scott Boras was not representing any of those guys.

The same goes for Cabrera. Once the Giants overpaid Edger Rentaria and LA resigned Furcal and picked up Orlando Hudson, the available jobs for free agent shortstops equalled 1. That job used belong to Bobby Crosby, and will now pay $4MM... much less than it would have in January. Beane exploited shrinking market conditions to pick up the guy he wanted at a rate he could afford. That's the difference between him and Brian Sabean... instinct.

Like Scott Boras, Billy Beane played the waiting game better than his opponent. He went toe to toe in a staring contest and emerged unblinking. He understood his needs, but never allowed those needs to become visible. He understood the value of the free agents he coveted, but did not allow the perception of value to become real. In essence, he was able to make deals on his terms because he knew time was on his side. This is art. Art based on instinct and composure.

The tenets of moneyballing have been beaten to death by A's fans and advocates, but let's be realistic. Beane took over the A's in 2000. No Major League team has won more games since besides New York and Boston. New York has spent $1.7BB in that time frame. Boston spent $1.2BB. Oakland spent $460MM. This is not an accident. No GM has done what Billy Beane has done for their club. 2009 will go down as another year of deftly negotiated contracts and carefully allocated resources. Let's just hope all the front office moves can be justified on the field. Because if so, this could be a big year for Oakland.